I started looking into Bitcoin since 2019 and observing market since then. Here I will express my views on Bitcoin based on my prior experience. Any view should not be considered as a financial advice.

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Bitcoin’s advance over the past four weeks is colliding with a derivatives 
market that still looks positioned for weakness. Analysts tracking Binance 
funding and futures basis say traders continue to lean short even as BTC moves 
higher, creating what CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost described via X as a 
“phase of disbelief” rather than a clean bullish reset. That divergence 
matters because it suggests the rally is unfolding against persistent 
skepticism, not broad conviction. In crypto, that kind of setup can cut both 
ways: it can signal fragile market structure, but it can also provide fuel if 
bearish positioning is forced to unwind. Darkfost pointed to the 30-day 
cumulative evolution of Binance funding rates as the clearest sign that the 
market remains out of sync with price. “We’ve been hearing a lot about funding 
rates lately, as they remain negative even while Bitcoin continues to move 
higher,” he wrote. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Cycle Is Right On Schedule: 
Analyst Reveals When The Bull Run Will Begin “This chart offers a different 
perspective from what is usually observed. It shows the 30 day cumulative 
evolution of funding rates on Binance, making it easier to clearly identify 
when funding entered a sustained negative trend.” His comparison was to late 
2022, when Bitcoin was beginning to emerge from the bear market. At that 
point, Binance funding rates kept falling and reached as low as -7% on a 
30-day cumulative basis. Today, the same indicator sits around -4.5%, which, 
in his view, shows how aggressively traders have continued betting against the 
move in recent months. Darkfost’s argument is not simply that funding is 
negative, but that the persistence of that negativity reflects a market still 
trying to fade price strength. “Each time such a strong consensus has formed, 
it has instead helped create a bottom and fueled the rally that was beginning 
to develop,” he said. “As I mentioned several days ago, the market has entered 
a phase of disbelief, where traders still prefer fighting the trend rather 
than following it.” Bitcoin Derivatives Market In A Regime Of Caution On-chain 
analyst Axel Adler Jr. approached the same backdrop from a more defensive 
angle. In his April 23 market note, he argued that Bitcoin’s derivatives 
structure is “rapidly losing its bullish structure” as the short-term futures 
premium over spot nearly disappears. The 7-day basis SMA dropped from +0.465% 
to +0.054% in just four days, while the funding rate 7DMA remained negative at 
-0.00945%. For Adler, the message is straightforward: the market is no longer 
willing to pay up for long leverage. “Basis 7D SMA has sharply compressed and 
is almost at zero, showing that the futures premium over spot has nearly 
vanished,” he wrote. “This is not just a local cooldown &#8211; it is nearly a 
complete disappearance of the futures premium over spot. Meanwhile, the 30D 
SMA remains noticeably higher, around +0.41%, meaning the short-term 
derivatives structure has deteriorated much faster than the medium-term norm.” 
Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Rebuild As Futures Metric Hits 4-Month High He 
made a similar point on funding. “What matters is not just the negative 
reading itself, but its persistence,” Adler said. “This is not a one-off spike 
or a panic anomaly within a single hour. This is a steady accumulation of 
bearish positioning, where the market continues to pay for short exposure.” 
Taken together, the two analysts are reading the same data through slightly 
different lenses. Darkfost sees disbelief as a potentially constructive 
condition for the ongoing rally, especially if consensus remains heavily 
skewed against price. Adler sees a market that has lost its bullish premium 
and is shifting into a more cautious regime unless basis and funding recover. 
At press time, BTC traded at $77,836. Featured image created with DALL.E, 
chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin Enters Disbelief Phase As Traders Keep Shorting The Rally

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