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Bitcoin remains trapped in a tight consolidation range that began over two 
weeks ago, fueling expectations of an imminent breakout or breakdown. The lack 
of decisive movement has created a state of market indecision, with neither 
bulls nor bears taking full control. Price continues to hover between key 
support and resistance levels, showing no strong signs of accumulation or 
distribution. Related Reading: Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Begin Distribution: 
Mirroring Fall 2024 Cycle According to new data from CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin 
Heat Macro Phase—a metric that reflects the overall temperature of the 
market—currently sits at a neutral level. This indicates that market 
conditions are balanced, with no clear dominance from buyers or sellers. 
Profit-taking remains moderate, ETF inflows have slowed, and long-term holder 
activity is stable, all of which support the view that the market is in a 
wait-and-see mode. The current structure suggests that a major move is likely 
approaching. With volatility compressed and the market treading water, traders 
and investors are closely watching for a signal that will define the next leg. 
Whether Bitcoin breaks out toward new highs or rolls over into a correction, 
the coming days will be crucial in shaping the short-term trend and broader 
sentiment across the crypto landscape. Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase Signals 
Neutral Market Top analyst Axel Adler recently shared insights into the 
Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase—a metric that condenses several key market indicators 
into a single scalar value, offering a simplified yet powerful view of where 
Bitcoin stands in its broader macro cycle. The metric combines data points 
such as overvaluation assessments, profit-taking activity, long-term holder 
(LTH) selling pressure, and ETF inflows to gauge whether the market is 
overheated or entering a favorable accumulation zone. When the Heat Macro 
Phase reaches high values near 50%, it typically signals that these components 
are at their upper historical bounds—suggesting an overheated market that may 
be nearing a distribution phase or a correction. Conversely, readings closer 
to 30% reflect cooler market conditions: lower profit-taking, modest ETF 
activity, and minimal LTH selling. These scenarios often indicate that the 
market is undervalued and ripe for accumulation. Currently, the Bitcoin Heat 
Macro Phase sits at 44%, putting it squarely in the neutral zone. Adler 
explains that this level reflects a balanced market environment—neither 
overbought nor undervalued. There’s no clear dominance by bulls or bears. 
Profit-taking is beginning to accelerate, but it hasn’t reached a level that 
would suggest a broader exit is underway. This mid-range reading aligns with 
Bitcoin’s recent price action, which has remained in a tight consolidation for 
over two weeks. As the metric hovers in neutral territory, it reinforces the 
idea that the next significant move—whether upward toward new highs or 
downward in a correction—will depend entirely on upcoming price behavior. For 
now, the Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase acts as a market barometer, signaling 
patience as investors wait for the next breakout or breakdown to confirm 
direction. Related Reading: Bitcoin Demand Builds at $117K: Cost Basis 
Distribution Defines Key Support Level BTC Price Action Details: Tight 
Consolidation Bitcoin continues to consolidate between well-defined support 
and resistance levels, currently trading at $118,269.81 on the 12-hour chart. 
The price action has remained confined within a horizontal range, with upper 
resistance at $122,077 and strong support at $115,724. This range has 
persisted for over two weeks, reflecting a phase of indecision where neither 
bulls nor bears have asserted dominance. The 50, 100, and 200 SMAs—located at 
$116,342, $111,334, and $106,668, respectively—are all trending upward, 
suggesting that the broader structure remains bullish. BTC is currently 
trading above all key moving averages, which are acting as dynamic support. 
However, volume has decreased significantly, indicating a lack of conviction 
from both sides of the market. Related Reading: Abraxas Capital Faces $100M 
Unrealized Loss On $800M Crypto Short Positions – Details The tightening 
structure suggests that a breakout is approaching. If buyers manage to push 
BTC above $122K with strong volume, the next leg higher toward new all-time 
highs could follow. On the other hand, a breakdown below $115K would 
invalidate the current setup and open the door to a deeper correction. 
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase Signals Market Sits Between Accumulation And Distribution

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