While gold has posted major gains, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to show major signs 
of weakness, with prices drifting toward lower support levels and now 
approaching the closely watched $82,000 mark, a pivotal point in determining 
the next major direction for the world’s largest cryptocurrency. Against this 
backdrop, market analyst Doctor Profit has drawn attention to what he 
describes as one of the most important charts of the current Bitcoin cycle: 
the Gold‑to‑Bitcoin (GOLD/BTC) ratio. What The Gold-To-Bitcoin Ratio Suggests 
According to Profit, this chart has repeatedly provided reliable signals for 
major market tops and bottoms. He noted that he first shared this framework 
nearly a year ago, highlighting a historical pattern in which Bitcoin tends to 
peak when 0.02 BTC equals one ounce of gold, and bottom when that ratio 
reaches 0.11 BTC per ounce. Related Reading: Bitcoin Slides Toward $85,000 
Despite Progress On US Crypto Market Structure Bill Profit pointed out that 
this relationship played out during the previous cycle, accurately marking 
Bitcoin’s top in 2021 and its bottom in 2022. He argues that the same pattern 
has repeated in the current cycle, claiming Bitcoin’s recent top near $125,000 
when the gold‑to‑Bitcoin ratio once again reached the 0.02 level. The key 
question now, he says, is whether the market will again reach the 0.11 
BTC‑per‑ounce level that has historically signaled a bottom. Based on current 
prices, Profit walked through the math. Assuming a gold price of roughly 
$5,500 per ounce, dividing that figure by 0.11 implies a Bitcoin price near 
$50,000. That outcome, he noted, aligns with his broader expectation that 
Bitcoin’s cycle low could fall somewhere between $50,000 and $60,000. He added 
that even under a more bullish scenario for gold, the analysis still supports 
his thesis. If gold were to rise to $7,000 per ounce, the same ratio would 
imply a Bitcoin bottom near $63,000. In his view, both scenarios reinforce the 
idea that gold is likely to outperform Bitcoin in the coming months. BTC 
Nearing Late‑Cycle Bear Phase? Not all analysts, however, share that bearish 
outlook for Bitcoin. Offering a contrasting perspective, technical analyst 
Michael van de Poppe suggested that gold’s recent strength could be nearing 
exhaustion, potentially setting the stage for capital to rotate back into 
Bitcoin. Van de Poppe highlighted the relative strength index (RSI) of Bitcoin 
measured against gold on the weekly timeframe, noting that it has reached the 
lowest level ever recorded. In his assessment, this suggests a sharp imbalance 
in valuations, with one asset appearing overextended in the short term and the 
other deeply undervalued. He described the situation as part of what he calls 
the “big rotation” phase of the market cycle. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply 
In Loss Begins To Rise, Raising Early Bear Market Concerns The analyst also 
pointed to Bitcoin’s Z‑Score indicator, a metric used to assess whether the 
cryptocurrency is overvalued or undervalued by comparing its market 
capitalization to its realized capitalization, adjusted for volatility. 
According to van de Poppe, the current Z‑Score for Bitcoin is lower than it 
was at several major historical bottoms, including those seen in 2015, 2018, 
the COVID‑19 crash in 2020, and the 2022 bear market low. In his view, this 
signals that BTC is already deep into a bear‑market phase and may be 
approaching its final stages. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at 
$83,435, with losses of 2.2% and 7% recorded in the 24-hour and seven-day time 
frames, respectively. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

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