Bitcoin is down 36% from its recent peak, and the “bear market” label is 
already circulating across crypto X. But in a thread on Sunday, trader 
Cristian Chifoi argues that calling a regime shift on the drawdown alone 
misses the more tradable signal: what happens after the first meaningful 
rebound, and how price behaves around a tight set of time-based “seasonality 
windows.” Chifoi’s core claim is that many commentators default to reactive 
narratives after volatility has already printed. “The simplest way to 
determine if the Bitcoin bear market has started is not after we had a 36% 
correction, as all of crypto analysts online suggest,” he wrote. “The same 
analysts that suggested a supercycle in November 2021 on, while the price was 
pumping 100%+.” In his framing, the bear-market question is less about the 
magnitude of the drop and more about whether any bounce that follows looks 
like strength or a structurally weak countertrend move that fails over time. 
Is Bitcoin In A Bear Market? Chifoi’s first lens is a cross-check between 
Bitcoin and USDT dominance (USDT.D), which he describes as an “inverted BTC 
chart” used as a confluence signal. He also emphasizes timing as the primary 
indicator, arguing the drawdown has already met a minimum duration he tracks 
across cycles. Related Reading: Bitcoin Tailwind: Cathie Wood Sees 
‘Reaganomics On Steroids’ Ahead “If you are a trader or not, I also suggest 
you use time as your first indicator, and price as the second,” he wrote. “We 
had a 77 day correction from top to bottom already. The price couldn&#8217;t get 
lower. That is the signal, rest is noise.” From there, his bear-market 
confirmation playbook hinges on how far Bitcoin can bounce and how long it can 
sustain momentum. He outlines USDT.D targets: first around 5.5%, then lower 
levels like 4.7% and maps them to potential BTC levels. A push “lil’ over 
100k,” he said, could still qualify as a “dead cat bounce” if it persists for 
weeks without follow-through. In that case, the bounce itself becomes evidence 
of weakness rather than a green light for a renewed uptrend. His second 
scenario is more uncomfortable for both “cycle is dead” skeptics and early- 
bear callers: Bitcoin makes a higher high, potentially into the 
$115,000–$120,000 range, but then stalls out over a multi-week window. Even 
that, in Chifoi’s view, could be consistent with a bear-market transition if 
time passes and price cannot “deliver more gains,” turning a nominal breakout 
into a distribution-like top. “It is the same game!” he added, arguing that 
traders should be watching for the same failure mode at different price levels 
rather than anchoring to a single number. Chifoi’s second framework is 
seasonality, centered on a window around January 20 (plus or minus a few days) 
extending into late March or early April. He says he has been tracking this as 
a primary decision point since the start of 2026, and frames it as a fork 
between two paths: either Bitcoin rallies into that date to set a pivot high 
and roll over, or it forms a pivot low around that date and then pushes higher 
into the next time pivot. “A pump into the January 20, over $100-$110k would 
mean a pivot high and the continuation down into next time pivot,” he wrote. 
The alternative, he said, is “January 20 pivot low, and then continuation up 
to next time pivot,” adding he is watching this week’s price action “until 
Friday” for confirmation. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Take 
Profits: 41,800 BTC Sent To Exchanges At the time of writing, Chifoi leans 
toward the latter interpretation. “For now it seems pretty clear that we are 
developing a pivot low, and the next move is the opposite one versus what we 
had from October 6th until now,” he said. Chifoi positions most market 
participants into two “camps”: those calling for a supercycle or declaring the 
cycle framework broken, and those asserting a bear market began in October and 
ends in October 2026 “just like 2022.” He argues both could get forced into 
poor positioning if Bitcoin prints a new high in the coming weeks before 
selling off after April. His own risk case is broader and more time-focused: a 
new high followed by a sustained decline into late 2026 or early 2027, which 
he calls his “next important time pivot.” In that context, the operational 
takeaway is less about predicting a bear market today and more about letting 
the next rebound and the January-to-spring window define whether this is a 
reset inside a broader uptrend or the start of a longer distribution-to- 
downtrend transition. “Pay attention these next few weeks,” Chifoi wrote. “I 
do not know what will happen, but the plan is already set up and will adapt my 
positioning accordingly, whichever scenario plays out, because I already know 
what to do in either of the cases.” At press time, BTC traded at $92,836. 
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

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