XRP is repeating technical patterns from its early 2025 rally, pointing to a potential rally toward the $3.75–$4.00 range.

Will XRP repeat its 70% rally? Price nears classic fractal breakout

A thread posted late on 4 August 2025 by Weiss Crypto analyst Juan Villaverde 
has ignited debate about a rarely discussed harbinger of Bitcoin price cycles. 
In a thread on X, the quantitative researcher argued that an “overlooked asset 
class”—one he says almost no-one monitors in a crypto context—consistently 
pivots months before Bitcoin does, offering what he calls “a sneak peek at 
major turning points.” Villaverde’s proprietary back-testing suggests the lag 
is approximately six months, enough lead time, he claims, to anticipate the 
apex of the current bull market in late November. How Gold’s Trendlines Map 
The Bitcoin Price “Many are aware that Bitcoin tends to follow global 
liquidity—with a roughly twelve-week lag,” Weiss Crypto wrote, setting the 
stage for the reveal. “But Juan Villaverde has quietly tracked a different 
early indicator… one that can signal where BTC is headed six months in 
advance.” In a follow-up post he teased, “That little-known indicator? [ … ]. 
Turns out, its price action often leads Bitcoin by several months—providing a 
sneak peek at major turning points.” Related Reading: Top Analyst Says Bitcoin 
Is Trapped: ‘Nothing To Do Until October’ Villaverde’s thesis rests on a data 
series stretching back to the advent of modern crypto markets. He points to 
the trough of December 2018, which, in his reconstruction, was foreshadowed by 
a significant low in the mystery market some weeks earlier. “After analysing 
years of data, Juan spotted a consistent pattern,” Weiss Crypto stated, 
quoting the analyst to the effect that “major lows [there] tend to precede 
major lows in Bitcoin.” The same lead-lag cadence, Villaverde notes, flashed 
red in November 2021 when Bitcoin printed its all-time high even as the 
benchmark asset he tracks refused to break higher—an omen that presaged the 
2022 bear market. The model is not without blemishes. Weiss Crypto 
acknowledged “one exception in recent years—during the Russia–Ukraine 
invasion—where the Bitcoin relationship temporarily inverted due to macro 
chaos.” Yet Villaverde maintains the anomaly reinforces rather than weakens 
his conviction: exogenous geopolitical shocks can distort correlations, but 
once the shock dissipates the historic rhythm reasserts itself. Related 
Reading: Bitcoin Neutral Sentiment Didn’t Last Long: Investors Already Greedy 
Again Where does that leave the market in mid-2025? “According to Juan’s 
analysis,” the firm wrote, “the indicator is pointing to a major high in 
Bitcoin around late November 2025. That aligns perfectly with his Crypto 
Timing Model.” Villaverde cautions that the signal is dynamic, not 
deterministic. If the benchmark asset he watches “rallies above its April 
high,” it would imply “Bitcoin could march higher into 2026.” Conversely, any 
decisive breakdown would “be an early warning that crypto’s bull market may be 
nearing its end after November.” Villaverde insists the relationship he has 
identified is robust because it focuses on magnitude rather than direction 
alone. “It’s not only the turns that matter,” he said in a direct message to 
this outlet, “but the amplitude of those turns.” By quantifying both, he 
argues, the signal captures investor psychology cycling from fear to greed and 
back again. At press time, BTC traded at $114,522. Featured image created with 
DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin Is Secretly Tracking This Market Signal: Weiss Crypto

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