Crypto prices came under pressure again on Friday as Treasury yields, not crude, became the macro variable traders could not ignore. Bitcoin slipped back below $69,000 after a short-lived relief rally earlier this week, while ether also traded lower, as hopes for a near-term easing in the Iran conflict faded and the US 10-year yield stayed near 4.42%. That is the core argument The Kobeissi Letter pushed in a widely shared thread via X: the market’s center of gravity has shifted from the oil spike itself to the rates shock that follows it. “The bond market is, by far, the biggest problem for the US right now, much bigger than the energy price situation,” Adam Kobeissi wrote. In the longer note, the firm sharpened the point further: “For weeks, markets have been fixated on oil, war headlines, and geopolitical escalation. But beneath the surface, a much larger force has been building, and it’s now beginning to take control. The bond market is now dictating the path of equities, commodities, and ultimately, policy itself.” Related Reading: Fidelity Sees Key Crypto Catalysts Emerging For Q2 2026 The market action this week fits that thesis. On Thursday, President Donald Trump said he would pause attacks on Iran’s energy plants for 10 days, until April 6, saying talks were “going very well.” Yields initially eased on the headline, but the move did not hold. By the end of the session, the 10-year Treasury yield had climbed to 4.415%, the highest since July, while mortgage rates had already risen to their highest since October and Fed Governor Lisa Cook said the war had shifted the balance of risks toward inflation. Futures markets had moved to price virtually no chance of a Fed cut in 2026. And the data shows the stress. The MOVE Index, a gauge of Treasury volatility, is at 115.02, up 17.86% on the day. Kobeissi also showed a FedWatch distribution that, in Kobeissi’s reading, now points to a base case of rates staying broadly unchanged through September 2027, a dramatic reversal from late 2025, when markets were still debating how many cuts the Fed would deliver in 2026. This is truly historic: In just 27 days of the Iran War, the discussion has now become about Fed rate HIKES. Just weeks ago, investors were debating how many rate cuts the Fed would implement in 2026. Now? There&#8217;s a 48% chance of an interest rate HIKE by January 2027. And,… https://t.co/ccQ91LLH3g pic.twitter.com/ve2drzl4Rb — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 26, 2026 The firm tied that repricing to a labor market it says has deteriorated even before the latest inflation shock, citing deep downward revisions to payroll data over the last three years and a February unemployment duration of 25.7 weeks. For crypto, the message is straightforward: this is still trading as a liquidity-sensitive macro asset class. When Trump first said on March 23 that the US would postpone strikes and pursue talks, bitcoin rallied more than 5% to as high as $71,794 in New York, with altcoins also moving higher. That relief move has since unwound. By Friday, bitcoin was trading at $68,639 and ether at $2,061.81, both down on the day as the market rotated back to yields, policy risk and tighter financial conditions. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes framed the crypto angle more directly in his usual shorthand. “Almost there … If Trump invades Iran what is Buffalo Bill Bessent going to do to calm the UST market?” he wrote, referring to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Almost there … If Trump invades Iran what is Buffalo Bill Bessent going to do to calm the UST market? pic.twitter.com/7H2qakadgT — Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) March 26, 2026 The point is not simply that war could rattle markets, but that a deeper selloff in Treasuries could force some form of response from Washington. In Hayes’ macro framework, crypto does not meaningfully recover just because geopolitical tensions ease; it recovers when bond-market stress becomes severe enough to bring liquidity back into the system, whether through Bessent, the Fed, or both. Related Reading: Crypto Analysts Warn: Traders Misreading The Clarity Act Could Miss The Real Opportunity Kobeissi’s framework is similar. The firm argues that as yields move toward the 4.50% to 4.70% range on the 10-year, the odds of some form of policy response rise sharply because the White House has already shown it is sensitive to bond-market stress. That leaves crypto watching the same dashboard as every macro desk: Treasury yields, rate expectations and the credibility of any de-escalation headline. If bond volatility cools, crypto assets could respond the way they did earlier this week, snapping higher on even a modest improvement in war headlines. But if yields continue grinding upward, the market may keep treating bitcoin and the rest of crypto less as geopolitical hedges than as another expression of the global rates trade. At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $ Total crypto market cap chart, 1-week chart | Source: TOTAL on TradingView.com ds Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Crypto Prices Under Pressure As Bond Market Stress Overtakes Oil Shock

The executive order is the latest in a wave of legal actions in the US seeking 
to curb government insider trading on prediction markets.

California governor signs order banning prediction market insider trading

a16z crypto partner Guy Wuollet says crypto is entering its “collared shirt” 
era, as the firm doubles down on a 10‑year infrastructure bet even while 
high‑profile partners exit amid a new $2b fundraise. Guy Wuollet, a16z crypto 
partner has published…

a16z’s Guy Wuollet says crypto is leaving hoodie phase for ‘collared shirt’ decade

US lawmakers on Friday unveiled the Digital Asset PARITY Act — a wide‑ranging 
draft bill that would reshape tax and regulatory treatment for digital assets 
while drawing immediate criticism for excluding Bitcoin (BTC). Introduced by 
Representatives Max Miller and Steven Horsford, the measure would, among other 
changes, create a narrow tax exemption for small stablecoin transactions and 
alter how staking income is treated. Key PARITY Act Provisions Under the 
PARITY proposal, regulated payment stablecoins used in transactions worth less 
than $200 would be exempt from recognizing gains or losses, provided the 
stablecoin’s price remains within 1% of its dollar peg at the time of payment. 
Related Reading: NVIDIA Faces Class Action After Court OKs $1 Billion Crypto- 
Mining Revenue Claims – Stock Dips 7% The bill also contains several other 
notable provisions, on staking for example, as it seeks to change the tax 
timing for income earned by passive participants in proof‑of‑stake (PoS) 
networks, permitting those “passive stakers” to defer the immediate tax 
consequences of staking rewards. Yet the bill’s approach to staking and mining 
has become a focal point for criticism. The Bitcoin Policy Institute (BPI) has 
been one of the most vocal opponents, arguing that PARITY’s staking deferral 
provisions create an uneven, technology‑biased tax regime that disadvantages 
proof‑of‑work (PoW) networks such as Bitcoin. BPI Objection Over Bitcoin 
Exclusion The Bitcoin Policy Institute contends the draft perpetuates the 
“phantom income” problem that both miners and stakers previously acknowledged 
needed legislative relief, but solves it only for stakers. The organization 
warned that by offering deferral to staking participants while leaving miners 
outside the relief, the bill effectively penalizes mining and undermines 
technological neutrality. Related Reading: MARA Holdings’ Bitcoin Sell-Off: 
15,000 BTC Liquidated As Prices Crash Below $69,000 BPI called the imbalance 
“a two‑tier tax regime,” and urged lawmakers to remedy it by restoring a 
broader de minimis exemption that is not limited to stablecoins and by 
extending the deferral election to all block‑reward recipients — miners as 
well as stakers — or otherwise explicitly including mining in the relief. The 
Bitcoin Policy Institute argued these fixes are minimal but necessary steps if 
Congress truly intends to maintain US leadership in Bitcoin and digital asset 
innovation. Left unchanged, the group warned, the draft could disadvantage 
proof‑of‑work systems and shift innovation offshore. At the time of writing, 
Bitcoin was trading at roughly $66,000, representing a 4% and almost 6% loss 
in the 24-hour and seven-day time frames, respectively, as the broader crypto 
market wraps up the week to the downside. Featured image from OpenArt, chart 
from TradingView.com

Bitcoin Omitted From PARITY Act’s Tax Relief, BPI Urges Inclusion Of Miners

XRP is under selling pressure. Weeks of consolidation below $1.50 have given 
way to a test of critical support. And quietly, an indicator that most traders 
are not watching has just flipped in a direction they should care about. 
Related Reading: Unknown Wallet Buys $107 Million In Ethereum – Purchase 
Pattern Points To Bitmine An Arab Chain report tracking risk-adjusted 
performance data on Binance has identified a shift that the price chart is not 
yet reflecting: XRP&#8217;s Sharpe Ratio has moved into positive territory at 
0.0267, while the 30-day average return has climbed to 0.00063 — a modest but 
meaningful reading that marks the first sustained improvement in risk-adjusted 
returns following months of negative and near-zero readings. These are not 
large numbers. That is precisely the point. The Sharpe Ratio does not need to 
be high to be significant — it needs to be moving in the right direction after 
an extended period of moving in the wrong direction. For XRP, that directional 
shift is new, it is recent, and it is happening while the price is still under 
pressure. That divergence — between what the risk-adjusted data is signaling 
and what the spot market is doing — is where the most important market 
information tends to live. The price reflects the present. The indicator is 
measuring something further out. The Indicator Spent Four Months in the Red. 
March Changed That Arab Chain&#8217;s historical read of the data places the current 
positive reading in its proper context. From October through late December, 
the Sharpe Ratio remained in negative or near-zero territory — a sustained 
period in which XRP holders were bearing risk that their returns were not 
compensating them for. That is not a temporary fluctuation. That is a regime, 
and it lasted the better part of a quarter. The February capitulation marked 
the low point of that regime. When XRP&#8217;s price collapsed sharply in early 
February, the indicator registered its most negative reading of the entire 
period — the moment when risk was highest, and returns were most punishing 
simultaneously. What followed was not an immediate recovery but a gradual one: 
the Sharpe Ratio began climbing as price stabilized, and March delivered the 
decisive shift, with the 30-day average return rising enough to push the 
indicator into positive territory for the first time since the cycle began 
deteriorating. Arab Chain frames the forward scenario with appropriate 
precision. If the Sharpe Ratio continues climbing — if returns improve while 
volatility stays contained — the data supports a progressively more stable 
bullish setup. If it reverses into negative territory, the stress regime 
returns. The indicator has crossed. The price has not followed yet. One of 
them will move toward the other. Related Reading: $2.3 Billion Ethereum Has 
Left OKX And Binance This Quarter: The Sell-Side Supply Is Thinning The XRP 
Support That Was Holding Is Now Being Tested XRP is trading at $1.3365, down 
1.79% on the day. The session opened at $1.3608, reached $1.3726, and has sold 
off to a session low of $1.3340 — a candle that opened, rejected immediately, 
and has spent the remainder of the day pressing toward levels not seen since 
the February capitulation floor. Today&#8217;s price action is not ambiguous. It is 
a breakdown attempt. The daily chart context makes today&#8217;s move consequential 
rather than routine. XRP has been in a confirmed downtrend since November 
2025, producing a sequence of lower highs without exception — the January 
rally to $2.40, the post-capitulation bounce to $1.65, the March recovery 
attempt to $1.55, each one sold into at a lower level than the one before. The 
structure has not produced a single higher high in five months. Related 
Reading: Ethereum Staking Ratio Hits Record 31.4% As Exchange Supply Crashes 
To 2016 Lows All three moving averages are declining in sequence, and the 
price trades beneath all of them. The 50-day MA has crossed below the 100-day 
MA, confirming the death cross on the intermediate timeframe. The 200-day MA 
descends from approximately $2.20, so far above the current price that it 
offers no near-term reference point. The February capitulation wick to $1.15 
is the last meaningful support on this chart. Today&#8217;s close at $1.3365 is 
pressing toward the lower boundary of the post-capitulation range. A daily 
close below $1.33 puts $1.15 back in play — not as a prediction, but as the 
next structural level the chart exposes if the current floor gives way. 
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Cryptocurrency price in USD