Bitcoin is heading into the final stretch of 2025 with an unusual setup. 
Despite printing a new all-time high in October, the price has since pulled 
back enough to put the annual performance at risk of closing negative. That 
difference puts into context how the current cycle should be interpreted and 
what it means for Bitcoin’s price outlook. According to one analyst, the 
answer is less dramatic than it may appear at first glance, and Bitcoin might 
be about to enter into a bear market. A Red Close Would Identify A Bear 
Market, Not A Broken Cycle Bitcoin’s long-term price action has often followed 
a familiar rhythm, with three consecutive green yearly candles eventually 
giving way to a red close. This sequence has appeared multiple times since 
2011, leading many traders to expect the same structure to repeat in the 
current cycle. This time, however, the pattern has shifted. Although both 2023 
and 2024 closed in the green, 2025 is on track to finish negative, 
interrupting the usual progression. Related Reading: Why The Current XRP 
Valuation Doesn’t Make Sense Crypto analyst CryptoBullet noted that a red 
close for Bitcoin in 2025 would simply confirm that the cycle has transitioned 
into a bear phase, not that the four-year cycle is broken. In his view, the 
color of the yearly candle is often misunderstood. What matters most is where 
Bitcoin forms its cycle highs and lows, not whether a specific post-halving 
year finishes green or red. He explains that if 2025 closes in the red, the 
yearly candle is likely to form a doji candlestick. In technical analysis, 
doji candles reflect indecision after strong upside expansion and often lead 
to trend reversals. In this context, such a close would correspond with 
Bitcoin having already completed its cycle top earlier in October, when it 
reached a new peak of $126,080. In previous cycles, once a new high is set in 
the post-halving year, Bitcoin’s price action transitions into a prolonged 
corrective phase regardless of how that year ultimately closes. Bitcoin Chart 
Image From X. Source: @CryptoBullet1 What To Expect For Bitcoin In 2026 
Responding to comments on his technical analysis on X, Crypto analyst 
CryptoBullet reiterated that he is sticking with an analysis he first shared 
on December 2, which also proposes that Bitcoin’s cycle top is already in. 
Bitcoin opened 2025 around $93,396 and has since fallen well below its October 
peak, a structure he says closely resembles the post-top consolidation seen in 
2019. Related Reading: $130 Million XRP Fumble: Analyst Reveals What Went 
Wrong In that earlier cycle, Bitcoin spent months trading roughly 30% below 
its high while altcoins, measured through the OTHERS/BTC chart, formed a cycle 
bottom and began to recover. CryptoBullet believes the same dynamic is 
unfolding now, but on a larger scale, with altcoins having underperformed 
Bitcoin for nearly four years. Bitcoin Bear Market Setup. Source: 
@CryptoBullet1 on X Based on that setup, he expects a dead cat bounce in early 
2026, accompanied by a short-lived rotation into altcoins, before a much 
deeper correction takes hold across Bitcoin as the bear market progresses. 
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

What Happens If The Bitcoin Price Closes 2025 In The Red? Analyst Answers

The Federal Reserve’s December dot plot revealed sharp divisions on 2026 rate 
cuts, with analysts predicting one to two cuts could shape crypto momentum.

What the Fed’s divided 2026 outlook means for Bitcoin and crypto

Lighter&#8217;s surge in trading volume and LIT token launch could reshape the 
competitive landscape of decentralized perpetual futures trading.
The post Lighter hits $200B in 30-day trading volume, overtaking Hyperliquid 
amid LIT token launch appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

Lighter hits $200B in 30-day trading volume, overtaking Hyperliquid amid LIT token launch

Bitcoin price trimmed all gains and dived below $88,000. BTC is now recovering 
losses from the $86,700 support but faces many hurdles. Bitcoin started a 
recovery wave above the $88,000 zone. The price is trading above $88,000 and 
the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There was a break above a declining 
channel with resistance at $87,300 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair 
(data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move up if it stays above 
the $87,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Remains Bid Near Support Bitcoin price 
attempted a fresh increase above $88,500 but failed. BTC trimmed all gains and 
dived below $88,000. However, the bulls were active near the $86,700 zone. A 
low was formed at $86,700, and the price recently started a fresh increase. 
There was a clear move above the $88,000 resistance, and the 50% Fib 
retracement level of the downward move from the $90,298 swing high to the 
$86,700 low. Besides, there was a break above a declining channel with 
resistance at $87,300 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now 
trading above $88,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. If the price 
remains stable above $87,500, it could attempt a fresh recovery wave. 
Immediate resistance is near the $88,500 level. The first key resistance is 
near the $88,900 level or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move 
from the $90,298 swing high to the $86,700 low. The next resistance could be 
$89,500. A close above the $89,500 resistance might send the price further 
higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $90,200 
resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $90,500 level. The 
next barrier for the bulls could be $91,200 and $91,500. Another Decline In 
BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $89,000 resistance zone, it could 
start another decline. Immediate support is near the $87,850 level. The first 
major support is near the $87,500 level. The next support is now near the 
$86,700 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $85,500 support 
in the near term. The main support sits at $85,000, below which BTC might 
accelerate lower in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The 
MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength 
Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – 
$87,500, followed by $86,700. Major Resistance Levels – $88,500 and $89,000.

Bitcoin Price Resists Breakdown, Support Level Holds—for Now

Bitcoin continues to struggle below the $90,000 mark, reflecting a market that 
has failed to recover bullish momentum after weeks of consolidation. Repeated 
attempts to reclaim higher levels have stalled, reinforcing growing skepticism 
among analysts who now openly discuss the risk of a broader bear market 
extending into 2026. Sentiment remains fragile, dominated by caution and 
reduced risk appetite, as traders wait for clearer confirmation of the next 
directional move. Related Reading: XRP Selling Pressure Returns: Investors 
Shift From Holding to Distribution Still, not everyone is convinced the 
bullish cycle is over. Some investors argue that Bitcoin is entering a 
transitional phase rather than a full trend reversal. According to on-chain 
analyst Axel Adler, the current setup in Bitcoin’s “Supply in Profit” metric 
offers important context. Adler highlights that Supply in Profit has fallen 
sharply from October peaks above 19 million BTC to roughly 13.5 million BTC 
following the correction from all-time highs. This decline pushed the short- 
term 30-day moving average well below the 90-day average, creating a gap of 
around 1.75 million BTC. While a similar configuration appeared in 2022 before 
an extended bearish period, Adler notes a key difference this time: the 
365-day moving average remains historically elevated. Importantly, the 30-day 
average appears to have formed a local bottom in mid-December and is beginning 
to stabilize. Adler argues that if Bitcoin can hold current price levels or 
higher, this stabilization could mark the early groundwork for a renewed 
bullish phase later in 2026. Supply in Profit Signals a Critical Inflection 
Window Axel Adler also shared a forward-looking forecast chart tracking the 
convergence between the 30-day and 90-day moving averages of Bitcoin’s Supply 
in Profit metric, offering a potential roadmap for the next structural shift. 
The model extrapolates current rates of change to estimate when a bullish 
configuration—defined by SMA 30 crossing above SMA 90—could emerge. According 
to Adler’s analysis, the gap between these two moving averages is currently 
narrowing at a pace of roughly 28,000 BTC per day. Importantly, this 
convergence is not being driven by a sharp recovery in Supply in Profit, but 
by a mechanical decline in the SMA 90. As peak October values, when Supply in 
Profit reached 19–20 million BTC, roll out of the 90-day calculation window, 
downward pressure on the longer average creates a temporary “tailwind” for 
convergence. This effect is expected to persist through late January. If 
current conditions hold, Adler projects a potential bullish cross forming 
between late February and early March. However, the forecast remains highly 
price-sensitive. Supply elasticity to price is estimated at 1.3x, meaning a 
10% price decline could trigger a 13% drop in Supply in Profit. The $70,000 
level is critical according to the forecast. Below it, SMA 30 would likely 
fall faster than SMA 90, invalidating the convergence thesis and reopening a 
2022-style prolonged recovery scenario. Related Reading: Chainlink Shows 
Strong Accumulation Signal: LINK Exchange Liquidity Dries Up Bitcoin Price 
Struggles Below Key Resistance Bitcoin continues to trade below the $90,000 
threshold, reflecting a market that remains structurally weak despite short- 
term stabilization. The chart shows BTC consolidating after a sharp breakdown 
from the $100,000–$105,000 region, a move that decisively flipped prior 
support into resistance. This rejection marked a clear loss of bullish control 
and initiated a deeper corrective phase. Price now compresses below the 
downward-sloping 50-day and 100-day moving averages.. This configuration 
reinforces the prevailing bearish trend and suggests that upside attempts are 
likely to face supply pressure. The 200-day moving average, currently well 
above spot price, highlights how far BTC has drifted from its longer-term 
trend equilibrium. Related Reading: Why $100,000 Is Bitcoin’s Most Important 
Resistance Level Momentum has cooled notably since the November sell-off. 
While selling intensity has eased, the absence of strong bullish volume 
indicates that buyers remain cautious. The recent price action resembles a 
consolidation range rather than a reversal, with BTC oscillating between 
roughly $85,000 and $90,000. This behavior often reflects indecision rather 
than accumulation. For now, $90,000 remains the critical level bulls must 
reclaim to shift sentiment meaningfully. Failure to do so keeps downside risks 
in play, with $85,000 acting as near-term support. Until price regains key 
moving averages, the broader structure favors continued range-bound or 
corrective price action. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from 
TradingView.com

Cryptocurrency price in EUR