As Bitcoin (BTC) trades roughly 50% below its all‑time high, investors are 
once again asking the familiar question: how long does recovery usually take? 
Market analyst Sam Daodu believes history offers valuable clues. No Systemic 
Bitcoin Collapse This Time? Daodu notes that steep corrections are not unusual 
for Bitcoin. Since 2011, the cryptocurrency has endured more than 20 pullbacks 
exceeding 40%. Mid‑cycle declines in the 35% to 50% range have often cooled 
overheated rallies without permanently derailing long‑term uptrends. In 
situations where there was no systemic breakdown in the broader market, 
Bitcoin has typically reclaimed prior highs in about 14 months. He contrasts 
the current environment with 2022, when multiple structural failures shook the 
crypto industry. Related Reading: Trump Media Files For Cronos, Bitcoin‑Ether 
ETFs With Staking Focus At present, there is no comparable collapse rippling 
through the system. The analyst highlighted that BTC’s realized 
price—currently near $55,000—may provide a psychological and technical floor, 
as long‑term holders have historically accumulated coins around that level. 
Whether the present downturn evolves into a drawn‑out slump or a shorter 
reset, Daodu suggests, will largely hinge on global liquidity conditions and 
investor sentiment. A Look Back At Historic Selloffs During the 2021–2022 
cycle, Bitcoin peaked at $69,000 in November 2021 before tumbling to $15,500 
one year later, a 77% drop. The downturn coincided with monetary tightening by 
the US Federal Reserve, alongside the collapse of the Terra (Luna) ecosystem 
and FTX’s bankruptcy. It ultimately took 28 months for Bitcoin to surpass its 
previous high, which it did in March 2024. At the market bottom, long‑term 
holders controlled roughly 60% of circulating supply, absorbing coins from 
forced sellers. The 2020 COVID‑19 crash unfolded very differently. In March of 
that year, Bitcoin plunged about 58%, sliding from approximately $9,100 to 
$3,800 as global lockdowns triggered a liquidity shock. Bitcoin rebounded 
quickly. It reclaimed the $10,000 level within six weeks and retook its 2017 
high of $20,000 by December 2020, about nine months after the bottom. The 
eventual surge to $69,000 in November 2021 came roughly 21 months after the 
crash. The 2018 bear market presents yet another contrast. After reaching 
$20,000 in December 2017, Bitcoin collapsed 84% to $3,200 by December 2018. 
The implosion of the initial coin offering (ICO) boom, combined with 
regulatory crackdowns and limited institutional participation, drained 
speculative energy from the market. Active addresses declined by 70%, and 
miners were forced to capitulate as revenues shrank. Without significant new 
capital or a compelling growth narrative, Bitcoin required nearly three years 
to revisit its previous peak. Not Capitulation Yet The depth of the drawdown 
itself plays a critical role. Historically, corrections in the 40% to 50% 
range have taken roughly nine to 14 months to reverse, while collapses 
exceeding 80% have required three years or longer. Related Reading: Standard 
Chartered Lowers Bitcoin Forecast: Predicts Price Dive To $50,000 Before 
Rebound With Bitcoin now down about 50% from its peak, the decline falls into 
what Daodu describes as a moderate‑to‑severe category—substantial, but not 
indicative of full capitulation. Based on prior episodes of similar magnitude, 
he estimates that a return to previous highs could take 12 months or more, 
with macroeconomic conditions ultimately determining the speed of that 
rebound. As of writing, BTC was trading at $68,960, having recovered slightly 
on Friday with a 5% increase in an attempt to surpass its short-term 
resistance wall at $70,000. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from 
TradingView.com

When Will Bitcoin Bounce Back? Top Analyst Breaks Down Prior Major Corrections

Bitcoin will become “more valuable than ever” after deflation stops covering 
“up the impact&#8221; on the US dollar, according to Bitcoin entrepreneur Anthony 
Pompliano.

Bitcoin holders are being tested as inflation fades: Pompliano

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has plunged 
recently. Here&#8217;s what this could mean for the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin NUPL Has 
Dropped To The 0.18 Level In a new post on X, o-chain analytics firm Glassnode 
has talked about the latest trend in the Bitcoin NUPL, which is an indicator 
that compares the amount of unrealized profit and loss held by investors on 
the BTC blockchain. The metric works by going through the transaction history 
of each token on the network to find the price at which they were last 
involved in a transfer. If this previous selling price is greater than the 
current spot price for any coin, then that particular token is assumed to be 
carrying some net unrealized profit. Similarly, the cost basis being lower 
implies the token is underwater. Related Reading: Bitcoin On-Chain Heatmap 
Shows All Major Metrics In The Red The exact amount of profit/loss held by a 
coin is equal to the difference between the two prices. The NUPL sums up this 
value for each category and then subtracts it to determine the net situation 
for the network. Additionally, it also divides the result by the market cap to 
showcase how the net profit/loss among investors looks relative to the asset&#8217;s 
total valuation. Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the 
trend in the Bitcoin NUPL over the last few years: As displayed in the above 
graph, the Bitcoin NUPL shot up above the 0.5 level during the rallies in 2024 
and 2025. This suggests that investors were carrying net profits more than 
half as much as the cryptocurrency&#8217;s market cap. These phases of euphoria were 
followed by price declines that took the metric into the zone between 0.25 and 
0.5. BTC managed to recover from the first two of these drops, but the latest 
one has been followed by an extended phase of downtrend. From the chart, it&#8217;s 
visible that this bearish action has taken the cryptocurrency to a value of 
0.18. This level indicates that profits are still dominant on the network, but 
they are much thinner than before. The level lies inside a region that the 
analytics firm defines as pertaining to &#8220;hope/fear&#8221; among the investors. &#8220;This 
regime tends to be reactive: rallies meet sell pressure, and downside can 
extend as conviction fades,&#8221; explained the analytics firm. The last time that 
the Bitcoin NUPL saw a substantial drawdown into the region was during the 
2022 bear market. Back then, the cryptocurrency ended up traveling right 
through the zone and into the extreme fear area below the zero level, 
corresponding to net losses being held by the majority of investors. Related 
Reading: Shiba Inu At Risk of 70% Decline? Price Breaks Below Parallel Channel 
It now remains to be seen how long the cryptocurrency will stay in the region 
for this time around and which one will follow next. BTC Price Bitcoin dropped 
toward $65,000 on Thursday, but the asset has kicked back up to $69,000 on 
Friday. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin NUPL Back In Hope/Fear Region: What Happens Next?

Ripple pushes the Federal Reserve to modernize payment account rules to 
support stablecoin issuers, arguing targeted reforms could strengthen dollar 
dominance, reduce systemic risk and accelerate compliant digital asset 
integration into U.S. financial infrastructure. Ripple Urges Fed to Modify 
Payment Account Framework for Stablecoin Issuers Regulatory engagement around 
digital assets continues to expand as companies […]

Ripple Seeks Fed Payment Account Changes, Citing Implications for RLUSD and XRP Infrastructure

A US Army veteran and XRP community influencer has drawn attention with a bold 
prediction: he believes XRP could overtake Bitcoin as the top cryptocurrency 
within six years. Related Reading: Calm Down: Ethereum Has Survived 8 Major 
50% Falls, Lee Reminds Investors His comments come amid a period of market 
turbulence that has seen Bitcoin’s value slide and XRP’s price fluctuate. 
Analysts warn the scenario is highly speculative, but it has sparked debate 
among traders and enthusiasts alike. Market Size Versus Market Story Reports 
note that Bitcoin still dominates. With a market cap near $1.37 trillion, it 
dwarfs XRP’s $86 billion. At current prices, XRP would need to climb to 
roughly $22.5 per token just to match Bitcoin’s market value. That represents 
a nearly 1,500% increase from today’s trading levels. The scale of the gap 
makes Patrick Riley’s forecast ambitious, especially considering Bitcoin’s 
long-standing role as the leading crypto asset. If Bitcoin doesn&#8217;t break 
$150,000 this year and reclaim it&#8217;s twelve year trend line, it&#8217;s going to re- 
test $1,000. Either way it goes, $XRP will take the #1 spot within the next 6 
years after which Bitcoin will be relegated to a nostalgia collectible for 
those with an interest in… pic.twitter.com/TxOnCdCqHB — Patrick L Riley 
(@Acquired_Savant) February 10, 2026 Riley bases part of his prediction on 
long-term trendlines. According to him, Bitcoin’s price has slipped below 
significant trendlines drawn over the past decade. Whether Bitcoin recovers 
above these levels or continues its decline, Riley believes XRP could rise to 
take the top spot. He sets a timeline of six years for this shift, putting the 
potential event around 2032. Technical Lines And Tale-Telling Reports have 
disclosed that trendlines can influence trader behavior but do not guarantee 
outcomes. A chart stretching back over a decade may appear decisive, yet 
actual price movements are shaped by many factors: market confidence, 
institutional activity, regulation, and capital flows. Riley has previously 
made headlines for suggesting high-profile figures are tied to Bitcoin’s 
creation and framing market swings as deliberate attempts to suppress XRP. 
Such claims energize communities but are not proof of likely outcomes. 
Currently, Bitcoin trades roughly 16 times larger than XRP by market 
capitalization. Even after recent market drops, it maintains deep liquidity 
and a strong network effect. XRP would need a combination of wider adoption, 
investor confidence, and market momentum to close that gap. According to 
reports, this would require events that fundamentally shift how capital is 
allocated in the crypto space. Related Reading: Is XRP About To Surprise The 
Market? Finance Expert Weighs In What Would Have To Happen Reports say XRP 
overtaking Bitcoin remains a speculative scenario. Bitcoin would need to 
experience a sharp decline, or XRP would need extraordinary growth — possibly 
both — for the top spot to change hands. Market watchers suggest keeping an 
eye on adoption trends, partnerships, and price action over the coming years. 
For now, Bitcoin’s position remains secure, while XRP’s potential rally 
continues to excite its community. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from 
TradingView

Cryptocurrency price in USD