I started looking into Bitcoin since 2019 and observing market since then. Here I will express my views on Bitcoin based on my prior experience. Any view should not be considered as a financial advice.

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The Take It Down Act has secured its first federal conviction, with an Ohio 
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Crypto market analyst Marmot has sounded the alarm on the latest Bitcoin price 
surge, warning that the cryptocurrency’s rally above $70,000 is a “very, very 
bad” signal. He argues that Bitcoin has not flipped into bullish territory, 
urging investors and traders not to mistake the recent rebound as a sign of 
sustained recovery. Based on his technical analysis, Marmot believes that 
Bitcoin is yet to reach its true bottom, warning that the flagship 
cryptocurrency could still face another sharp decline. Why The Bitcoin Price 
Rebound Above $70,000 Is Bad Marmot has called Bitcoin’s price rebound above 
$74,000 a trap. In a post on X, he emphasized how dire the situation 
surrounding BTC is, suggesting that the market could be headed for a deeper 
pullback to new lows once the uptrend reverses. The analyst noted that 
Bitcoin’s pump above $72,000 was not without reason, highlighting that the 
bounce was a carefully designed whale trap to attract retail buyers before a 
broader sell-off. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Must Hold This Level Or Price 
Could Crash To $65,000 Again Marmot urged investors not to mistake this relief 
rally as the beginning of a new bull run. He noted that similar rallies have 
historically lured traders into poorly timed entries, only to be flushed out. 
The analyst also outlined why 90% of BTC traders typically get wiped out in 
November 2026, when previous bear market cycles bottomed. According to Marmot, 
during a bear market, Bitcoin often experiences bull traps, in which sudden 
price pumps create the illusion that the downtrend has ended. This move tends 
to fuel hope and trigger FOMO among investors, leading many to buy into the 
rebound. Once this happens, Bitcoin’s price reverses sharply to the downside, 
often falling back to levels it reached before the rally began, triggering 
heavy liquidations. The analyst emphasized that, beneath the recent price 
strength, global liquidity is drying up as institutions quietly exit the 
market to limit downside risk. With weaker demand and ongoing geopolitical 
tensions weighing heavily on market sentiment, Marmot believes Bitcoin’s bear 
market bottom is still very far away. Timeline And Target For Bitcoin’s Price 
Bottom In his chart analysis, Marmot referenced past cycles, noting that 
Bitcoin has historically experienced long drawdowns before forming a bottom. 
He pointed out that in 2012, Bitcoin traded sideways for up to 405 days before 
it hit a bottom. In the 2026 cycle, the cryptocurrency found a price floor 
after about 362 days, and finally, in 2020, the market declined for roughly 
376 days before reaching a bottom. Related Reading: What The Bitcoin Relief 
Rally Above $71,000 Says About Where The Price Is Headed Based on this 
historical bear market pattern, Marmot estimates that Bitcoin’s capitulation 
phase in this cycle could occur between July and November 2026. His chart 
shows that BTC’s price could rise even higher above $78,000 before 
experiencing a final pullback below $54,000, where it may likely find its true 
bottom. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Don’t Celebrate Bitcoin Price Above $70,000, Analyst Says It’s “Very, Very Bad”

Short-term Bitcoin traders took profit on 63,000 BTC over the past 24-hours. 
Will profit-taking continue to stall the rally?

Bitcoin traders cash out 63K BTC profit as price rallied above $76K: Will the market rebound?

The contracts mark Injective’s first entry into US-regulated derivatives 
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Bitnomial launches Injective futures in US, with eyes on ETF eligibility

Bitcoin (BTC) is pressing up against a major decision point after failing to 
break above the $76,000 resistance level. Following consecutive rejections in 
that area, the cryptocurrency has shifted into consolidation once again. 
Bitcoin Set For A ‘Final Push’ One of the latest bullish takes came on 
Wednesday from market analyst Ted Pillows, who recently suggested that Bitcoin 
has broken out of a broader 7-month downtrend. In his view, this shift is 
supported by a technical signal on the weekly chart: a weekly MACD bullish 
cross. Pillows argues that, together, these developments could trigger what he 
describes as a final push higher, with BTC potentially targeting the 
$77,000–$78,000 zone. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Breaks Higher: What The 
Market Data Says Could Happen Next Yet Pillows also included a warning that 
tempers the upside outlook. He said that after Bitcoin reaches that area, the 
cryptocurrency could fall to new yearly lows in the second quarter, without 
offering a specific price level for how low BTC might drop. In explaining why 
a bottom might form later, Pillows pointed to the macroeconomic backdrop. He 
believes the new Federal Reserve (Fed) chair will accelerate rate cuts and 
drive liquidity injections in the third quarter as mid-term elections 
approach. According to his scenario, that policy shift would help establish a 
market bottom for Bitcoin and could set the stage for a “V-shape” recovery, 
similar to what the market experienced during March 2020 and again in April 
2025. Extreme Capitulation Scenario A separate technical post from analyst Ali 
Martinez focused more directly on timing and “capitulation” levels that could 
define the floor. Martinez highlighted the Long-Term Holder (LTH) Realized 
Price of approximately $49,387 as what he called the final line of defense for 
the cycle. Related Reading: What Presidio Bitcoin Found About Quantum 
Computing: Threat Timeline And Next Steps In his framework, if Bitcoin reaches 
that level and holds, it may prevent the market from sliding into a more 
severe outcome. However, Martinez also described an extreme scenario—what he 
referred to as a “black swan” event—where a further wick down could occur to 
the -0.2 Standard Deviation Band at $36,657. Martinez suggested that these two 
levels can be viewed as “Generational Entries,” meaning they could represent 
points where longer-term participants step in and where conditions begin to 
shift from capitulation toward recovery. Featured image from OpenArt, chart 
from TradingView.com

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