The Bitcoin recovery above $80,000 has brought some sort of confidence back 
into the crypto market, but a crypto expert is warning that the timing of the 
rebound may be more dangerous than it looks. As noted by the expert, who goes 
by the name Crypto Patel on X, Bitcoin has now entered the same part of the 
four-year cycle that previously produced some of its deepest quarterly 
breakdowns. Bitcoin Is Repeating A Mid-Term Year Pattern Bitcoin has broken 
above the $80,000 mark and this has led to Coinmarketcap&#8217;s fear and greed 
index pushing into high neutral numbers. This move has been helped by stronger 
ETF inflows in April and May, but Bitcoin is still 35.5% below its October 
2025 peak. All these factors say Bitcoin&#8217;s price action in May is starting 
with a positive note. However, according to observations noted by Crypto Patel 
on the social media platform X, mid-term years have been accompanied by 
Bitcoin price crashes, and this has repeated across multiple cycles. Related 
Reading: Ex-Ripple Exec Breaks Down The XRP To $10,000 Predictions, Is It 
Possible? The expert pointed to previous price actions in May in previous 
years as examples of this mid-term year weakness. His chart, published 
alongside the post, pointed to four distinct bear markets, each annotated with 
the peak-to-trough decline. In 2014, Bitcoin peaked in May and subsequently 
fell 76.04%. In 2018, another May peak preceded a 68.35% collapse. In 2022, 
the same seasonal window in May led to a 70.06% price crash. The pattern is 
precise: three midterm years, three May peaks, and three catastrophic 
declines. &#8220;Three for three,&#8221; Crypto Patel wrote. &#8220;Not coincidence. Cycle 
mechanics.&#8221; The chart then projects a similar structure into 2026, which is a 
mid-term year, showing another possible 66.54% drop from the current price. 
Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @CryptoPatel On X The Relief Rally Trap According 
to this outlook, the Bitcoin price is now at an identical inflection point, 
right where previous cycles began their most damaging legs down. Applying the 
average drawdown structure from prior mid-term cycles to the current price 
action, Crypto Patel projected a bottom zone anywhere between $50,000 and 
$30,000. Related Reading: Does The Ethereum 300% Boost In Capacity Mean Price 
Can Rise 3x To $6,000? The difficult part of Patel’s outlook is that Bitcoin’s 
current market structure is not completely bearish. At the time of writing, 
Bitcoin is trading at $81,530 and is now close to breaking above its 200-day 
EMA around $83,000. Bitcoin spent the last eight weeks consolidating in the 
$60,000 to $72,000 range before its recent recovery. That recovery has been 
interpreted by much of the market as confirmation that the bottom is 
established and the worst is over. However, the crypto expert&#8217;s post directly 
addresses this sentiment as a possible trap. &#8220;The dip is in. Wrong. That&#8217;s the 
trap,&#8221; he said. Several analysts have also noted that the four-year halving 
cycle suggests that the current bear market may extend through Q4 before 
forming a durable bottom. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from 
Tradingview.com

Bitcoin Has Entered Its ‘Most Dangerous Quarter,’ And This Expert Is Warning Investors

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Bitcoin Has Entered Its ‘Most Dangerous Quarter,’ And This Expert Is Warning Investors

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