A warning from Bitcoin’s weekly chart is showing a familiar bear market 
structure beginning to take shape. According to technical analysis of the 
weekly chart, Bitcoin has already moved through a topside distribution phase 
and a range phase beneath it, and the current price action is now forming a 
redistribution zone. The concern is that a similar setup appeared after the 
2021 peak before Bitcoin went through a much deeper decline. The last time 
this setup appeared, it erased nearly 80% of Bitcoin&#8217;s value in under a year. 
Bitcoin Chart Following The 2021 Breakdown Structure The analysis compares 
Bitcoin’s current weekly chart with the structure that developed during the 
2021 to 2022 bear market. In that previous cycle, Bitcoin first created a 
distribution zone near the top. The price then entered a range phase below 
that high, creating the appearance of stabilization before the market rolled 
into a redistribution area. Related Reading: Ripple CEO Reveals What It Would 
Mean For XRP Holders If The Company Went Public The first stage in 2021, which 
was a Distribution Phase, occurred as Bitcoin reached its then-peak near 
$69,000. In the current cycle, the same pattern materialized around the 
$108,000 to $126,000 zone, forming a wide but delineated top. The second stage 
was a Range Phase, which is a minor consolidation band directly beneath the 
distribution ceiling where price stabilized before the next move. The third 
stage, and the one that might be forming right now, is Redistribution. This is 
the structure that immediately preceded the 2021 crash. It is a secondary 
range, lower than the first, where sellers reassert control before a decisive 
breakdown. In 2021, the conclusion of this redistribution phase was the last 
exit point before the Bitcoin price fell 78% over the following eight months. 
Bitcoin Weekly Price Chart. Source: @degargoyle On X Is This A Sell Signal? 
The question now is whether this is a sell signal, but the chart does not give 
a simple answer. What it does show is a warning against assuming that the 
recent bounce above $80,000 is the beginning of a run to a new all-time high. 
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $79,800. The redistribution 
phase, if confirmed, does not guarantee a crash of 78% or any fixed magnitude. 
But a repeat of a 78% crash from current price levels will see the Bitcoin 
price falling below $25,000. Related Reading: XRP’s Current Predicament Is 
Only Temporary; These Factors Will Drive It To $18 However, it is also 
important to note that Bitcoin&#8217;s fundamentals and structural environment in 
2026 bear little resemblance to the one that existed when the last crash took 
hold. When Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025, the 
rally had been due to strong ETF inflows and favorable regulatory conditions, 
institutional pillars that did not exist four years ago. Market sentiment is 
back to neutral, and the more balanced interpretation is that Bitcoin is now 
in a confirmation zone. A strong weekly claim above $84,000 would weaken the 
sell signal and suggest that buyers are in full control. Featured image 
created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Is It Time To Sell? Bitcoin Price Enters Redistribution Phase That Previously Led To A 78% Crash

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Is It Time To Sell? Bitcoin Price Enters Redistribution Phase That Previously Led To A 78% Crash

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