Atul Gupta

I started looking into Bitcoin since 2019 and observing market since then. Here I will express my views on Bitcoin based on my prior experience. Any view should not be considered as a financial advice.

21million

marcos carneiro

Sayan Chowdhury

umrav singh

Kiran Sali

muhammad huzaifa

Jai baba Bhole ki

Syed Omer

Rahul Srinivas

Price feeds for SPYon, QQQon and TSLAon are now live on Ethereum, allowing the 
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markets.

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A House Committee on Financial Services hearing on Wednesday dredged up 
concerns about the pro-crypto regulatory shift under the Trump administration.

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Bitcoin’s price is often framed as the result of one dominant factor, whether 
it’s the halving cycle, macro liquidity, or speculative demand, and this view 
misses the deeper reality of how the asset actually trades. BTC exists within 
a complex economic environment where multiple forces act simultaneously, each 
influencing price in different ways. When Bitcoin Cycles And Macro Cycles 
Overlap Multiple interacting processes shape Bitcoin and the broader business 
cycle, and the dynamics are more complex than a single narrative. Crypto 
analyst Giovanni has highlighted on X that the FOMO halving narrative had 
heavily driven the early BTC cycle, and the social feedback loop matters. At 
the same time, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) also exhibited a 4-year 
periodicity, and this does not mean the BTC halving cycle was irrelevant. 
Related Reading: Bitcoin Is The Money Of The AI-Powered Economy: CryptoQuant 
CEO These two cycles are interacting, and that interaction is precisely what 
needs to be quantified and understood, rather than dismissed with hand-waving 
explanations. Giovanni emphasized that the halving cycle is still real for 
miners and never disappeared. Block rewards are reduced on a fixed schedule, 
and that mechanical change directly impacts miner economics. By extension, 
these effects propagate into the broader BTC economy in one form or another. 
The explanation is not credible if the pendulum swings from &#8220;the 4-year cycle 
is an illusion&#8221; to &#8220;the 4-year cycle halving cycle explains everything.&#8221; 
Replacing one oversimplified story with another doesn’t improve understanding; 
it just shifts the blind spot. There are solid mathematical tools designed to 
study cycle coupling, phase alignment, and interaction effects. Giovanni 
argues that applying these tools is the right path, and doing so is unlikely 
to produce a new simple narrative. What will likely emerge is a richer 
structure, where internal and external cycles interact in nontrivial ways. How 
The Model Estimates Up And Down Outcomes An analyst known as The Smart Ape 
pointed out on X about developing a theoretical probability model to estimate 
Bitcoin&#8217;s up and down price outcomes in the 15-minute markets on Polymarket. 
The model is intentionally simple, calculating probabilities by using the 
target price, the current BTC price, and the remaining before the market round 
closes. What stood out most was how closely the theoretical outputs matched 
real market probabilities. The difference between the market prices and model 
probabilities was consistently within a narrow 1-5% range, suggesting that the 
model tracks actual market behaviour with remarkable accuracy. Related 
Reading: Top Analyst Says ‘Paper Bitcoin’ Is Driving The Market, Not The 21 
Million Supply Cap In this market, probabilities are directly set by traders, 
which clearly shows how bot-dominated these markets are and are driven by 
logical rules and algorithms. The Smart Ape argues that if the market were 
primarily driven by human traders, real probabilities wouldn&#8217;t align this 
tightly with a theoretical model. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from 
Tradingview.com

Why Bitcoin Can’t Be Explained By A Single Economic Cycle

Michael Saylor says Strategy has no plans to sell its bitcoin, even in a 
prolonged downturn, as BTC trades near $65,900 to $66,150. Strategy Won’t Sell 
BTC as Saylor Dismisses Liquidation Fears Michael Saylor has once again made 
clear that Strategy’s bitcoin playbook is unchanged: accumulate and hold. 
Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box, the company’s […]

Michael Saylor Vows Strategy Will Keep Buying Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s rejection at $70,000 and the large liquidity void below leave 
$60,000 vulnerable, a move analysts see as likely in the coming days.

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