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A closely watched technical analyst says the outlook for altcoins will remain 
precarious until Bitcoin breaks through a well-defined ceiling between 
$120,000 and $123,000, arguing that the weekly chart still commands caution 
while momentum lags. Why Altcoins Are Still In The Danger Zone Kevin 
(@Kev_Capital_TA) framed the current setup bluntly: “This weekly BTC chart 
remains the most important chart out there for us to examine. While below the 
120–123K zone and the weekly downtrending resistance on the weekly RSI I have 
to remain cautious.” He added that he would be “the most bullish person on the 
timeline” once those levels are cleared, but “until then we treat it for what 
it is and that is major resistance.” Kevin’s read ties the altcoin path 
directly to Bitcoin’s ability to punch higher. In a follow-up post, he warned 
that sentiment had flipped at precisely the wrong places: “Most of the #Crypto 
timeline got max bullish at 4 year historical resistance and was max bearish 
at major support back in April and even June.” Related Reading: Bitcoin 
Correlation To Altcoins Is Collapsing: A Warning Sign? The implication, he 
suggested, is to avoid chasing optimism under resistance and to “air on the 
side of caution while #BTC and Total 2/#ETH remain under these major levels.” 
By referencing Total2—the market capitalization of crypto excluding 
Bitcoin—and Ethereum, Kevin effectively argued that the broader risk-on 
impulse for altcoins is unlikely to sustain without a decisive Bitcoin 
breakout. Macro conditions are a swing factor in his framework, but not yet a 
catalyst. “The July FOMC was always going to be lack luster with not much 
stake,” he wrote, noting that two more rounds of data arrive before the 
September meeting and that “projections are roughly 50/50.” He pointed traders 
to Core PCE as the next waypoint, while reiterating that he’ll “be the most 
bullish” only if price and momentum confirm above the highlighted band. Until 
then, he plans to “manage risk properly and sit back and watch the show 
unfold.” Related Reading: Ethereum Open Interest Explodes To $28 
Billion—Altcoin Rotation Begins: QCP Market structure and volatility may force 
the timeline. “#BTC getting ready to make a move soon after volatility has 
dropped off a cliff over the last week,” Kevin observed, underscoring that 
compressed ranges typically precede directional expansion. In his view, that 
expansion must come with a break of both price resistance and the 
“downtrending resistance on the weekly RSI” to unlock the stronger bullish 
case. Without that confluence, he sees the set-up as a classic trap for 
altcoins, which historically underperform when Bitcoin is capped and dominance 
grinds higher within ranges. Kevin’s stance, delivered across posts on July 
30–31, amounts to conditional optimism: the structural bull case for the asset 
class remains intact only if Bitcoin proves it by clearing the 
$120,000–$123,000 zone and reversing its weekly momentum profile. “Just be 
careful who you follow folks,” he cautioned. “There is some good ones but a 
lot of bad ones.” For now, he remains explicitly cautious on altcoins while 
Bitcoin and the major breadth gauges sit beneath those levels, with the next 
decisive tests likely to be driven by the data cadence into September and a 
volatility breakout that finally chooses a side. At press time, the total 
altcoin market cap (TOTAL2) stood at $1.48 trillion. Featured image created 
with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Altcoins Stay In Danger Zone Until Bitcoin Clears This Level: Analyst

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