TABISH JAMAL

I started looking into Bitcoin since 2019 and observing market since then. Here I will express my views on Bitcoin based on my prior experience. Any view should not be considered as a financial advice.

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Bitcoin’s six-week collapse has erased over $40,000 from its price, 
yet—according to Jeff Park, CIO at ProCap BTC and Bitwise advisor—the more 
important story may lie not in spot markets but in volatility. In his November 
22 Substack post “Where Does Bitcoin Go From Here?”, Park argues that “market 
structure has flipped sharply negative,” citing ETF outflows, the Coinbase 
discount, structural selling, and liquidations of over-levered longs. But 
beneath that surface stress, he says, “something in the structure of Bitcoin’s 
volatility markets is stirring again—something that looks more like the old 
Bitcoin, not the new one.” Sudden Twist In Bitcoin Skew Has Expert On High 
Alert For nearly two years, the consensus has been that the ETF era “tamed 
Bitcoin” and “crushed volatility.” Spot ETFs channeled institutional flows 
into volatility-muting structures, dampening the wild swings that once defined 
BTC. Yet Park notes that over the last 60 days, implied volatility (IV) has 
trended higher for the first time in 2025. Even more telling: IV kept rising 
while spot fell—an uncommon dynamic since ETFs launched. That, he says, “might 
be the first signal of a regime shift” back toward pre-ETF market behavior. 
Related Reading: Bitcoin Local Bottom To Fall Between These Two Levels – 
Analyst Historical context sharpens his point. Between 2021 and 2022, IV 
spiked repeatedly—156% during China’s mining ban, 114% in the Luna/UST 
collapse, and again in the 3AC and FTX crises. Since FTX, volatility “has 
never traded above 80%,” and vol-of-vol (the “velocity” of volatility itself) 
has remained below 100, a post-ETF pattern of subdued convexity. But the 
latest upward drift, Park argues, suggests that the “convex, breakaway vol 
behavior” that once defined Bitcoin could be re-emerging. That shift carries 
structural implications. During past crises, put skew widened sharply, 
reaching –25%. But Park highlights an opposite kind of stress test—January 
2021—when call skew surged above +50% and triggered Bitcoin’s last “mega-gamma 
squeeze.” Dealers short call gamma were forced to buy spot into a rising 
market, pushing BTC from $20,000 to $40,000 in weeks. It was, he recalls, “the 
first time Deribit saw record retail flows as traders discovered the power of 
OTM calls.” Today’s skew data looks different but potentially telling. “The 
30-day put skew is the lowest it has been all year,” Park writes, suggesting 
defensive premiums are elevated and “further volatility to the downside is not 
unwarranted.” Yet Deribit’s open interest shows a market still leaning bullish 
in notional terms. Related Reading: Only An Asteroid Can Sink MSTR’s Bitcoin 
Bet, CryptoQuant CEO Says As of November 22, the largest positions include 
roughly $1 billion in Dec 26 $85k puts, $950 million in $140k calls, and $720 
million in $200k calls—more upside than downside exposure overall. Similarly, 
the largest IBIT options are “more calls than puts, and the range of strikes 
are more OTM than the puts.” Park’s broader thesis is that volatility itself 
may again become Bitcoin’s catalyst. He draws parallels to February–March 
2024, when sustained ETF inflows and a steady vol bid preceded a dramatic 
melt-up. “Wall Street needs high volatility for Bitcoin to be interesting,” he 
writes, noting that institutional desks chase trend P&amp;L into year-end, and 
“volatility is a reflexive machine.” Whether that machine is restarting 
remains uncertain. Park concludes that if spot continues to fall while IV 
climbs, “the case strengthens that a sharp upside reversal could materialize.” 
But if vol stalls or slips as price declines—“classic sticky-delta 
behavior”—then the drawdown may harden into “the early contours of a potential 
bear trend.” In essence, Park’s message is that Bitcoin’s most revealing 
signal isn’t price but structure. After two years of ETF-driven calm, 
volatility is moving again—and in Bitcoin’s history, when vol wakes up, price 
rarely stays still for long. At press time, BTC traded at $85,912. Featured 
image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

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