Bitcoin’s early-2026 bounce has pushed back into a familiar problem area: a 
dense pocket of overhead supply that Glassnode says has repeatedly capped 
rallies since November. In its latest Week On-chain report, the analytics firm 
frames the move above $96,000 as constructive on the surface, but still 
largely dependent on derivatives positioning and liquidity conditions rather 
than persistent spot accumulation. Glassnode’s central argument is that 
Bitcoin has rallied straight into a historically significant band of long-term 
holder (LTH) cost basis, built during April to July 2025 and associated with 
sustained distribution near cycle highs. The report describes a “dense 
cluster” spanning roughly $93K to $110K, with rebounds since November 
repeatedly stalling near the lower boundary. “This region has consistently 
acted as a transition barrier, separating corrective phases from durable bull 
regimes,” Glassnode wrote. “With price once again pressing into this overhead 
supply, the market now faces a familiar test of resilience, where absorbing 
long-term holder distribution remains a prerequisite for any broader trend 
reversal.” The firm’s framing is blunt: the market is back at the same sell 
ceiling, and clearing it requires real absorption, not just price probing. The 
next level the report highlights is the short-term holder (STH) cost basis at 
$98.3K, which it treats as a confidence gauge for newer buyers. Sustained 
trading above it would indicate that recent demand is strong enough to keep 
late entrants in profit while soaking up overhead supply. On-chain, Glassnode 
notes long-term holders remain net sellers, with total LTH supply still 
trending lower. The key change is speed. The report says the rate of decline 
has “slowed materially” versus the aggressive distribution seen in Q3 and Q4 
2025, suggesting profit-taking is continuing but with less intensity. Related 
Reading: Bitcoin Fear &amp; Greed Index Turns ‘Neutral’ For First Time Since 
October “What follows will depend primarily on the demand side’s ability to 
absorb this supply, particularly from investors accumulated over Q2 2025,” the 
report said. “Failure to hold above the True Market Mean at ~$81k, in the long 
term, would significantly increase the risk of a deeper capitulation phase, 
reminiscent of the April 2022 to April 2023 period.” It is one of the clearest 
downside conditionals in the note: if the market loses the long-run mean, the 
probability distribution shifts toward a more severe unwind. A related signal 
is the Net Realized Profit and Loss of Long-Term Holders, which Glassnode says 
reflects a “markedly cooler distribution regime.” Long-term holders are 
realizing roughly 12.8K BTC per week in net profit, a sharp slowdown from 
cycle peaks above 100K BTC per week. That moderation does not imply 
capitulation risk is gone, but it does suggest the heaviest phase of profit- 
taking has eased. Bitcoin Demand Remains Uneven Off-chain indicators lean more 
constructive. Glassnode argues institutional balance-sheet flows have “gone 
through a full reset” after months of heavy outflows across spot ETFs, 
corporates, and sovereign entities, with net flows stabilizing as sell-side 
pressure appears exhausted. Spot ETFs are described as the first cohort to 
turn positive again, re-establishing themselves as the primary marginal buyer. 
Corporate and sovereign treasury flows, by contrast, are portrayed as sporadic 
and event-driven rather than consistent. The upshot is a market where balance- 
sheet demand can help stabilize price, but may not yet function as a sustained 
growth engine, leaving short-term direction more sensitive to derivatives 
positioning and liquidity conditions. At the venue level, Glassnode points to 
improving spot behavior. Binance and aggregate exchange flow measures have 
shifted back into buy-dominant regimes, and Coinbase, described as a 
consistent source of sell-side aggression during the consolidation, has 
“meaningfully slowed its selling activity.” The report calls this a 
constructive structural shift, while stressing it still falls short of the 
persistent, aggressive accumulation typically associated with full trend 
expansions. Related Reading: Bitcoin Futures Flush 31% Of Open Interest As 
Bottom Thesis Takes Shape The most pointed caution in the report is that the 
move into the $96K region was “mechanically reinforced” by short liquidations 
in a relatively thin liquidity environment. Futures turnover remains well 
below the elevated activity seen across most of 2025, implying it took 
comparatively little capital to force shorts out and push price through 
resistance. “This indicates that the breakout occurred in a comparatively 
light liquidity environment, where modest positioning shifts were able to 
drive disproportionately large price responses,” Glassnode said. “In practical 
terms, it did not take significant new capital to force shorts out of the 
market and lift price through resistance.” The implication is that 
continuation now depends on whether spot demand and sustained volume can 
replace forced covering once the squeeze impulse fades. Options markets add a 
second layer of tension. Glassnode describes implied volatility as low but 
“deferred,” while skew continues to price downside asymmetry, with 25-delta 
skew biased toward puts in mid and longer maturities. In short: participants 
appear comfortable holding exposure, but remain unwilling to do so without 
insurance. Positioning also matters at the microstructure level. The report 
flags dealers as short gamma around spot, with a zone roughly from $94K to 
$104K. In that setup, hedging flows can amplify moves rather than dampen them, 
buying into rallies and selling into dips, raising the odds of faster travel 
toward high-interest strikes such as $100K if momentum takes hold. At press 
time, BTC traded at $96,334. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from 
TradingView.com

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