Bitcoin’s recent inability to escape a tight trading range may have less to do 
with spot Bitcoin ETF flows than many headlines suggest, and more to do with 
the derivatives complex still doing most of the heavy lifting, even as futures 
activity cools. That’s the core argument from CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost 
(@Darkfost_Coc), who said Bitcoin futures volumes have been “cut in half since 
November 22,” dropping from $123 billion in daily volume to $63 billion. 
Futures, Not ETFs, Are Holding Bitcoin In Place The slowdown, he added, 
“partly explains the low volatility observed on BTC in recent weeks.” But the 
bigger point is relative scale: at $63 billion per day, futures still 
represent “nearly 20 times the volume of spot Bitcoin ETFs ($3.4B) and about 
10 times spot market volumes ($6B),” according to the analyst. In other words, 
even if ETF outflows are real and visible, they may not be the dominant 
marginal force setting the tone. “Many continue to point to ETFs, which have 
experienced significant outflows in recent weeks,” Darkfost wrote. “While 
these outflows do contribute to selling pressure, futures markets clearly 
remain the dominant force in overall volumes.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Long- 
Term Holder Dump Is Over: On-Chain Data Just Flipped Darkfost pointed to net 
taker volume, a derivatives metric used to infer whether aggressive buying or 
selling is dominating, as a cleaner read on why price has struggled to trend. 
He framed it in conditional terms based on prior market behavior: “Each time 
net taker volume has turned negative, Bitcoin has entered a corrective phase. 
When this indicator moves into negative territory, selling volume dominates.” 
In his telling, the market has been living with that bias for months. Since 
July, net taker volume has “generally remained negative,” he said, with one 
notable interruption: “A noticeable slowdown occurred in early October, 
allowing Bitcoin to set a new all time high, but selling pressure quickly 
regained control. Today, selling volumes continue to dominate and have kept 
Bitcoin trapped in a range for about a month.” There is, however, a tentative 
improvement in the same dataset. Darkfost said futures-driven selling pressure 
has declined since early November, with net taker volume improving from around 
-$489 million to -$93 million. He described that as “a positive signal,” but 
not yet enough to change the regime. “Liquidity remains weak,” he wrote, 
adding that ETF and spot volumes are “still too limited to allow BTC to break 
out of its current consolidation phase.” Demand Is Key In a separate X post, 
CryptoQuant’s Head of Research Julio Moreno added a broader framing that 
shifts attention away from chart-based cycle narratives and toward demand 
dynamics. “Most are focusing on price performance to define a cycle, when it 
is demand what they should be looking to,” Moreno wrote. “Bitcoin demand is 
contracting on monthly terms and slowing down significantly on an annual basis 
(and about to get into negative territory).” Alongside the futures-driven 
explanation for Bitcoin’s stall, the selling pressure from long-term holders 
(LTHs) emerged in recent weeks as the main driver for Bitcoin lagging 
performance against the stock market and gold. As reported yesterday, the 
long-term holder selling appeared to have stopped, according to multiple on- 
chain commentators, with around 10,700 BTC transitioning into long term held 
coins. Related Reading: 2026 Bitcoin Price Predictions: What Banks, 
Institutions And Experts Forecast In his latest post, leading Glassnode 
analyst CryptoVizArt argued the change is more about tempo than direction. 
“LTHs didn’t stop selling,” the analyst wrote, claiming LTHs “are still 
spending ~7.3k BTC/day (7D SMA) and still realizing &lt;$200M/day in profit. What 
changed is the rate, not the behavior. This is a cooldown after months of 
heavy distribution, not a flip to pure accumulation.” Darkfost didn’t dispute 
that LTHs can be persistent sellers, but he emphasized a different lens. “LTHs 
never really stop selling in reality, but when we look at supply change, it 
gives a different picture,” he wrote. “It appears that their distribution has 
come to an end for now, meaning the amount of BTC maturing and transitioning 
into LTH status equals the BTC being sold by LTHs (STH buying).” At press 
time, BTC traded at $87,972. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from 
TradingView.com

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