Chainalysis says the on-chain money laundering ecosystem processed $82 billion 
in funds in 2025, with Chinese-language networks now dominating.

Crypto launderers are turning away from centralized exchanges: Chainalysis

Crypto analyst Matt Hughes is arguing the global liquidity cycle is stretching 
well beyond its usual rhythm and that the extension is precisely why staying 
structurally bearish on crypto has been so punishing since 2020. Hughes, who 
posts as “The Great Mattsby,” said Monday that the cycle is “now ~6 years 
strong post-2020 with no clear peak in sight as of early 2026,” framing the 
move as something closer to a super-cycle than a standard 4–6 year expansion. 
What This Means For The Crypto Market Hughes’ core claim is that the 
traditional mechanism that ends liquidity cycles, central banks tightening 
into contraction, is being blunted by a mix of debt math, fragmented global 
money creation, and a capital-intensive investment boom that keeps pulling 
liquidity back into risk assets rather than allowing it to drain out. “The 
current global liquidity cycle is on track to become the longest ever, 
smashing past the typical 4–6 year patterns we&#8217;ve seen historically. Here&#8217;s 
why it&#8217;s stretching into a true super-cycle (now ~6 years strong post-2020 
with no clear peak in sight as of early 2026):” Hughes wrote, before laying 
out the macro pillars of the thesis. First, Hughes points to the scale of 
leverage in the system as a constraint on normalization. “Global debt/GDP 
&gt;350% creates a refinancing nightmare,” he wrote, arguing that each policy 
response has to be larger to prevent defaults and that aggressive tightening 
risks cascading sovereign and emerging-market stress. In that framework, 
policy makers are boxed into “perpetual support mode,” which delays the kind 
of contraction that would normally mark the end of a liquidity upswing. 
Related Reading: US Government Bitcoin, Crypto Theft Allegation Emerges 
Involving CEO’s Son Second, Hughes argues the cycle can run longer because 
global liquidity is no longer dominated by a single central bank. “The old 
dollar-only world is fragmenting,” he wrote, describing a “bifurcation of the 
global monetary system” in which liquidity creation outside the US can offset 
periods when the Federal Reserve is tighter. In his telling, a multipolar 
setup — spanning “BRICS nations,” China as a major credit creator, and 
alternative stores of value including “yuan, gold, crypto” — makes the overall 
system more resilient than past cycles that were more synchronized. Third, 
Hughes links the endurance of the cycle to an unusually large wave of capital 
demand. He calls AI, renewables, data centers, chip fabs, and blockchain 
“capital hogs,” arguing that the scale of funding required “demand &amp; absorb 
endless liquidity.” He also ties that directly to market behavior, writing 
that risk assets like “IWM small-caps, ARKK innovation, BTC” pushing toward or 
near all-time highs is consistent with a cycle that is “closer to start than 
end.” Related Reading: Bitwise Says Crypto Has Likely Bottomed, Echoing Q1 
2023 Setup Finally, Hughes emphasizes a policy bias toward preventing 
downturns. He described central banks as “hyper-proactive,” citing tools like 
forward guidance and yield curve control alongside tighter fiscal-monetary 
coordination. He also argued geopolitical priorities: reshoring, 
infrastructure, and the energy transition reinforce a stimulus-leaning 
posture, while traditional recession signals have been less reliable, pointing 
to a record-long 10y/3m inversion “without collapse.” Not everyone in the 
thread accepted the implication that the liquidity impulse remains cleanly 
supportive. A user posting as zam flagged a near-term risk: “My concern here 
is that Michael Howell says that liquidity momentum is slowing down 
considerably and that the liquidity is peaking very soon for this cycle. Any 
thoughts on that?” Hughes’ reply was succinct: “It can rotate into other 
assets as long as the economy is strong.” For crypto markets, the exchange 
captures the key tension: whether the cycle’s length is the dominant story, or 
whether a decelerating liquidity impulse changes the playbook via rotation 
rather than outright collapse. Hughes’ framing leaves the timing open-ended, 
asking followers whether the crypto peak arrives “at the end of 2026 or even 
longer,” while implicitly suggesting bears may need a clearer, system-wide 
rollover in liquidity, not just slower momentum, before the macro backdrop 
decisively turns. At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $2.95 
trillion. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Crypto Bears Beware: Global Liquidity Cycle May Be The Longest On Record

BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes says the yen is weakening while Japanese 
government bond yields are rising, which could lead to Japanese investors 
selling US Treasuries.

A Fed move to backstop Japan bonds could boost Bitcoin: Arthur Hayes

Coinbase’s musical ad depicting a run-down UK, which was already blacklisted 
from TV, has reportedly seen a wider ban by the country’s ad watchdog for 
being “irresponsible.”

UK bans Coinbase ads that ‘trivialized’ crypto risks: Report

A new ethereum staking report shows 2025 delivered major technical upgrades 
and surging institutional adoption, even as ETH prices lagged, setting the 
stage for structural changes to staking and market dynamics in 2026. Paradox 
for Ethereum in 2025: Network Growth vs Flat ETH Prices Ethereum’s 2025 was 
defined by sharp contrasts. According to the Ethereum […]

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