Bitcoin (BTC) began the week with a sharp rebound that briefly lifted the 
world’s largest cryptocurrency back toward the $74,000 mark on Wednesday for 
the first time in more than a month. However, as the week comes to a close, 
that momentum has faded, with BTC sliding back to roughly $68,260. Even with 
the choppy price action, on-chain analytics firm Amber Data argues that the 
broader outlook for Bitcoin remains constructive. In its latest market report, 
the firm suggests that new all-time highs are still possible this year. Post- 
Liquidation Reset Amber Data describes Bitcoin as entering 2026 in an unusual 
position. The market, it says, has been “de-risked” following October’s 
liquidation event, which they assert flushed out excessive leverage from the 
market. In the report, they contend that open interest had climbed to 
“unsustainable levels,” the basis trade had become overcrowded, and funding 
rates reflected stretched positioning. Related Reading: Bank Resistance Puts 
2026 Passage Of Crypto Market Structure Bill In Doubt, Reuters When headlines 
surrounding President Donald Trump’s tariff policies hit the market, the 
overleveraged structure was unable to withstand the selling pressure. The 
result was a cascade of liquidations that wiped out weak hands and reset 
positioning. While painful, the correction served a purpose. Valuations have 
since normalized, leverage has been largely cleared from the system, and the 
Bitcoin market structure appears healthier, Amber Data noted. Yet the recovery 
remains fragile. Liquidity is still impaired, and the carry trade — once a 
major driver of activity — is no longer especially attractive. In Amber Data’s 
view, the market is now structurally sound but lacks a clear catalyst to 
define its next major move. ‘Muddle Through’ Phase In its base case, which it 
assigns a 50% probability, Bitcoin trades between $90,000 and $120,000. This 
outcome envisions extended consolidation until a meaningful macro catalyst 
emerges. Under this “muddle through” scenario, conditions neither worsen 
dramatically nor improve significantly. Volatility compresses, enthusiasm 
cools, and both bullish breakout expectations and bearish collapse predictions 
are repeatedly frustrated. Early signs supporting this scenario would include 
basis annual percentage rates recovering to 8–10%, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows 
turning consistently positive, order book depth returning toward pre-crash 
conditions, and funding rates stabilizing in positive territory. 25% Chance 
Bitcoin Breakout To $180,000 Amber Data assigns a 25% probability to a more 
optimistic outcome, with Bitcoin climbing between $120,000 and $180,000. In 
this bull case, institutional participation accelerates alongside sovereign 
adoption, creating a feedback loop of expanding flows. Early confirmation 
signals would include weekly Bitcoin ETF inflows exceeding $1 billion, basis 
rates expanding beyond 15% as leverage demand surges, and new accumulation 
cohorts appearing in HODL wave data, indicating fresh capital entering at 
scale. Bear Case Targets $60,000 On the downside, Amber Data assigns a 20% 
probability to a bearish scenario in which Bitcoin trades between $60,000 and 
$80,000. This would occur if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate more sharply 
than currently expected and global markets shift decisively into risk-off 
mode. Warning signs would include sustained ETF outflows exceeding $1 billion 
per week, basis yields collapsing below 3%, widespread stablecoin redemptions 
signaling capital flight, and a potential test of the $80,000 ETF cost basis 
level. Related Reading: XRP Faces High Risk Of Breakdown Below $1.30, Expert 
Flags Bitcoin As Main Threat Finally, the firm outlines a 5% probability 
“volatility and chop” scenario, in which Bitcoin trades between $75,000 and 
$110,000 with no sustained directional trend. Indicators would include sharply 
fluctuating funding rates, repeated spikes and collapses in open interest as 
positions are liquidated on both sides, and inconsistent ETF flows alternating 
between inflows and outflows without a clear pattern. Featured image from 
OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin May Hit $180,000 This Year, But Only If This Scenario Plays Out: Amber Data

The Central Bank of Kazakhstan recently announced that it would set up an 
investment portfolio of up to $350 million to invest in cryptocurrency 
companies and other instruments providing exposure to digital assets, using 
gold, and part of its foreign reserves to this end. Kazakhstan To Invest Up to 
$350 Million In Cryptocurrency Companies Central […]

Kazakhstan Announces Investment of up to $350 Million in Crypto Reserve

Bitcoin whales have sold about 66% of the Bitcoin they recently accumulated 
since Wednesday, according to crypto sentiment platform Santiment.

Bitcoin dip may not be over as retail ramps up buying below $70K: Santiment

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio has witnessed a sharp 
increase recently, indicating that large deposit transactions have gained 
dominance. Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio Has Seen Its 30-Day SMA Value Hit 0.6 
In a new post on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has talked about 
the latest trend in the Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio. This on-chain indicator 
measures the ratio between the sum of the top 10 exchange inflows and the 
total exchange inflow. Related Reading: Bitcoin Faces On-Chain Air Gap To 
$81,000: Will Momentum Build? The ten largest transactions going toward 
exchanges are generally representative of deposit activity from the whale 
entities, so the Exchange Whale Ratio essentially tells us about how the 
inflows from these giants compare with that of the entire market. When the 
value of the metric is high, it means the whales make up for a large share of 
the exchange inflows. As one of the main reasons why investors deposit to 
these platforms is for selling-related purposes, this kind of trend can be a 
sign that big-money holders are potentially distributing. On the other hand, 
the indicator having a low value suggests the whales are making up for a 
relatively healthy portion of the total market deposits, which can be either 
neutral or bullish for the cryptocurrency. Now, here is the chart shared by 
Maartunn that shows the trend in the 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of the 
Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio over the past decade: As displayed in the above 
graph, the 30-day SMA of the Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio floated around the 
0.45 mark during 2025, suggesting whale-sized transactions were making up for 
less than 50% of the exchange deposit activity. Recently, however, the 
indicator has witnessed a sharp increase. This surge arrived as BTC saw its 
leg down to $60,000 in early February, but the metric&#8217;s value hasn&#8217;t calmed 
down even as the asset has stabilized. Today, the Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio 
has a value of 0.6, meaning that the ten largest deposit transactions alone 
add up to 60% of the exchange inflow volume. It now remains to be seen how the 
BTC price will develop in the near future, given this possible selling 
pressure being applied by the large hands. In some other news, the Bitcoin 
Inter-exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) has just seen a trend flip, as the analyst has 
highlighted in another X post. The IFP keeps track of the flows occurring 
between spot and derivatives exchanges. Earlier, this metric fell under its 
90-day SMA and entered into a period of downtrend, implying speculative 
activity was declining. Related Reading: Bitcoin Spot ETFs See 14-Day Netflows 
Surge: Demand Returning? From the chart, it&#8217;s visible that the IFP has 
recently turned back up and crossed beyond the 90-day, implying derivatives 
flows could be making a comeback. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is 
floating around $68,400, up more than 4% in the last seven days. Featured 
image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin Big-Money On The Move: Exchange Whale Ratio Spikes To 0.6

Mixers, privacy coins and the threat quantum computing could pose to Bitcoin 
were all points of speculation across the industry following the release of 
Trump’s Cyber Strategy.

Cryptocurrency price in EUR