Bitcoin has rallied more than 12% since last week’s sharp drop to the $80,000 
low, offering the market a brief moment of relief after an intense period of 
capitulation. Despite this rebound, fear and uncertainty continue to dominate 
sentiment, especially following what analysts describe as the largest short- 
term holder capitulation in Bitcoin’s history. Related Reading: XRP Reserves 
On Binance Collapse To Record Lows: Investors Move Toward Long-Term Holding 
This wave of realized losses—fast, aggressive, and record-breaking—has left 
many investors questioning whether the recent recovery is sustainable or 
simply a temporary bounce in a broader downtrend. According to new data from 
Glassnode, the path ahead remains challenging. Analysts explain that Bitcoin 
must break above the major supply clusters created by top buyers earlier in 
the cycle if it is to regain meaningful upward momentum. These clusters 
represent areas where a large number of investors previously bought at higher 
prices and may now look to exit at breakeven, increasing the likelihood of 
heavy sell-side pressure as BTC climbs. Bitcoin Faces Critical Supply Barriers 
Glassnode reports that Bitcoin is now approaching two major supply clusters 
that will play a decisive role in determining whether the recent rebound can 
evolve into a sustained recovery. The first cluster sits between $93,000 and 
$96,000, while the second—much larger and more structurally important—spans 
$100,000 to $108,000. These zones were formed by heavy buying activity earlier 
in the cycle and represent areas where many investors are currently underwater 
or sitting near breakeven. Because of this, Glassnode notes that these ranges 
typically act as strong resistance, as recent buyers who endured the latest 
drawdown may choose to sell once the price returns to their entry levels. This 
dynamic can create temporary supply walls, slowing down momentum even in 
moments of aggressive recovery. Bitcoin’s ability to break through these 
clusters will determine whether it can re-establish a path toward a new all- 
time high or remain trapped under heavy distribution pressure. The market is 
now entering a critical phase, with traders closely watching how BTC behaves 
as it approaches these levels. A clean breakout would signal renewed 
confidence, while rejection could signal that the broader corrective structure 
is not yet over. Related Reading: Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Still Negative: US 
Institutions Keep Selling Despite Easing Pressure Testing Support After a 
Sharp Multi-Week Selloff Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows a market attempting to 
stabilize after one of the most aggressive drawdowns of the cycle. BTC has 
rebounded to the $91,500 area following a deep wick to the $80K region last 
week, signaling that buyers are finally stepping in at key support. This 
rebound coincides with a strong weekly candle showing a long lower shadow, a 
classic sign of demand absorption during heavy selloffs. However, despite this 
bounce, the broader structure remains fragile. The price is trading below the 
50-week moving average, a level that previously acted as reliable support 
throughout the bull phase. Losing this dynamic support earlier in the month 
was a significant technical break, and BTC is now attempting to reclaim it 
from below—typically a challenging move that often acts as resistance. Related 
Reading: Ethereum ICO Whale Sells 20,000 ETH ($58M), Raising Questions Over 
Market Timing The 100-week moving average around the mid-$80K region has 
proven critical, halting the decline and serving as the primary area where 
buyers defended the trend. As long as BTC holds above this zone, the broader 
market avoids confirming a deeper macro reversal. Volume remains elevated, 
reflecting capitulation-level activity, and the market is now in a decisive 
phase. A sustained close above $92K–$94K would strengthen recovery prospects, 
while rejection would risk another retest of the $80K support. Featured image 
from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin Must Break Key Supply Clusters To Regain ATH Momentum – Watch These Levels

Bitwise crypto researcher André Dragosch said, “We’re staring at a similar 
macro setup” for Bitcoin as during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Bitcoin hasn’t seen this much ‘asymmetric risk-reward’ since COVID: Analyst

A new article by Nic Carter, partner at Castle Island Ventures, raises alarms 
about the vulnerability of bitcoin before the emergence of a cryptographically 
relevant quantum computer (CRQC). Carter believes that such an event will 
happen circa 2035, sooner than expected. Nic Carter Awakens Quantum Concerns: 
Q-Day To Arrive In 2025 The Facts Nic Carter, […]

Nic Carter Raises Concerns on Bitcoin’s Quantum Vulnerability: Q-Day to Arrive by 2035

On-chain data shows New Whales on the Bitcoin network have been realizing 
losses recently, while Old Whales have remained at the sidelines. Bitcoin Has 
Faced Loss Selling From The Newbie Whales In a new post on X, CryptoQuant 
community analyst Maartunn has talked about the latest trend in the 
profit/loss realization behavior of the Bitcoin whales. &#8220;Whales&#8221; broadly refer 
to the BTC investors that hold at least 1,000 tokens in their balance. Related 
Reading: Bitcoin Puell Multiple Plunges, But Not Inside Bottom Zone Yet At the 
current exchange rate, the cutoff for the cohort is equivalent to $91.6 
million, which is quite significant. As such, this group represents the big- 
money hands of the market, who can carry some degree of influence. Whales can 
be divided into two subgroups based on holding time. Investors of this size 
who purchased their coins within the past 155 days are known as the short-term 
holder (STH) or New Whales. Similarly, whales with a longer holding time are 
called the long-term holder (LTH) or Old Whales. Now, here is the chart shared 
by Maartunn that shows the trend in the net amount of profit/loss that these 
Bitcoin whale groups have been realizing through their selling over the last 
few months: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin New Whales have shown 
some loss realization spikes recently. This underwater selling from the cohort 
has come as the cryptocurrency&#8217;s price has gone through a decline. The New 
Whales include the inexperienced hands of the market who tend to easily panic 
in the face of volatility. It would appear that this quality of the group has 
held through the latest crash as well. The Old Whales, on the other hand, are 
considered to represent the resolute side of the network. From the chart, it&#8217;s 
visible that there has been some loss selling from these large dormant 
entities recently, but its scale has been small compared to the New Whale 
capitulation. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Be At Risk Of A Deeper Bear If 
This Ratio Compresses, Says Glassnode The fact that the presence of the Old 
Whales has been relatively muted through the bearish shift, as well as the 
rebound that has followed, could be a signal worth keeping an eye on. Speaking 
of the recovery, the Bitcoin rally has meant that its price has climbed back 
above a major on-chain cost basis level. As analyst Ali Martinez has shared in 
an X post, the Bitcoin UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) suggests a 
strong amount of buying last occurred at $84,500. In on-chain analysis, strong 
demand zones below the spot price are considered points of potential support 
for Bitcoin. Similarly, levels above are assumed to be sources of resistance 
instead. One such major level is present at $112,300. BTC Price Bitcoin&#8217;s 
recovery has furthered during the past day as its price has returned to 
$92,300. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

Newbie Bitcoin Whales Capitulating, But Old Hands Stay Silent

The South African Reserve Bank has postponed CBDC plans, choosing instead to 
prioritize payment system modernization.

Cryptocurrency price in USD