Bitcoin faces mounting pressure from escalating geopolitical tensions, yet 
Bitwise says extreme risk spikes have historically preceded strong medium-term 
gains, positioning the cryptocurrency for a potential rebound as macro 
liquidity and inflation dynamics evolve. Bitwise Emphasizes Bullish Historical 
Pattern Following Major Geopolitical Risk Events Market volatility is 
intensifying as geopolitical tensions escalate. Bitwise Europe released […]

Bitwise Sees Bullish Setup for Bitcoin Despite Escalating Geopolitical Shockwaves

Elliptic’s initial tracing found many of the funds were sent to foreign crypto 
exchanges, potentially indicating capital flight from Iran amid rising 
uncertainty in the region.

Iranian crypto outflows spike 700% after US-Israeli airstrikes

Bitcoin has remained in a consolidation phase since its early February 
breakdown below the $70,000 threshold, oscillating around the mid-$60K region 
without establishing a clear directional bias. The loss of $70K marked a 
structural shift in short-term momentum, transitioning the market from trend 
continuation to range-bound stabilization. While volatility has moderated, 
underlying stress signals suggest that the correction may not be fully 
resolved. Related Reading: The Distribution Trap: Why Bitcoin’s Reserve Growth 
Proves Sellers Still Hold The Tape According to a recent report by CryptoQuant 
analyst Darkfost, Short-Term Holders (STH) are still carrying substantial 
unrealized losses. With Bitcoin trading near $66,000, this cohort’s average 
unrealized loss stands at approximately 26.3%. Historically, periods in which 
STH losses exceed 25% tend to coincide with advanced phases of bear markets 
rather than early corrective pullbacks. In previous cycles, these losses have 
occasionally expanded toward 40% during capitulation events before a durable 
bottom formed. The current reading, therefore, places the market in a zone of 
elevated psychological pressure. Short-term participants, who are typically 
more reactive to price fluctuations, remain underwater, increasing the 
probability of volatility spikes if key levels fail. Short-Term Holder Losses 
Signal Late-Stage Stress and Strategic Accumulation Zones The current 
configuration of Short-Term Holder positioning reflects a classic late- 
correction dynamic. When STH cohorts begin to carry meaningful unrealized 
losses — particularly above the 25% threshold — market psychology shifts from 
optimism to stress. Historically, these zones have coincided with attractive 
long-term accumulation windows, not because downside risk disappears, but 
because forced selling pressure gradually exhausts itself. Long-term investors 
deploying systematic DCA strategies have often benefited from entering during 
these compressed conditions. The relationship between STH profitability and 
trend development is equally instructive. Sustained bullish expansions 
typically begin once the average unrealized profit of STH reclaims positive 
territory. That shift signals renewed structural demand strong enough to lift 
recent buyers back into profit. However, excessive profitability can also 
destabilize trends. In this cycle, readings near 20% average profit have 
coincided with overheated conditions and subsequent pullbacks, as profit- 
taking accelerates. At present, with STH deeply underwater, the broader 
structure remains bearish from a cyclical standpoint. Momentum has not yet 
transitioned into expansion. Yet paradoxically, these stress phases often 
represent asymmetric positioning opportunities. The key distinction lies in 
timeframe: tactically fragile in the short term, but strategically 
constructive for disciplined capital deployment. Related Reading: Ethereum’s 
Market Order Imbalance Hits Record Negatives: $1,850 Is Now The Line In The 
Sand Bitcoin Compresses Below Moving Averages as $62K–$69K Range Tightens On 
the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin remains locked in a tight consolidation band 
around the $66,000 level after the sharp early-February breakdown. The 
structure is clearly corrective: price is trading below the 50, 100, and 
200-period moving averages, all of which are sloping downward. This alignment 
confirms short-term bearish momentum, even as volatility compresses. Repeated 
attempts to reclaim the 100-period moving average (green) have failed, 
reinforcing it as dynamic resistance near the $68,000–$69,000 zone. Meanwhile, 
the 200-period average (red), positioned higher around the low-$70Ks, marks a 
broader trend ceiling. As long as price remains beneath these levels, upside 
attempts are likely to encounter supply. Related Reading: Engine Stalled: How 
The $8 Billion ‘October Shock’ Left Bitcoin’s Spot Market In A Liquidity Trap 
On the downside, the $62,000–$63,000 region continues to act as horizontal 
support. The sharp wick earlier in February suggests aggressive liquidation- 
driven selling into that area, followed by a reflex bounce. However, 
subsequent rebounds have printed lower highs, indicating that buyers lack 
follow-through. Volume has tapered off compared to the breakdown phase, 
suggesting temporary equilibrium rather than accumulation. The current 
compression reflects indecision, not strength. A decisive 4-hour close above 
$69K would challenge the bearish structure, while a loss of $62K would likely 
trigger renewed downside expansion. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from 
TradingView.com

Bloodbath Or Buy-Zone? Bitcoin’s $66K Stagnation Hits The 25% Loss Threshold Historically Tied To Market Bottoms

U.S. crypto regulation is under active legislative debate as lawmakers push 
the Clarity Act, with Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse and White House crypto czar 
David Sacks actively advocating for the bill’s advancement amid ongoing 
negotiations. White House Adviser Brokers Fragile Truce Between Wall Street 
and Stablecoin Issuers Negotiations over U.S. stablecoin regulation and 
broader crypto […]

Sacks, Garlinghouse Push for Progress in Stablecoin Compromise Under CLARITY Act

Dimon&#8217;s call for equal regulation of stablecoin rewards could reshape 
financial markets, ensuring consumer protection and fair competition.
The post JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon pushes level playing field for stablecoin 
rewards appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

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