Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin’s bull market has already started, arguing that a 
new wave of dollar and yuan liquidity tied to AI spending, wartime policy and 
infrastructure rearmament could push BTC back to $126,000. In his May 12 
essay, “The Butterfly Touch,” the BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom chief 
investment officer framed crypto’s next leg higher as a macro liquidity trade 
rather than a narrow digital-asset story. His central claim is that 
governments and banks in the US and China are being pushed toward looser 
credit conditions by three overlapping forces: the AI arms race, military 
escalation, and a global shift away from just-in-time supply chains. “The bull 
market began in earnest when the US attacked Iran on February 28th,” Hayes 
wrote, tying Bitcoin’s recent outperformance to what he sees as the start of a 
new political regime for money creation. Hayes Points To AI, War And Fiat 
Expansion Hayes argued that AI infrastructure spending has become a national- 
security priority in both Washington and Beijing. In his view, that makes 
monetary restraint politically difficult, because the US and China both see 
machine intelligence as strategically decisive. Related Reading: Bitcoin 
Flashes Signal With 186% Average One-Year Return He said the AI buildout is 
already moving beyond the cash flows of large technology companies and into 
the credit channel. That shift matters for crypto, Hayes argued, because banks 
and central banks will be pressured to support capital expenditure for data 
centers, electricity generation and AI infrastructure. “But in the here and 
now, dollar and yuan liquidity will continue to rise. And Bitcoin and crypto 
will benefit,” Hayes wrote. The essay leans heavily on the idea that AI 
investment is structurally inflationary and potentially self-reinforcing. 
Hayes invoked Jevons Paradox, arguing that cheaper intelligence will increase 
total compute consumption, and the “Red Queen Effect,” under which companies 
must keep spending because rival model improvements can quickly depreciate 
previous investment. In Hayes’ reading, the cycle ends only when markets 
reject a major AI financing event or when political rhetoric in the 2028 US 
presidential race turns sharply against AI-driven inflation. Until then, he 
expects credit to keep expanding. Bitcoin Target: $126,000 Hayes said Bitcoin 
bottomed earlier this year at $60,000 and argued that a return to $126,000 is 
now “a foregone conclusion.” He also identified $90,000 as a key level where 
he expects the rally to intensify, claiming that call over-writers could be 
forced to cover once the strike is breached. “I have no idea how high Bitcoin 
can go,” he wrote, adding that Maelstrom would take its portfolio to “maximum 
risk” unless conditions change materially. Related Reading: Bitcoin Exits 
‘Panic Zone,’ But Capital Inflows Remain Weak His thesis is not limited to AI. 
Hayes also argued that the US-Iran conflict and disruptions to commodity flows 
could push governments outside the US to rethink their dependence on dollar 
financial assets. According to the essay, countries that previously stored 
surpluses in Treasuries or US equities may instead redirect capital toward 
defense, energy, pipelines, food reserves and other physical infrastructure. 
That shift, he argued, would leave US policymakers with an incentive to keep 
financial conditions easier than they otherwise would be. Hayes pointed to 
possible dollar swap lines and looser bank capital rules as tools that could 
offset foreign selling of dollar assets without forcing an abrupt market 
repricing. Hayes closed the essay with a more explicit risk-on message for 
crypto markets. He said it is “time to shitcoin,” naming Hyperliquid’s HYPE 
and Zcash’s ZEC as already-large positions, while identifying NEAR as his next 
preferred trade. The NEAR thesis, he said, will be expanded in his next essay 
and will focus on the privacy narrative combined with Near intents. Hayes 
argued that this could create “a positive cash flow situation for the 
protocol” and potentially reverse the token’s weak long-term price 
performance. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $80,680. Featured image created 
with DALL.E. chart from TradingView.com

Arthur Hayes Says The Bitcoin Bull Market Has Begun: $126,000 Is Next

The summit could redefine US-China tech relations, potentially boosting crypto 
adoption and investment if digital assets are prioritized.
The post Donald Trump to visit China with 16 CEOs including Elon Musk and Tim 
Cook appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

Donald Trump to visit China with 16 CEOs including Elon Musk and Tim Cook

Hayes said military spending and the prioritization of AI infrastructure over 
US Treasurys and equities will lead to further fiat printing and benefit 
crypto.

Iran war, AI spending could push Bitcoin back to $126K this year: Hayes

A leaked list shows Senate Banking Committee members have filed more than 100 
amendments to a crypto bill, highlighting the issues likely to be debated at a 
markup on Thursday.

Senators file over 100 amendments to crypto bill ahead of markup

XRP price started a recovery wave above $1.4250 and $1.4320. The price is now 
consolidating and might aim for a fresh move if it clears $1.4620. XRP price 
started a recovery wave above the $1.4320 zone. The price is now trading above 
$1.4350 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a bearish trend 
line forming with resistance at 1.4620 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair 
(data source from Kraken). The pair could continue to move up if it settles 
above $1.4880. XRP Price Holds Support XRP price remained supported above 
$1.4180 and started a recovery wave, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price was 
able to climb above $1.4250 and $1.4320 to enter a short-term positive zone. 
There was also a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward 
move from the $1.4876 swing high to the $1.4185 swing low. However, the bears 
could be active near the $1.4550 zone. Besides, there is a bearish trend line 
forming with resistance at 1.4620 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair. The 
price is now trading above $1.4350 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. 
If there is a fresh upward move, the price might face resistance near the 
$1.4550 level. The first major resistance is near the $1.4610 level or the 
61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1.4876 swing high 
to the $1.4185 swing low. A close above $1.4610 could send the price to 
$1.480. The next hurdle sits at $1.4880. A clear move above the $1.4880 
resistance might send the price toward the $1.50 resistance. Any more gains 
might send the price toward the $1.520 resistance. Another Drop? If XRP fails 
to clear the $1.4620 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Initial 
support on the downside is near the $1.440 level. The next major support is 
near the $1.4320 level. If there is a downside break and a close below the 
$1.4320 level, the price might continue to decline toward $1.4180. The next 
major support sits near the $1.4050 zone, below which the price could continue 
lower toward $1.3880. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for XRP/USD 
is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) 
– The RSI for XRP/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – 
$1.4320 and $1.4180. Major Resistance Levels – $1.4550 and $1.4620.

XRP Price Finds Support Again, Though Resistance Threatens Rally Attempt

The misinterpretation of Fink&#8217;s comments highlights the challenges of 
investing in unstable economies and the importance of accurate information.
The post BlackRock CEO Larry Fink&#8217;s alleged bullishness on Venezuela doesn&#8217;t 
hold up to scrutiny appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

Arthur Hayes Says The Bitcoin Bull Market Has Begun: $126,000 Is Next

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