Bitcoin’s May setup is drawing fresh attention after two consecutive green 
months, with Trader_XO pointing to seasonality data that leaves BTC on the 
edge of a rare three-month streak. The question is whether the historical 
pattern has real market weight this time, or whether the latest geopolitical 
shock has already complicated the signal. Bitcoin Eyes Rare Three-Month 
Winning Streak The Coinglass data shared by Trader_XO shows Bitcoin’s monthly 
returns by year, with 2026 so far marked by a sharp early-year drawdown 
followed by a recovery phase. BTC fell 10.17% in January and another 14.94% in 
February, before turning higher with a 1.81% gain in March and an 11.87% 
advance in April. May is shown up 3.18% so far, keeping the month positive at 
the time of the snapshot. “Bitcoin seasonality, with context,” Trader_XO 
wrote. “May stats: Positive ~60% of the time (8/13 years). Avg return: ~+8%. 
Median return: ~+3%. Only once has BTC had March, April, May all green (2019). 
This year so far: March: +1.81%. April: +11.87%. May opened at 76.3s. Does May 
end up being positive by month end?” The Coinglass table gives the seasonal 
argument some structure. Its visible average row lists May at +7.82%, making 
it one of Bitcoin’s stronger months historically, behind October, November and 
April in the displayed data. The median row shows May at +6.34%, while the 
broader table highlights how uneven the month has been: May delivered outsized 
gains in 2017 and 2019, both above 52%, but also saw deep losses in 2021 and 
2022, at -35.31% and -15.6%. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Tops $80,000 For 
First Time Since January After Trump Announcement That dispersion matters. 
May’s green bias is not the same as a reliable monthly trade. The chart shows 
positive May returns in eight of the past 13 completed years, but the losses, 
when they arrived, were large enough to make context more important than a 
simple seasonal read. That was also the point raised in the replies. 
StrongHedge argued that “context matters alongside data,” noting that in 2019 
the market had “pico bottomed” and was beginning a new uptrend. Trader_XO 
agreed, responding: “Yep — exact same thoughts.” The comparison is important 
because 2019 remains the only year in the dataset where Bitcoin posted gains 
in March, April and May in sequence. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Show Signs 
Of Exhaustion Around $78,000 — What’s Next? For 2026, the market is now 
testing whether the same three-month pattern can repeat after a very different 
start to the year. The rebound from February’s drawdown has been strong enough 
to restore upside momentum, but not clean enough to remove macro and 
geopolitical risk from the equation. That became clear in Monday’s price 
action. Bitcoin climbed above $80,000 for the first time since late January, 
reaching an intraday high around $80,529, after Donald Trump announced 
“Project Freedom,” a US effort tied to the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters reported 
that the US deployed Navy guided-missile destroyers to help escort commercial 
vessels, while AP reported that CENTCOM said two American-flagged merchant 
ships transited the strait with Navy support. The relief move did not hold. 
Later, Iran’s Fars news agency reported that missiles had hit a US warship 
near Jask Island after it ignored Iranian warnings, while US officials denied 
that any Navy vessel had been struck. Bitcoin quickly lost the $80,000 
breakout and slipped back toward the high-$78,000s. At press time, BTC traded 
at $78,755. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin Seasonality Flashes Bullish May Signal After Two Green Months

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A crypto market analyst has shared the key levels to watch as Bitcoin (BTC) 
confirms a key level as support for the first time in months, opening the door 
to a continuation of its April recovery rally. Related Reading: This Signal 
Has Predicted Every Bitcoin Bottom, Here’s What It’s Saying Now Bitcoin EMA 
Reclaim Signals More Upside Potential After closing the week above a crucial 
level, Bitcoin jumped 2.2% to break above the $80,000 resistance for the first 
time since January. The flagship crypto had been trading between $74,000 and 
$79,000 for the past few weeks, failing to reclaim the range’s upper boundary 
despite multiple attempts. On Sunday, BTC closed above the $78,000 mark for 
the second consecutive week, confirming its 21-week Exponential Moving Average 
(EMA) as support. Previously, analyst Rekt Capital highlighted the 21-week and 
50-week EMAs as two key levels for the cryptocurrency’s ongoing rally, 
explaining that these moving averages tend to act as support during bull 
markets and as strong resistance during bear markets. In a Monday analysis, 
the market observer noted that these levels “didn&#8217;t flip into a picture- 
perfect resistance” this time despite losing them as support after its pre- 
bearish crossover at the start of the year. Nonetheless, their divergence 
created a “general supply area” rather than the “general demand area” 
configuration, typically seen during bull markets. Now, “BTC has Weekly Closed 
above the EMA, performed a very volatile retest of it, and Weekly Closed above 
it again.” As a result, Bitcoin is positioned for upside, the analyst 
affirmed, adding that it has the price strength confirmation after last week’s 
close, but it will need continued stability in the absence of a follow-through 
move higher. If trend continuation comes, the analyst suggested that a surge 
deeper into the supply zone is likely, with the 50-week EMA, currently around 
the $86,000-$87,000 area, as the ultimate stop on any upside wick. “Generally, 
though, anything within this supply area is where the price should be 
rejecting and failing to rally higher,” he warned. BTC At Trend Continuation 
Or Rally Ceiling? As Bitcoin attempts to reclaim the $80,000 level, Rekt 
Capital affirmed that the $82,500 region “doesn’t have a defined role.” 
Notably, this crucial horizontal area has served as strong support and marks 
the base of a macro triangle formation that was lost during the February price 
crash. “The first time price reached it, we produced a decent rebound into new 
All Time Highs. The next time the price tagged the same level, we produced a 
much lesser rally, a sign that the support there was already weakening. Now, 
$82,500 doesn’t have a defined role. But we may be defining it as we speak,” 
the analyst stated. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Expansion To $97,000 Is 
Only Being Blocked By One Pesky Retest He explained that a rejection without 
breaking beyond this resistance would make this the price ceiling, forcing a 
retest of BTC’s old All-Time Highs (ATH) area between $69,000 and $74,000, as 
we are just halfway through the bear market. In addition, Bitcoin has not been 
able to reclaim a macro triangle during this part of the cycle, once the price 
breaks down. Rekt Capital pointed out that to invalidate the Four-Year Cycle 
thesis and call the end of the bear market, BTC would need to break back above 
the macro triangle base on the monthly timeframe and above its macro 
downtrend, located above the $96,000 area. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, 
Chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin Seasonality Flashes Bullish May Signal After Two Green Months

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