Bitcoin carved a path toward $82,000, but derivatives metrics need another 
push from bulls to sustain the rally.

Bitcoin holds $81K amid flat derivatives markets: Is the rally sustainable?

Bitcoin price started a fresh increase and cleared the $80,800 zone. BTC is 
consolidating and might aim for more gains above the $81,500 level. Bitcoin 
managed to stay above $80,000 and started a fresh increase. The price is 
trading above $80,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a 
bullish trend line forming with support at $80,150 on the hourly chart of the 
BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might extend gains if it stays 
above the $80,000 and $79,200 levels. Bitcoin Price Could Extend Gains Bitcoin 
price found support near $78,800 and started a fresh increase. BTC gained pace 
for a move above the $79,200 and $80,000 resistance levels. The bulls even 
pushed the price above $80,800. A high was formed at $81,765, and the price 
started a consolidation phase above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the 
upward move from the $74,940 swing low to the $81,765 high. Bitcoin is now 
trading above $80,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is also 
a bullish trend line forming with support at $80,150 on the hourly chart of 
the BTC/USD pair. If the price remains stable above $80,000, it could attempt 
a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $81,500 level. The first 
key resistance is near the $81,750 level. A close above the $81,750 resistance 
might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise 
and test the $82,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward 
the $83,200 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $84,500. Another 
Drop In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $81,500 resistance zone, it 
could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $80,500 level. The 
first major support is near the $80,150 level. The next support is now near 
the $78,350 zone and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 
$74,940 swing low to the $81,765 high. Any more losses might send the price 
toward the $77,550 support in the near term. The main support now sits at 
$76,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical 
indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. 
Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 
level. Major Support Levels – $80,150, followed by $78,350. Major Resistance 
Levels – $81,500 and $82,000.

Bitcoin Price Keeps $80K Support, Can Bulls Extend Rally Soon?

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Bitcoin’s upside remains tied to macro stability as BTC trades near $81,000. 
Wintermute said strengthening on-chain data and ETF inflows have not yet 
confirmed an independent breakout. Key Takeaways: Bitcoin approached $82,000 
resistance but still lacks confirmation of a sustained breakout. ETF inflows 
reached $2.6 billion, while late outflows signaled weakening demand. Macro 
factors, including […]

Bitcoin’s Bull Case Hinges on Macro Conditions, Wintermute Says

Bitcoin’s latest rally is being driven by a sharp acceleration in 
institutional demand, according to Capriole Investments founder Charles 
Edwards, who says large buyers are now absorbing roughly six times the amount 
of BTC mined each day. The setup has pushed several of Capriole’s long-running 
Bitcoin models back into bullish territory, with Edwards arguing that both on- 
chain and technical conditions now favor a continuation higher. In a May 5 
Substack post titled “Institutions are Guzzling Bitcoin,” Edwards said 
institutional flows have intensified since his previous update, rising to 
around 577% of daily mined supply. Bitcoin, he noted, has gained 12% over the 
same period. “Institutions are slurping up 600%+ of Bitcoin&#8217;s daily mined 
supply. Every time it&#8217;s been this high before, price has shot up over the next 
week. As the chart shows, we’ve typically seen double digit returns from here 
with a couple of weeks in all prior cases.” Based on that historical pattern, 
Edwards said a comparable move would put Bitcoin near $96,000. The argument is 
straightforward: if institutional demand continues to exceed new issuance by 
such a wide margin, available supply tightens quickly, especially in a market 
where long-term holders have already shown less willingness to sell into 
weakness. Capriole Models Turn Bullish Bitcoin From $71,000 Edwards also 
pointed to Capriole’s internal models, including Trend King and Macro Index, 
both of which flipped long around $71,000. Trend King, described by Edwards as 
the firm’s longest-running live trading strategy, is currently leveraged long 
Bitcoin. The model is primarily technical, though it also incorporates 
selected on-chain inputs. Related Reading: Bitcoin Seasonality Flashes Bullish 
May Signal After Two Green Months Macro Index, Capriole’s fundamentals-only 
Bitcoin model, has also moved into what Edwards described as “recovery” mode. 
The model tracks more than 200 on-chain and macro market data points, 
providing an aggregate view of Bitcoin’s fundamental backdrop. Edwards said 
its trends “tend to be sticky,” implying that the signal is less about a 
short-term tactical trade and more about a broader regime shift. Derivatives 
data adds another layer to the bullish case. Capriole’s Bitcoin Perps Heat 
indicator, which tracks relative extremes in perpetual swap markets by 
measuring funding rates and open interest across a four-year normalization 
window, recently showed what Edwards called an “extremely bullish long term 
signal” following excessive shorting. Related Reading: Crypto Shorts Suffer 
$300M Flush As Bitcoin Hits $80,000 That matters because market positioning 
appears to have reset before the breakout. Edwards wrote that “complete 
capitulation on derivatives markets occurred in March/April,” suggesting that 
leverage had been flushed out before Bitcoin’s latest move higher. In that 
framing, the rally is not simply chasing overheated longs; it is emerging 
after a period in which traders were leaning too defensively. SOPR Breakout 
Confirms On-Chain Momentum Spent Output Profit Ratio, or SOPR, is another key 
piece of the thesis. Edwards highlighted that SOPR had spent significant time 
below 1, a zone he described in the previous issue as historically offering 
“great Bitcoin opportunities.” In the latest note, he said the metric has now 
closed back above 1, signaling a return of positive price and on-chain 
momentum. “Bitcoin looks incredibly strong here. It’s also supported by 
relative strength against all markets, having bottomed and outperformed since 
the Iran war started. We see consistent strength across technical and 
fundamental data for Bitcoin today.” The equities backdrop is more mixed, but 
still broadly supportive of risk assets in Edwards’ view. He said Capriole’s 
“quiet strong market” strategy remains risk-on, while collapsing credit 
spreads and a favorable VIX regime are backing the current breakout. The S&amp;P 
500 has also printed a fresh all-time high, with Edwards identifying 7,000 as 
the key weekly level to watch. There are caveats. Edwards flagged weakness in 
the advance-decline line, high oil prices linked to the Iran war, and the 
gold-to-stock ratio as longer-term equity risks. But for now, he framed those 
as warnings rather than a confirmed bearish turn. At press time, Bitcoin 
traded at $81,429. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from 
TradingView.com

Bitcoin holds $81K amid flat derivatives markets: Is the rally sustainable?

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