A prominent macro-crypto commentator argues that digital assets are 
transitioning from a greed-driven cycle to a “fear bubble,” with Bitcoin 
poised for a more powerful and more parabolic phase in 2026 than the euphoric 
surge of 2017. In a post on X from October 8, the analyst known as plur_daddy 
(@plur_daddy) contends that two narratives—monetary debasement and artificial 
intelligence—are now the dominant behavioral drivers, and that they operate 
less on promise than on anxiety. 2017 Vibes: Trump And AI Could Ignite Next 
Bitcoin Rally “We are in a bubble, and the most parabolic leg is approaching. 
The true fireworks will be next year but this Q4 we shall get a taste,” he 
wrote, adding that the stories animating this cycle are “fueled by twin 
narratives: debasement and AI. What is especially potent about these stories 
is the way they operate on fear, not hope. You NEED to buy gold/BTC to avoid 
getting your net worth debased away, and you NEED to have AI exposure to 
offset your future loss of labor market value.” While the themes are familiar 
to market professionals, he argues they have not yet been fully internalized 
by the broader public or by “bureaucratic real money funds such as pensions 
and endowments,” which he characterizes as slow to reposition for debasement 
risk. The result, he suggests, is under-owned exposure that can be forced 
higher once allocation committees catch up. “There is also a lot of investor 
capital that still hasn&#8217;t reflected these views yet,” he wrote, laying the 
groundwork for what he believes will be a structurally higher demand base for 
both Bitcoin and gold as the cycle matures. Related Reading: Bitcoin Will Not 
Crash: Jeff Park Rejects Paul Tudor Jones’ 1999 Comparison A central pillar of 
his thesis is a policy pivot he expects under the current administration, 
which he describes as “shifting in a pro-cyclical manner, leaning hard into 
the bubble, and ready to step on the gas ahead of the midterms.” He outlines 
four channels. First, “Trump Fed Hijacking,” shorthand for rate cuts followed 
by yield curve control to cushion the bond market and stimulate housing—timed 
“most likely… not… until May of next year,” which he frames as the ignition 
point for the final, steep ascent. Second, a Treasury issuance tilt to bills 
to pull down long-end yields and free up risk appetite. Third, enabling the 
GSE balance sheets to expand into mortgage bonds, compressing mortgage spreads 
and transmitting stimulus to housing via purchases and refinancing. Fourth, 
stimulus checks delivered through budget reconciliation—politically contested, 
he concedes, but with “decent odds” of prevailing given “ironclad” party 
control. Each mechanism, as he describes it, reduces financial frictions at 
the same time that fear-based narratives pull new capital into hard assets and 
AI-adjacent equities. The macro mix, in his view, is complicated but 
ultimately supportive. “The economy is not robust, but it is chugging along, 
floated by AI capex… a two speed economy, with real world businesses and the 
average consumer not doing great, but the high end and asset owners are 
soaring.” Moments later he sharpened the framing: “the two speed economy makes 
it goldilocks as the genuine weakness in parts of the economy creates a 
justification for continued fiscal/monetary stimulus while continuing to 
benefit asset owners. Be the asset owner, the beneficiary of it all.” This is 
the crux of the “fear bubble” argument: soft spots provide the political cover 
for policy support, while debasement concerns and job-market anxieties around 
AI keep households and institutions defensively overweight exposure to scarce 
assets and growth narratives. Why Q1 2026 Could See A Bitcoin Rally Pause For 
Bitcoin specifically, he lays out a path that interleaves seasonal strength, 
cycle reflexivity, and a final acceleration. “My base case is a strong Q4 for 
BTC, then a sharp downturn as the 4 year cycle debate must be played out in 
the markets, and finally a rebound that leaves doubters in the dust.” He later 
endorsed the possibility of “truly manic vertical days at the very end. 
Similar in vibes to early Dec 2017 in BTC,” invoking the last cycle’s most 
frenetic stage but recasting the psychology from greed to fear-driven 
defensiveness. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s On-Chain Roadmap Shows $111,000 – 
$143,000 As The Range To Watch The thread triggered broader speculation about 
end-cycle dynamics. Responding to a scenario from another user—“some kind of 
point in 2026 or 2027 where everyone collectively decides that the USD is 
going to 0 very quickly and impulsively buys whatever they can to get rid of 
it… Everything pumps +30% for 3 days straight… And then that is the 
top”—plur_daddy didn’t endorse the currency-collapse framing but did agree on 
the “truly manic vertical days at the very end.” Despite the bullish 
architecture, the analyst does not claim the underlying economy is healthy or 
that the path will be smooth. He argues instead that policy 
engineering—whether via issuance tactics, mortgage-market plumbing, or 
outright transfers—can keep liquidity channels open long enough to accelerate 
asset prices into a blow-off. “This is an environment where you want to stay 
long over the next 12 months, but you should be thoughtful in shifting 
portfolio composition between gold, BTC, and stocks,” he wrote, describing a 
rotation that acknowledges both macro dispersion and the possibility of sharp 
drawdowns en route to a higher peak. The bottom line of his thesis is 
unambiguous: the next stage of this cycle is fear-led, policy-fueled, and 
likely to exceed 2017’s magnitude. The difference, he argues, is psychological 
and structural. Where 2017 fed on retail euphoria, 2025–26 is animated by the 
defensive compulsion to preserve purchasing power and job relevance—“fear… is 
a much more potent driver of behavior than hope or even greed.” If his 
timeline holds, a taste in Q4, a shakeout on cycle debates, and a policy- 
catalyzed vertical in 2026 could define Bitcoin’s next act. At press time, BTC 
traded at $122,512. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from 
TradingView.com

From Greed To Fear: Expert Says 2026 Bitcoin Bubble Will Dwarf 2017

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