Bitcoin has opened December 2025 on the back foot, and market structure around 
the new monthly candle is already drawing close scrutiny from traders. How 
Will Bitcoin Perform In December? Sharing a year-to-date chart on X, trader 
Daan Crypto Trades highlighted a recurring pattern in 2025: Bitcoin often sets 
its monthly extreme early. “We know by now that the first move does often 
create the monthly high or low within the first ~12 days,” he wrote. “This 
happens about 80% of the months.” His chart marks how February’s low, March’s 
high, April’s low, May’s low, July’s inflection, and the key October and 
November pivots all occurred within that window, with June and August flagged 
as exceptions. December, so far, is conforming in form if not yet in outcome. 
“Price has taken a quick dive straight from the candle open so far in 
December, leaving no wick above either,” Daan noted. “This doesn’t make for 
the strongest high.” That kind of immediate one-sided move, he argues, is 
often revisited: “Good to watch closely in the 1–2 weeks ahead. Often these 
instant moves from the open, do end getting retested. October was a good 
example of that recently.” Related Reading: $56,000 Bitcoin Bottom? Burniske 
Thinks The Market Still Has To Break Zooming in, Daan’s second chart sets out 
the key levels. After bottoming near $80,714 on November 21, Bitcoin staged 
roughly a +15% relief rally into a thick prior support-turned-resistance zone 
in the low-$93,000s. That first test failed, with price rejected and rolling 
back over. “BTC rejecting from the previous support &amp; resistance area,” he 
wrote. “Not something you want to see as a bull. Price saw a decent +15% 
relief rally but has lost steam again after a week already.” On that same 
chart he plots a short-term Fibonacci retracement from the $93,175 local high 
down to the $80,714 low. The 0.786 retracement level sits around $83,381, 
close to spot at the time of posting. “It is early in the week/month,” he 
added, “and we do often see sharp moves straight from that new monthly candle. 
These often aren’t the strongest highs/lows set straight at the start of a new 
month. So good to watch in the days ahead. (You guys also know I love my .786 
fib retests so watching closely around this area).” That leaves a clear 
tactical map: immediate downside levels around the 0.786 retrace and the prior 
low, with upside conviction only returning if price can re-enter and reclaim 
the mid-to-high-$80,000s former support zone. A separate post from Daan 
situates this setup within December’s broader historical profile. Sharing a 
Coinglass table of Bitcoin’s monthly returns from 2013 onward, he described 
December as “pretty mixed but [one that] has seen some big outliers with a lot 
of volatility.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Flashes Largest Hidden-Buying Spike 
of the Cycle Despite Losing $90K Level The data support that: past Decembers 
range from large gains above 30–40% to deep drawdowns exceeding -30%. The 
average December return sits in modest positive territory (+4.75%), while the 
median is slightly negative (-3.22%), underscoring that there is no simple 
“Santa rally” effect; instead, dispersion and volatility dominate. For Daan, 
part of that behaviour is structural. “Don’t be surprised if you see some 
weird flows at the end and start of the year,” he warned. “Generally this is a 
period where large holders/funds and such rebalance their books. We might also 
see the effect of tax loss harvesting at some point.” Those portfolio 
adjustments and tax-driven trades can magnify moves in both directions, 
particularly in an asset that still trades with pockets of thin liquidity. His 
practical takeaway is deliberately conservative: “Good to just be allocated in 
a way that feels comfortable for you. Whatever the end of 2025 and start of 
2026 will bring.” At press time, BTC traded at $87,323. Featured image created 
with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

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