Veteran crypto analyst Bob Loukas says Bitcoin has entered the final stage of 
its current four-year cycle, but warned that the market may still need another 
leg lower before a durable cycle bottom is in place. In his latest “4-Year 
Journey” update, published on June 4, Loukas framed Bitcoin’s recent retest of 
its February lows as a largely expected development rather than a break from 
historical cycle behavior. He argued that Bitcoin’s rebound into May, when 
price approached the low-$80,000 range after a decline toward $60,000 in 
February, looked like a countertrend move inside a broader bear-market 
structure. “A cycle very rarely, and I mean less than 10%, probably more like 
5%, will end very early and also on the first significant decline from the 
high,” Loukas said. “There’s always a retest. There’s generally always a lower 
low, at least one lower low, if not a second lower low.” Loukas said Bitcoin 
peaked in October and later broke below its 10-month moving average, which he 
treats as confirmation that the prior cycle advance had ended. The subsequent 
decline into February, he said, was followed by a natural relief rally that 
pulled in bulls expecting a rapid continuation toward the prior highs. That 
rally stalled near $83,000, close to the $85,000 area he had expected, before 
Bitcoin reversed and dropped roughly 25% back toward the February lows. Loukas 
Begins Reaccumulating Bitcoin Despite maintaining that Bitcoin may not have 
completed its cycle low, Loukas said his model portfolio has made its first 
buy action in three and a half years. The portfolio added 10 BTC at the 
$65,000 level, bringing its allocation to roughly 58% Bitcoin and 41% cash. He 
stressed that the move was not a call that the bottom is already in, but 
rather an attempt to begin reaccumulating at more favorable long-term levels. 
Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Most Important Metric Flashes Warning As Bulls 
Fight To Hold $60K The key level now, according to Loukas, is $53,000. He said 
that if Bitcoin reaches that area, the model portfolio would use its remaining 
cash to return to a full Bitcoin allocation. The level matters because it 
roughly corresponds to the midpoint of the broader four-year cycle structure. 
“Currently, what I’m thinking is the best strategy, and this is always subject 
to change, is that at the $53,000 level, all cash that remains to buy the 
remaining Bitcoin and get back to a 100% allocation,” Loukas said. “At the 
$53,000 level, we’re tagging the midpoint of the entire four-year cycle.” He 
acknowledged that $53,000 may appear severe, but argued it is not extreme in 
Bitcoin terms. From the current area, he said, such a move would be only 
around another 15% lower, while Bitcoin had already fallen about $20,000 in 
the prior two to three weeks. He also noted that past bear markets produced 
much larger drawdowns, including a 77% peak-to-trough decline in the 2021–2022 
cycle, compared with the current drawdown of roughly 51% to 52%. Related 
Reading: Bitcoin’s Great Wealth Transfer May Fuel Next Rally, Says CryptoQuant 
CEO Loukas said a 65% to 70% drawdown would not be a prediction, but 
“shouldn’t become a surprise” given Bitcoin’s historical volatility. A move to 
$53,000, by his estimate, would amount to a roughly 57% decline from the cycle 
high. Final Cycle Window Opens Loukas did allow for a more bullish scenario. 
He said the current retest creates the first credible possibility of a shorter 
four-year cycle low, potentially forming as a double bottom before a base into 
late summer and a later push above the May highs. He assigned that outcome a 
relatively low probability of around 25%. His base case remains that Bitcoin’s 
cycle low should form closer to the traditional window around October or 
November, with December also possible. Loukas said Bitcoin is now in month 43 
of the cycle, entering the broad zone in which four-year lows typically emerge 
around the 47- to 48-month average. “The window has been hit,” Loukas said. 
“The four-year cycle now is getting close or getting towards an end. But as I 
mentioned before, this is not any different to prior cycles.” For the near 
term, Loukas said Bitcoin is oversold enough to bounce, possibly toward the 
10-week moving average around $73,000, before resuming lower. He also argued 
that Bitcoin should not trade back above the May high near $83,000 to $85,000 
over the next several months unless a new cycle has already begun. At press 
time, BTC traded at $62,247. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from 
TradingView.com

Veteran crypto analyst Bob Loukas says Bitcoin has entered the final stage of its current four-year cycle, but warned that the market may still need another leg lower before a durable cycle bottom is in place. In his latest “4-Year Journey” update, published on June 4, Loukas framed Bitcoin’s recent retest of its February lows &#8230;

Veteran Analyst Eyes $53,000 Bitcoin As Final Cycle Stage Begins

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digital asset markets. The proposal has attracted support from congressional 
leaders, industry organizations, consumer-focused groups, national security 
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Veteran Analyst Eyes $53,000 Bitcoin As Final Cycle Stage Begins

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