Putin&#8217;s support for Iran complicates Middle East diplomacy, reducing prospects 
for peace and impacting global geopolitical stability.
The post Putin backs Iran in Saint Petersburg meeting, impacting Israel-Iran 
peace odds appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

Putin backs Iran in Saint Petersburg meeting, impacting Israel-Iran peace odds

Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin’s macro setup is turning bullish again, arguing that 
wartime spending, US fiscal deficits and bank-led credit creation could 
outweigh fears of a smaller Federal Reserve balance sheet. Speaking at the 
Bitcoin 2026 conference in Las Vegas, the BitMEX co-founder said Bitcoin is 
increasingly trading as a response to “wartime inflation,” not just the 
artificial intelligence cycle. Hayes framed the recent shift around a simple 
premise: governments are openly preparing to spend more on defense, and that 
spending ultimately has to be financed. In his view, that puts Bitcoin back in 
familiar territory as a liquidity-sensitive asset with a hard-money narrative. 
“Since the war has started, Bitcoin has outperformed,” Hayes said. “It 
outperformed NASDAQ and outperformed the SaaS stocks. And basically, I think 
that Bitcoin is now focusing on wartime inflation.” Related Reading: Bitcoin 
Fear &amp; Greed Turns Neutral For First Time Since January The core of Hayes’ 
argument was not that the Fed will suddenly return to explicit quantitative 
easing. Instead, he focused on what he described as a likely balance-sheet 
reshuffling between the Fed and the commercial banking system, one that could 
allow officials to claim the Fed is shrinking while leaving the broader dollar 
liquidity picture largely intact. Bitcoin Vs. The Hawkish Fed Narrative Hayes 
addressed market concerns around Kevin Warsh, whom he said investors have 
viewed as a potentially hawkish Fed chair because of his criticism of the 
central bank’s large balance sheet. Hayes said those fears miss the practical 
constraints facing monetary officials when the US government is still issuing 
massive amounts of debt. “If the market believes that there’s going to be less 
dollar liquidity floating around the system because of what Warsh will do with 
the Fed, then they’ll be bearish on Bitcoin and other risk assets,” Hayes 
said. “This is what we’ve seen in the media talking about sort of this hawkish 
Fed that’s going to come into place after May when Warsh takes over. Now, I 
don’t believe that’s the case.” According to Hayes, Warsh would be constrained 
by the Treasury’s need to keep the bond market functioning. He argued that the 
Fed cannot pursue balance-sheet reduction in a vacuum when the US government 
must continue funding large deficits. “At the end of the day, when you’ve 
issued $38 trillion of debt and you need to fund the government, the Federal 
Reserve will do what it’s asked to do, which is make sure the market is 
orderly so that people can buy this debt,” Hayes said. The Bank Balance Sheet 
Trade Hayes’ central mechanism is a swap: commercial banks reduce their 
holdings of Fed reserves and replace them with Treasuries and repos. In that 
scenario, the Fed’s balance sheet can become smaller on paper, while the 
banking system absorbs more government debt. “The point of all this is that 
the net effect on dollar liquidity is neutral,” Hayes said. “There’s nothing 
being sold, there’s nothing being bought. It’s just a swap. It’s purely 
regulatory fiction in terms of who is allowed to hold what.” That distinction 
matters for Bitcoin because Hayes says investors should care less about the 
stated size of the Fed’s balance sheet and more about whether the overall 
system is creating or destroying dollar liquidity. If debt simply migrates 
from the Fed to regulated bank balance sheets, the impact may be far less 
restrictive than markets fear. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Hit New All-Time 
High Fast On Quantum Fix, Capriole Founder Says Hayes linked that transition 
to US banking deregulation and specifically cited changes to the Enhanced 
Supplementary Leverage Ratio, which he said went live on April 1. In his 
telling, the rule change allows large banks such as JPMorgan and Citibank to 
absorb more Treasuries and repos, while smaller banks can expand construction 
and industrial lending. He also cited an S&amp;P Global estimate that the ESLR 
balance-sheet reduction could generate $1.3 trillion of new loans. Wartime 
Spending Becomes The Demand Engine Hayes argued that the demand side of the 
lending cycle is already visible. Defense spending, critical resource 
production and AI infrastructure are all becoming national-security 
priorities, he said, creating borrowers with government-backed demand and 
therefore more attractive credit profiles for banks. “Why will banks have 
demand for loans? One of the criticisms about this analysis from some of my 
other macro-fans is that they claim the banking system is not creating enough 
loans or there’s not enough demand,” Hayes said. “Well, we have a great source 
of demand that is the US Department of War.” He said banks would lend to 
defense suppliers, resource miners and hyperscalers as AI capital expenditure 
becomes part of the national-security framework. Hayes described bank lending 
as especially important because, in his view, it carries a higher multiplier 
than central bank lending, estimating that around $4 trillion in credit could 
ultimately be created. That is the basis for his renewed bullishness. Hayes 
said his liquidity chart bottomed in November of last year, roughly around the 
same time as Bitcoin, and argued that after a period of war-driven 
uncertainty, the market may now be ready to move higher. “I think we’ve had a 
bit of a chop. We’ve had a bit of a war. Now it’s time to break out,” Hayes 
said. “And that’s why I believe Bitcoin is going higher. I think my end of 
year choice target is like $125,000, whatever, it doesn’t fucking matter, I’m 
wrong anyways.” At press time, Bitcoin traded at $76,628. Featured image 
created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin To $125,000: Arthur Hayes Says The Setup Is Turning Bullish

Rising bond yields and geopolitical tensions may drive investors to gold as a 
safe haven, potentially impacting global financial stability.
The post UK bond yields as oil rises, traders eye gold amid political tensions 
appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

UK bond yields as oil rises, traders eye gold amid political tensions

Increased Israeli intelligence activity heightens pressure on Iran&#8217;s 
leadership, impacting market perceptions of regime stability.
The post Mossad chief praises &#8220;groundbreaking&#8221; operations in Iran amid regime 
tensions appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

Mossad chief praises “groundbreaking” operations in Iran amid regime tensions

OKX adds BlackRock’s BUIDL fund as collateral, letting institutions use 
tokenized Treasurys for trading margin via Standard Chartered.

OKX boosts tokenized RWA push with BlackRock BUIDL

The persistent targeting of crypto infrastructure by state-sponsored groups 
like Lazarus Group undermines market confidence and security.
The post North Korea&#8217;s Lazarus Group linked to $290M Kelp DAO hack appeared 
first on Crypto Briefing.

Cryptocurrency price in INR

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