The founder of CryptoQuant doesn&#8217;t think Bitcoin will see a major crash of 
more than 50% like past bear markets and instead sees sideways action ahead. 
Bitcoin Has Seen A Slowdown In Realized Cap Recently In a new post on X, 
CrypotQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju has talked about how capital inflows 
into Bitcoin have dried up recently. The on-chain indicator that Young Ju has 
cited is the &#8220;Realized Cap,&#8221; which measures the cryptocurrency&#8217;s total value 
by assuming that the value of each token in circulation is equal to the last 
time that it changed hands. In short, what the Realized Cap signifies is the 
total amount of capital that the investors of the asset as a whole have put 
into the network. Changes in the metric, therefore, signify the exit or entry 
of capital relative to BTC. As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin 
Realized Cap enjoyed sharp growth between late 2023 and late 2025, indicating 
that the coin was receiving continuous injections of capital. Related Reading: 
Bitcoin Bounce A Bull Trap? Analyst Sees 2022-Style Bear Flag Recently, 
however, the uptrend in the indicator has seemingly broken, with its value 
facing a small net decline. In the past, bull markets have coincided with an 
upward trajectory in the Realized Cap, with a transition to weak inflows or 
net outflows leading into bearish phases. Considering that the metric&#8217;s trend 
is now hinting at the latter type of market conditions, it&#8217;s possible that a 
bearish transition might be occurring for the cryptocurrency. That said, the 
analyst has pointed out that the latest cycle isn&#8217;t the same as the ones from 
before. &#8220;Liquidity channels are more diverse now, so timing inflows is 
pointless,&#8221; noted Young Ju. &#8220;Institutions holding long-term killed the old 
whale-retail sell cycle.&#8221; Examples of demand channels that didn&#8217;t exist before 
include treasury companies like Strategy and investment vehicles like the spot 
exchange-traded funds (ETFs). &#8220;I don&#8217;t think we&#8217;ll see a -50%+ crash from ATH 
like past bear markets,&#8221; said the CryptoQuant founder. &#8220;Just boring sideways 
for the next few months.&#8221; It now remains to be seen what trajectory Bitcoin 
will end up following. In some other news, on-chain demand as gauged by the 
Realized Cap isn&#8217;t the only one that has declined recently. As CryptoQuant 
community analyst Maartunn has highlighted in an X post, demand from retail 
investors has also been missing. In the chart, the metric shown is the 30-day 
percentage change in the volume associated with the retail investors, the 
smallest of hands on the network. This indicator has been negative lately, 
implying that the volume of transactions valued at less $10,000 has been 
declining on a monthly timeframe. Related Reading: Solana ETF Volume Explodes: 
Anomaly Or New Normal? This hasn&#8217;t changed even after the recent recovery 
surge in Bitcoin. &#8220;The crowd hasn’t returned—yet,&#8221; noted Maartunn. BTC Price 
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $89,900, up 2% in the last 
seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from 
TradingView.com

CryptoQuant CEO Expects Boring Bitcoin Action, Not Major Crash

Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory is drawing renewed focus as macro signals, 
institutional adoption, and policy tailwinds challenge traditional market 
cycles, with Fundstrat’s Tom Lee standing by a $250,000 price target into 
2026. From Cycle to Supercycle: Tom Lee Says Bitcoin’s $250K Path Signals a 
Historic Reset Global markets continue to face shifting macro forces as 
analysts […]

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee Sees Bitcoin Breaking the 4-Year Cycle, Doubles Down on $250K Target

Regulators such as the IMF have warned that stablecoins could disrupt 
traditional finance. But the numbers show interest is high. Very high.

Stablecoins go mainstream as transaction volumes hit $33 trillion

Bitcoin is struggling to maintain the $90,000 level after a sharp rejection 
from the $94,000 resistance zone, keeping market sentiment sharply divided. 
While some analysts argue that BTC is entering a deeper corrective phase, 
others believe the pullback is a necessary reset before a renewed upside 
attempt. The current price action reflects this uncertainty, with volatility 
rising as buyers and sellers battle for short-term control. Related Reading: 
Bitcoin Tests Key Resistance While $4.7B In Sell-Side Liquidity Builds 
According to an analysis shared by Axel Adler, Bitcoin’s short-term risk 
structure remains fragile. His short-term risk chart places BTC below the 
Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis, currently estimated near $100,200. Price 
is also trading beneath all major moving averages, including the 128-day, 
200-day, and 365-day SMAs, reinforcing the view that the broader structure is 
still bearish. At current levels around $91,000, Bitcoin sits in a moderate 
risk zone, positioned between the STH Cost Basis and the -15% downside 
boundary. This positioning suggests that recent rebounds should be treated 
cautiously. Until BTC reclaims the STH Cost Basis, upside moves are more 
likely to represent technical bounces within a downward trend rather than a 
confirmed reversal. Conversely, a breakdown below the moderate risk boundary 
would signal rising downside risk and could accelerate selling pressure. As a 
result, the $90K–$100K range remains a critical battleground for Bitcoin’s 
next directional move. STH Losses Continue To Cap Bitcoin’s Upside Adler’s 
analysis also highlights a second critical framework: the chart tracking 
Bitcoin’s all-time highs alongside euphoria zones and the Short-Term Holder 
Market Value to Realized Value (STH MVRV) indicator. This metric measures the 
ratio between Bitcoin’s current market price and the average realized price of 
coins held by short-term investors, offering a direct view into the 
profitability—and behavior—of this highly reactive cohort. At present, STH 
MVRV sits near 0.92, well below its historical mean of roughly 1.09 and 
decisively under the neutral level of 1.0. In practical terms, this implies 
that the average short-term holder is holding an unrealized loss of about 8%. 
Historically, periods where STH MVRV remains below 1.0 have tended to coincide 
with either capitulation phases or extended consolidation ranges, rather than 
sustained bullish expansions. The last clear euphoria zone on this chart 
appeared during the all-time high update in October 2025, underscoring how far 
current conditions are from a speculative extreme. As long as STH MVRV remains 
below breakeven, short-term holders are incentivized to sell into rallies as 
the price approaches their cost basis. This behavior creates persistent 
overhead supply and reinforces structural resistance near the STH Cost Basis, 
close to the $100,000 level. Consequently, reclaiming that zone is not just a 
psychological milestone but a necessary condition for any meaningful regime 
shift back to a bullish market structure. Related Reading: XRP Sees Back-to- 
Back Liquidation Waves: Binance Absorbs Majority Of Liquidations Bitcoin Price 
Recovery Lacks Confirmation Bitcoin’s price action on the daily chart reflects 
a market still trapped in a fragile recovery attempt after a sharp rejection 
from higher levels. Following the failed breakout above the $94,000–$95,000 
area, BTC experienced a decisive sell-off that pushed the price back toward 
the $85,000 zone, where buyers stepped in aggressively. This reaction marked a 
short-term bottom, but the subsequent rebound has so far lacked structural 
strength. At present, Bitcoin is trading near the $90,000–$91,000 region, a 
former support that has now turned into a key pivot. Price remains below the 
200-day and 365-day moving averages, both of which are sloping downward and 
acting as dynamic resistance. The 128-day moving average has also capped 
recent upside attempts, reinforcing the idea that the broader trend remains 
corrective rather than impulsively bullish. Related Reading: Bitcoin Enters 
Accumulation Regime: Market Supported By Seller Exhaustion, Not Buying Surge 
From a structure standpoint, the chart shows a sequence of lower highs since 
the October peak, suggesting that sellers continue to control the macro trend. 
Volume expanded notably during the November–December sell-off, while the 
current bounce is unfolding on comparatively lighter participation. This 
divergence implies that the move higher may be more short-covering driven than 
supported by strong spot demand. Unless Bitcoin can reclaim and hold above the 
$94,000–$95,000 resistance zone with increasing volume, the risk of another 
rejection remains elevated. Failure to do so could reopen the path toward the 
$85,000 support, where the market would once again be forced to prove its 
underlying strength. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin Remains In A High-Risk Zone As Short-Term Holders Stay Underwater

Brent Johnson, CEO of wealth management firm Santiago Capital and creator of 
the “Dollar Milkshake Theory,” says that stablecoins may end up being the 
“stealth weapon” that the U.S. will use to establish a global power. 
Stablecoins Could Steal the Sovereignty of Smaller Nations, Expert Says In a 
new interview on the Bankless Youtube channel, […]

Cryptocurrency price in EUR