Bitcoin closed the week of June 5 with a nearly 20% decline — its sharpest 
single-week drop since the FTX collapse in November 2022 — but on-chain 
analyst Ali Martinez is pushing back against the prevailing fear, arguing in a 
technical post on X that the market is approaching a major macro accumulation 
cycle rather than the beginning of a deeper structural breakdown. Related 
Reading: The Bitcoin Rally Has A Problem: Demand Is Drying Up Martinez&#8217;s case 
rests on a convergence of on-chain metrics that have historically accompanied 
market bottoms rather than preceded further selling. Bitcoin&#8217;s decline to 
$59,000 — its lowest level since 2024 — flushed out what he describes as 
&#8220;overleveraged premiums&#8221; across the board, per his X post. That kind of forced 
deleveraging, he argues, is typically what creates the conditions for a 
genuine bottom rather than a temporary bounce. BTC&#8217;s price trends to the 
downside on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview The Bitcoin Metrics 
Behind The Call Two data points sit at the center of Martinez&#8217;s analysis. The 
first is long-term holder behavior. During the recent downswing, long-term 
investors distributed more than $3.25 billion in spot Bitcoin, temporarily 
pushing exchange reserves higher and increasing potential short-term selling 
pressure. That distribution, Martinez notes, is consistent with what has 
historically marked the final phase of supply absorption before accumulation 
begins. The second is supply held at a loss. Bitcoin&#8217;s drop to $59,000 pushed 
more than 10.46 million BTC into an underwater position. According to 
Martinez&#8217;s post, every previous instance where the supply-in-loss metric 
crossed the 10 million threshold has accurately timed macro bottoms in prior 
cycles — a signal he considers one of the most reliable indicators available. 
Bitcoin $BTC market bottom is closer than you think. Here’s where I’m planning 
to buy. https://t.co/DrI4OJXnL7 pic.twitter.com/j3YQNzw02G — Ali Charts 
(@alicharts) June 10, 2026 Where The Bottom Could Land Rather than calling a 
specific price floor, Martinez identified two accumulation zones based on MVRV 
band analysis — the ratio of Bitcoin&#8217;s market value to its realized value. The 
most reliable accumulation windows historically appear when MVRV settles 
between the 1.0 and 0.8 bands, which currently correspond to approximately 
$53,900 and $43,150, per his analysis. He is also tracking three key moving 
averages as structural reference points: the 200-week simple moving average at 
$62,800, the 300-week at $55,000, and the 400-week at $42,500. Fellow analyst 
Benjamin Cowen separately echoed the assessment, telling his audience that 
investor psychology is approaching the territory historically associated with 
major cycle bottoms — a phase he estimates could extend through Q3 and 
potentially into October. Related Reading: XRP Being Suppressed? Researcher 
Reveals Why The Token Isn’t Soaring As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at 
around $63,000, recovering from the $59,000 lows as the market processes 
whether the worst week since FTX marked a capitulation bottom or simply the 
latest step in a longer correction. Cover image from Grok, BTCUD chart from 
Tradingview

Bitcoin closed the week of June 5 with a nearly 20% decline — its sharpest single-week drop since the FTX collapse in November 2022 — but on-chain analyst Ali Martinez is pushing back against the prevailing fear, arguing in a technical post on X that the market is approaching a major macro accumulation cycle rather &#8230;

Every Time This Bitcoin Metric Crossed This Level, The Market Bottomed — It Just Happened Again

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Every Time This Bitcoin Metric Crossed This Level, The Market Bottomed — It Just Happened Again

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