CoinShares has laid out a five-year valuation framework for Ethereum that puts 
ETH at $14,135 by 2031 in its bull case, arguing that the asset’s long-term 
value now depends less on base-layer fees and more on its role as money, 
collateral and settlement infrastructure across the Ethereum economy. How High 
And Low Could Ethereum Go By 2031? The report, written by Luke Nolan, 
CoinShares’ senior research associate for Ethereum, frames ETH through a sum- 
of-parts model combining a cash-flow valuation, a monetary premium valuation 
and an additional network/speculative overlay. The headline outputs are wide: 
a bear case of roughly $1,443 by 2031, a base case of $4,935 and a bull case 
of $14,135, implying annualized returns of -9%, 16% and 43%, respectively, 
from current spot levels. Ethereum is getting harder to value. After Dencun, 
fees collapsed, but network usage kept growing. Our latest research by Luke 
Nolan (@eazygambit) introduces a 5-year sum-of-parts framework for ETH, 
combining cash flows, monetary premium, and network effects. Base case: 
~$4,935… pic.twitter.com/dd938gknAR — CoinShares (@CoinSharesCo) June 2, 2026 
The central premise is that Ethereum has become harder to value after Dencun. 
CoinShares notes that the upgrade moved execution activity away from the base 
layer and toward layer-2 networks, pushing user costs down and throughput 
higher, but also sharply reducing the fee revenue that had previously 
supported ETH’s “ultrasound money” narrative. Weekly fees that peaked above 
$200 million in early 2024 now run closer to $10 million, even as monthly 
active users have roughly doubled over the same period. “Ether is not a tech 
stock and it is not digital gold,” the report states. “It is the native asset 
of a permissionless platform on which builders can deploy essentially 
anything, drawing on decentralised security, leading liquidity, and global 
access. Within that ecosystem, ether also functions as money and as 
collateral.” Related Reading: Ethereum Coinbase Premium Hits Lowest Level 
Since February – Traders Are Watching That distinction drives the structure of 
the model. CoinShares’ first framework treats Ethereum like a business selling 
blockspace, projecting fee revenue across DEX trading, stablecoin transfers, 
DeFi activity, blob transactions, ETH transfers, real-world asset settlement, 
staking operations and a residual “other” category. In that framework, the 
contribution to ETH’s 2031 price is modest: $25 in the bear case, $385 in the 
base case and $2,055 in the bull case. Ethereum’s Future Depends On A Monetary 
Premium The second framework carries much more weight. It treats ETH as the 
monetary and collateral base of the Ethereum ecosystem, modeling demand from 
staking, DeFi collateral, layer-2 reserves, ETF inflows, corporate treasury 
allocations and store-of-value buying. CoinShares says this component produces 
a 2031 price contribution of $1,774 in the bear case, $3,960 in the base case 
and $10,065 in the bull case. Across the report, the bull case is deliberately 
demanding. It assumes Ethereum’s structural demand sources compound at 
elevated levels, rather than merely stabilize. CoinShares models fee revenue 
reaching $5.7 billion by 2031, supported by DEX volumes growing at a 25% CAGR 
and Ethereum L1 market share expanding to 35%. Stablecoin supply, in this 
scenario, reaches $2.8 trillion at a 50% CAGR, while tokenized real-world 
assets scale to $420 billion on Ethereum specifically. ETF flows are also a 
major variable. In the bull case, CoinShares assumes annual ETF flows reach 
$40 billion by 2031, while corporate buying rises to $25 billion and store-of- 
value demand grows meaningfully as the asset class matures. A 3x regime 
multiplier is then applied to buying pressure, reflecting a market environment 
with fewer willing sellers and stronger price discovery. Related Reading: The 
Last Time Ethereum Did This Against Bitcoin, It Exploded Above $4,000 “The 
bull case requires the six demand catalysts identified in section 4 to 
compound at high levels, with Ethereum increasing its market share over time 
as opposed to maintaining it,” CoinShares wrote. “One might consider this 
scenario an ‘everything has worked out perfectly and more’ scenario.” The base 
case is more restrained, but still constructive. It assumes Ethereum remains 
the dominant smart contract blockchain, DEX volumes grow at a 17% CAGR, L1 DEX 
share holds at 20%, stablecoin supply on Ethereum reaches around $450 billion 
by 2031 and DeFi TVL compounds at 25%. That path gives ETH a $4,935 implied 
price by 2031, or roughly 110% upside over five years. CoinShares says the 
greatest probability lies somewhere between the base and bull cases. The 
report argues Ethereum does not need to win every category to clear the base- 
case target, but it does need to hold DEX share, maintain its stablecoin 
position, deliver scaling upgrades such as Glamsterdam, and see ETH ETF flows 
improve toward bitcoin-adjusted levels. The key risk is that Ethereum’s post- 
Dencun economics remain unresolved. CoinShares explicitly flags weak fee 
revenue, uncertain blob mechanics, competitive pressure from alternative 
layer-1s, regulatory friction, monetary policy changes and delayed scaling 
milestones as variables that could force the model to be revisited. At press 
time, ETH traded at $1,870. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from 
TradingView.com

CoinShares has laid out a five-year valuation framework for Ethereum that puts ETH at $14,135 by 2031 in its bull case, arguing that the asset’s long-term value now depends less on base-layer fees and more on its role as money, collateral and settlement infrastructure across the Ethereum economy. How High And Low Could Ethereum Go &#8230;

CoinShares Bull Case Sees Ethereum Hitting $14,135 By 2031

Bitcoin fell below $70K, down 45% from its high, with extreme fear and record 
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Bitcoin fell below $70K, down 45% from its high, with extreme fear and record ETF outflows. Is the 2026 crypto bull market over?

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$1.8 billion in liquidations […]
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Newlimit, the longevity biotech co-founded by Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, 
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CoinShares Bull Case Sees Ethereum Hitting $14,135 By 2031

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