A crypto market analyst has shared a new technical analysis, outlining reasons 
why the Bitcoin price has not yet reached a cycle bottom. Using a charting 
framework called the Bear Bands alongside the Halving Cycles Theory, the 
analyst argues that while a short-term bounce is currently playing out, the 
broader bear market still has significant time and more downsides ahead before 
reaching a final price floor. Why The Bitcoin Price Has Not Hit A Bottom Yet 
According to market expert Crypto Con on X, the recent bounce that saw Bitcoin 
surge above $71,000 after its first major low under $64,000 is a normal 
reaction and does not indicate that the Bitcoin bear market has ended. The 
analyst stated that everything is unfolding exactly as expected, both in 
timing and price, in line with the Halving Cycles Theory. He further noted 
that the price sitting precisely at the first low of the Bear Bands indicator 
actually reinforces his bearish case for Bitcoin. Related Reading: XRP Price 
At $100 Is ‘Inevitable’, Analyst Explains Why This Is Sharing a detailed price 
chart, Crypto Con draws on Bitcoin’s full price history dating back to 2011, 
mapping out recurring bear market sequences that have played out across every 
major cycle. Each of those cycles followed a consistent three-stage structure, 
moving through a first low, a second low, and a final cycle bottom before any 
sustained recovery took hold. Based on this sequence, Crypto Con argues that 
the Bitcoin market has not yet reached a bottom but could be heading towards 
one soon. The Bear Bands framework on the chart places Bitcoin’s first low at 
around $64,000, a level it already achieved this February. The second low for 
the current cycle is projected near $44,500, indicating that the world’s 
largest cryptocurrency still has considerable downside ahead before the next 
major support is even tested. Below this level, Crypto Con has set BTC’s cycle 
bottom around $28,500, marking the final and deepest projected level before a 
genuine reversal could be considered. With current prices currently holding 
above $72,000, a drop to $28,500 would represent a staggering decline of more 
than 60%, reinforcing the analyst’s belief that the bear market is far from 
over. Expected Timeline For A BTC Bear Bottom Beyond bearish price targets, 
the bottom timeline laid out in Crypto Con’s analysis presents a sobering 
outlook for investors and traders hoping for a quick recovery. The analyst has 
projected that the second low around $44,500 is not expected for at least 
another five months from the time of his post. Related Reading: Bitcoin 
Pattern Memory Predicts The Bottom, And It’s Below $40,000 This places 
Bitcoin’s next major price crash roughly in the August to October 2026 window, 
as indicated on the chart. If this timeline plays out, it would push any hope 
of a final bottom well beyond mid-2026. If the projected cycle bottom at 
$28,500 plays out, Crypto Con expects it to arrive no earlier than three 
months after the second low. That points toward a November 2026 to January 
2027 timeframe as the earliest window in which Bitcoin could realistically 
find its true price floor before it begins building toward a recovery. 
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Analyst Says Bitcoin Price Bottom Hasn’t Happened Yet, Gives Timeline To Expect Reversal

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March 4, 2026 — Bitget, the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), has 
unveiled its Crypto Anti-Bias Pledge as part of its International Women’s Day 
initiatives, raising a fundamental question for the blockchain industry: how 
can digital assets reach mass adoption while half of the […]

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The bounty highlights the growing importance of blockchain transparency and 
collaboration in addressing security breaches in digital finance.
The post BC.GAME offers $500,000 bounty to track wallet tied to $4.3 million 
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BC.GAME offers $500,000 bounty to track wallet tied to $4.3 million exploit

Lux Thiagarajah argues that decentralized technology is not displacing banks 
but “re-platforming” them. According to him, regulated entities will remain 
essential because governments will not outsource prudential oversight to 
permissionless systems. From Revolution to Infrastructure For years, the 
promise of blockchain in finance was draped in the language of revolution. The 
world was repeatedly told […]

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Bitcoin&#8217;s price recovered to around $73,000 in early March, after having 
fallen to the mid-$60,000 range from late January due to geopolitical unrest. 
What The Data Says Bitcoin’s price notable instability during the first 
trimester of the year seems to have a direct geopolitical correlation, 
CryptoQuant reports. Bitcoin dropped to around $63,000 on February 29, 
following the U.S.-Israel military strike on Iran on February 28 and the Iran 
heightened tensions in the Middle East. BTC had recovered near $70,000 by 
March 2, and by March 4 and 5 the price pushed to above $73,000 due to strong 
buying pressure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Reclaims $73,000 Amid Iran War 
Volatility, But Analyst Issues Key Warning Geopolitics In The Bitcoin Price 
CryptoQuant highlights a classic short squeeze dynamic on the derivatives 
side. A short squeeze happens when when the price of an asset rises very 
suddenly and to the upside, which forces traders to buy back their shorts as 
price reverses. As the sellers get pushed out, the price rises even further 
due to liquidations. Funding rates turned negative and futures open interest 
climbed during the dump, signaling that many traders were opening or adding 
short positions into the Iran headlines. Bitcoin price on Coinbase Premium 
Index. Source: CryptoQuant As the conflict failed to escalate further and ETF 
demand stayed positive, Bitcoin&#8217;s price pushed higher, triggering liquidations 
of late shorts and driving funding back toward neutral, rebounding toward the 
high‑$60K / $70K area. In CryptoQuant’s words, the episode looks like a 
temporary liquidity and positioning shock layered on top of the existing 
trend, not the start of a new war‑driven regime. Bitcoin: Open Interest &#8211; All 
Exchanges, All Symbol. Source: CryptoQuant The Iran‑related sell‑off was 
primarily a flow‑event rather than a structural shift in holder behavior: it 
was less about investors “fleeing to safety” and more about how positioning 
and liquidity interacted around the shock. Related Reading: Bitcoin Slides 
Again as Iran War Jitters Hit BTC, Risk Assets A Broader Picture This episode 
is not an outlier but part of a pattern in Bitcoin’s price on‑chain behavior 
across major conflicts. From Ukraine and Gaza to the recent crisis in 
Venezuela, they all display the same signature: a sharp, fear‑driven spike in 
coins moving onto exchanges around the event window, followed by a rapid 
normalization back to baseline as price re‑anchors to its prior trajectory. 
That was exactly what emerged during the Venezuela escalation, where military 
headlines amplified intraday volatility but failed to trigger a sustained 
distribution phase or a structural trend change. Wars and geopolitical 
conflicts inject short‑term stress into flows, but once the initial panic 
fades, Bitcoin tends to revert to the macro trend that was already in place. 
BTC&#8217;s price trends to the downside on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on 
Tradingview Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview

Cryptocurrency price in USD