Bitcoin is entering a critical phase after losing the crucial $115,000 support 
level, with selling pressure mounting across key timeframes. The bullish 
momentum that previously fueled upside moves has faded, and price action now 
signals growing market weakness. As investor sentiment shifts from cautious 
optimism to concern, fears of a deeper correction below $110,000 are gaining 
traction among analysts. Related Reading: Ethereum Bears Dominate Market 
Orders: -$418.8M Daily Net Taker Volume Signals Trouble According to 
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin has established a short-term 
resistance level at $112,000—a constructive sign that the market is attempting 
to stabilize. However, Adler warns that the $112K–$105K zone remains 
structurally fragile, acting as a buffer that separates current price levels 
from more aggressive downside risk. If sellers push BTC below $105K, it could 
trigger a cascade of long liquidations and shake out short-term holders. With 
macroeconomic uncertainty and declining ETF flows weighing on sentiment, 
Bitcoin’s path forward depends on how it reacts within this range. A recovery 
above $112K would signal resilience, while a breakdown could open the door to 
a broader market correction. Short-Term Holder Risk Grows As Bitcoin Fails To 
Reclaim Momentum According to Adler, the current structure of the Bitcoin 
market shows growing vulnerability, particularly among short-term holders 
(STHs). Adler points out that the 1-week to 1-month STH Realized Price sits at 
$117,000, meaning this entire cohort is now underwater. These investors, who 
tend to react emotionally to short-term volatility, may be the first to panic- 
sell if any negative catalysts emerge—potentially triggering a cascade of 
sell-offs across the broader market. Adler further highlights the $105,000 
level as a critical support zone, based on the aggregated STH Realized Price. 
If Bitcoin drops into this range, the pressure to hold will intensify, but it 
may also act as a strong technical and psychological level that could slow or 
even reverse the downtrend. “The market remains weak,” Adler reaffirmed, 
maintaining his bearish stance from the day prior. He emphasized that retail 
investors are failing to push the price higher, and the lack of sustained 
demand adds to the growing structural weakness in the market. Compounding the 
stress is recent weak US jobs data, which has sparked fresh speculation about 
potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. While this could be 
bullish for risk assets in the long run, the current uncertainty is adding 
pressure to already fragile market sentiment. Related Reading: Bitcoin Net 
Taker Volume Stays Bearish – Fragile Market Structure Risks Liquidation 
Cascade Bitcoin Attempts Recovery Amid Resistance Cluster The 4-hour chart for 
Bitcoin (BTC) reveals a key battle playing out below the $116K resistance 
zone. After briefly dipping below $113K earlier this week, BTC has rebounded 
and is now trading around $115,478, approaching the 100 and 200 moving 
averages—currently acting as overhead resistance at $116,596 and $115,799, 
respectively. The price is also attempting to break back above the horizontal 
support-turned-resistance at $115,724, a level that held during July’s 
consolidation range. This cluster of resistance—formed by the SMAs and 
horizontal level—poses a significant short-term hurdle. A clean breakout above 
this zone with strong volume could signal renewed bullish momentum and open 
the path toward retesting the $122K range high. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin 
Overheated? Key Signal Flashes Warning Similar To 2021 And 2024 Market Tops 
However, volume remains relatively low compared to the July breakout, and the 
failed attempts to reclaim higher levels suggest buyers are cautious. Unless 
BTC can reclaim and consolidate above $116K, the rejection risk remains high, 
potentially pushing the price back into the lower $112K–$113K support band. 
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin STH Realized Price Signals Fragile Support: Correction Risk Intensifies

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