After a year in which many prominent 2025 Bitcoin calls proved wide of the 
mark, the 2026 forecast slate is being framed less as “targets” and more as 
scenario ranges: mostly bullish, but with a long bearish tail that stretches 
as far as $10,000. A Wu Blockchain roundup published Dec. 29 argued that the 
market’s tolerance for target-price narratives has eroded after last year’s 
“collective miss,” yet major banks, asset managers, and industry executives 
are still putting numbers and models on what could drive Bitcoin through 2026. 
The center of gravity sits in a familiar band: roughly $150,000 to $250,000 by 
end-2026, built on institutional allocation and spot ETF channels. The bears, 
by contrast, are leaning on macro tightening, slowing demand, or broken 
technical structure, with downside scenarios clustered at $70,000, $56,000, 
$25,000, and an outlier $10,000. The Bullish Bitcoin Price Predictions For 
2026 Fundstrat’s Tom Lee has repeatedly pointed to $200,000–$250,000 by the 
end of 2026, arguing that expanding institutional allocation and the plumbing 
that makes it easier to express, particularly ETFs can reshape cycle dynamics. 
That framing sits alongside a more tactical note from within the same shop: 
Sean Farrell, Fundstrat’s head of digital asset strategy, flagged the risk of 
a deeper early-2026 pullback with BTC at $60,000–$65,000 in the first half of 
the year, plus ETH at $1,800–$2,000 and SOL at $50–$75. Crypto industry 
leaders also landed on six-figure outcomes. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said 
he expects BTC to reach $180,000 by end-2026 during a Binance Blockchain Week 
panel alongside Solana Foundation President Lily Liu and Binance CEO Richard 
Teng. Related Reading: US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Key Catalyst For 
Potential Surge Toward $150,000 Next Year On the bank side, JPMorgan’s 
Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou team pegged a “theoretical price / implied fair value” 
near $170,000 using a volatility-adjusted BTC-to-gold relative valuation 
framework, positioning it more as a model-implied upper reference over the 
next 6–12 months than a hard year-end target. Standard Chartered, once among 
the more aggressive bulls, revised down sharply: it now expects roughly 
$100,000 by end-2025 and $150,000 in 2026, citing market weakness and fading 
drivers, including reduced DAT buying and slowing ETF inflows. That $150,000 
neighborhood is crowded. Bernstein reiterated a 2026 target of about $150,000, 
arguing the latest drawdown does not end the bull market and that the cycle is 
increasingly extended by institutional capital rather than constrained by the 
four-year halving cadence. Katherine Dowling, president of Bitcoin reserve 
company BSTR, also pointed to $150,000 by end-2026, tying the thesis to 
clearer US regulation, potential monetary easing — including an end to QT and 
expectations of rate cuts and continued ETF penetration, with some large banks 
allowing advisors to recommend Bitcoin ETFs at suggested allocation ranges of 
roughly 1%–4%. Citigroup’s framework was more explicitly scenario-based. With 
Bitcoin around $88,000 in the bank’s note, Citi projected $143,000 over the 
next 12 months. about 62% upside. anchored to expected ETF inflows and 
potential US digital-asset legislation. It flagged $70,000 as a key support 
level, with a bearish case near $78,500 and a bullish scenario at $189,000 if 
institutional and retail participation scale meaningfully. Arthur Hayes linked 
his 2026 range to monetary policy semantics. In his Dec. 19 essay “Love 
Language,” Hayes focused on the Fed’s “RMP (Reserve Management Purchases),” 
arguing it is effectively QE by another name, and suggested Bitcoin could 
break above roughly $124,000 in 2026 and test the ~$200,000 level as global 
money creation accelerates. Related Reading: Bitcoin Nears Red Yearly Close: 
Galaxy Digital Explains The Setup Asset managers were less numeric and more 
directional. Grayscale’s 2026 outlook predicted a new all-time high in the 
first half of 2026, citing sustained institutional demand and a progressively 
clearer US regulatory environment. Bitwise, in “The Year Ahead: 10 Crypto 
Predictions for 2026,” argued 2026 is more likely to “belong to the bulls,” 
contending that institutional adoption and regulatory progress can outweigh 
the usual late-cycle pullback narrative tied to the four-year rhythm. Bearish 
Bitcoin Price Predictions For 2026 The bearish case in the Wu Blockchain 
roundup is not a single thesis so much as multiple failure modes. CryptoQuant 
argued that demand growth has slowed enough that Bitcoin may already be in a 
bear phase, with a nearer-term move toward ~$70,000 and a deeper pullback 
toward ~$56,000, around its model’s realized price, framed as more plausible 
in the second half of 2026 if institutional demand weakens and derivatives 
risk appetite fades. Veteran trader Peter Brandt focused on technical 
structure rather than demand. He warned that a parabolic growth structure has 
broken and, based on historical cycle behavior and the idea of “exponential 
decay” in each successive bull run, said an ~80% drawdown from an all-time 
high could point toward ~$25,000 as a downside reference. The most extreme 
call came from Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone, who warned 
Bitcoin could drop to around $10,000 in 2026, roughly an 88%–90% decline from 
its all-time high, on a macro shift toward “post-inflation deflation,” tighter 
liquidity, and a broader speculative-asset reset. Barclays and VanEck avoided 
explicit targets but arrived at a similar mood: absent major catalysts, 2026 
could be flat to weaker, with declining spot volumes and faded retail 
participation. VanEck described a “consolidation” year, more digestion than 
breakout, with opportunities shifting toward second-order developments like 
mining economics and stablecoin payments rather than headline price levels. 
Taken together, the 2026 map reads less like a consensus trade and more like a 
stress test: if ETF and institutional channels keep compounding and policy 
tailwinds materialize, six figures remain the modal forecast. If demand stalls 
or macro liquidity tightens, the market’s lower-bound debates — $70,000, 
$56,000, $25,000, or even $10,000 — will matter just as much for positioning 
as the bulls’ $150,000–$250,000 ceiling. At press time, BTC traded at $88,027. 
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

2026 Bitcoin Price Predictions: What Banks, Institutions And Experts Forecast

Law and Ledger is a news segment focusing on crypto legal news, brought to you 
by Kelman Law – A law firm focused on digital asset commerce. Is Crypto a 
Security? Part VI The opinion editorial below was written by Alex Forehand and 
Michael Handelsman for Kelman.Law. With the legal landscape still fragmented 
and formal […]

Is Crypto a Security? Part VI: Practical Compliance Guidance

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