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Bitcoin (BTC) has continued to face resistance below the $120,000 level, with 
price action showing little momentum to push the asset toward a new high. At 
the time of writing, the world’s largest cryptocurrency is trading above 
$118,000, reflecting a slight pullback of around 3.6% from its most recent 
all-time high. With the asset still in a tight range, investors are watching 
whether Bitcoin can establish a breakout or if a price correction is more 
likely in the near term. Meanwhile, recent on-chain analysis has highlighted 
an area of potential concern in Bitcoin’s price history that may point to a 
retest of lower levels before further upward movement. Related Reading: 
Bitcoin Overheating Signals Easing – Is A Second-Half Rally Ahead? Analyst 
Highlights “Unrealized Gap” in Bitcoin’s Price Movement According to data 
shared on CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform, the $111,000–$115,000 range 
remains an untested zone that could see renewed activity in the future, 
despite broader market optimism. CryptoQuant contributor and on-chain analyst 
CryptoMe has identified what he calls a “gap” in Bitcoin’s recent trading 
behavior. The analyst noted that between July 9 and 14, Bitcoin experienced a 
rapid rally from $110,000 to $123,000 without significant trading activity in 
the $111,000–$117,000 range. On-chain data during that period reportedly 
showed limited retail participation, with most buying pressure coming from 
institutional players. “This rapid upward move created a visible gap in the 
UTxO histogram,” CryptoMe explained, adding: Few transactions occurred in that 
range, meaning unrealized outputs were not established. Historically, such 
gaps have often been revisited by the market, filling those levels over time. 
The analyst also mentioned that part of the gap has already been addressed 
with price action touching $115,000–$117,000 in recent sessions, but the lower 
section around $111,000 remains unfilled. Historical Patterns Suggest Possible 
Retest of $111K Drawing from Bitcoin’s 16-year price history, CryptoMe pointed 
out that similar scenarios have occurred before. For instance, in 2024, 
Bitcoin skipped the $70,000–$80,000 range on its way to $110,000 but 
eventually revisited and filled that gap. Related Reading: $141,000 Could Be 
Next Key Bitcoin Resistance If Price Breaks Higher, Report Says Based on these 
recurring patterns, the analyst believes the $111,000 level may see a retest, 
even in a generally bullish environment. “What remains uncertain,” CryptoMe 
said, “is whether this will happen as a direct drop from current levels or 
after a further climb, potentially toward $140,000, followed by a correction.” 
The analyst advises market participants to consider the possibility of a 
pullback when planning their risk exposure and leverage positions, noting: But 
either way, I believe the gap will be filled! So investors should know that, 
even in this bullish environment, a pullback toward 111k is still possible, 
and they should adjust their positions, leverage, and risk levels accordingly. 
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin Bull Run Stumbles: Analysts Predict a Possible $111K Retest Soon

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Bitcoin’s latest push towards $120,000 fizzled into a stall-out that now 
resembles a “failed breakout zone,” according to market analytics firm 
Swissblock. In a July 31 thread, the firm said “momentum has failed to 
ignite,” arguing that realized-profit flows and an overwhelming share of coins 
sitting in profit have turned every bounce into an opportunity for supply to 
meet price. Profit-Taking Cools Bitcoin Rally Swissblock framed the setback as 
a pause rather than a breakdown. “Profit-taking is rising—but not as intense 
as late 2024,” the firm wrote, adding that the effect through July was “enough 
to cap upside and trigger consolidation.” The tone is cooling, not 
capitulatory: “Selling pressure is visible, but not extreme—think cooling, not 
capitulation.” That diagnosis hinges on on-chain readings of realized 
profit—an input that tends to expand into rallies as long-held coins are spent 
into strength—and a market structure in which bids are absorbing supply rather 
than being overwhelmed by it. Related Reading: Bitcoin New Investor Dominance 
Rises – No Signs of Mass Profit-Taking Yet The most striking datapoint in the 
thread is breadth of profitability: “96% of supply is in profit,” Swissblock 
noted, citing Glassnode. That ratio is historically consistent with late-cycle 
euphoria, but it is also mechanically self-limiting; when nearly all holders 
are in the green, latent sell pressure rises because “unrealized gains are 
tempting sellers.” As Swissblock put it, “Strong holders remain. But 
unrealized gains are tempting sellers. Until demand returns, each bounce 
invites supply.” The firm contends the broader trend “is intact—but momentum 
needs a reset.” Beyond on-chain realized flows, the firm’s composite 
fundamentals read neutral with improving liquidity. “BTC fundamentals are 
strong and stable,” Swissblock wrote, pointing to a Bitcoin Fundamentals Index 
reading of 60 (neutral), “Network Growth is cooling,” and “Liquidity is 
recovering.” That mix typically favors range behavior over directional 
surges—“a consolidation-supportive environment,” as the post put it—in which 
Bitcoin “can grind sideways longer—until it’s ready to break with conviction.” 
The implication is that the market’s “failed breakout” risk reflects timing 
rather than trend reversal: positioning and liquidity are not aligned yet for 
a sustained continuation. Related Reading: Weak Bitcoin Treasury Companies 
Will Be Crushed By Bear Market, Insider Warns The cross-asset context is 
equally nuanced. “Altseason is active—but under stress,” Swissblock wrote, 
observing that while “$ETH continues to outperform BTC structurally, holding 
up better in this pullback,” most altcoins are sagging, with “only 5% of top 
100 showing positive impulse.” That thinning rotation underlines the 
selectivity of risk appetite and the fragility of momentum outside of the 
largest names. Historically, that pattern often precedes a decisive move in 
Bitcoin that either recharges the rotation or breaks it. Swissblock’s 
concluding assessment leans cautiously constructive. “Profit-taking is fading 
and selling pressure is being absorbed. BTC is preparing for breakout—but 
momentum needs to align.” Until that alignment arrives, the firm expects a 
grind: bids continue to meet supply from profitable holders, realized profits 
moderate, and liquidity improves in the background. If and when Bitcoin flips 
momentum back to positive, Swissblock argues, the spillover could be forceful: 
“While BTC grinds sideways, watch for the moment it flips—ETH and altcoins 
will likely explode upward when it does.” In short, today’s dip to $115,000 
looks less like an outright rejection than a test of the market’s ability to 
digest profits and reset momentum without damage to the underlying uptrend. 
With 96% of supply in profit and breadth compressed, the next impulse likely 
hinges on whether liquidity and demand can reassert themselves before profit- 
taking reaccelerates. For now, Swissblock’s message is clear: the breakout 
will need to be earned, not assumed. At press time, BTC traded at $115,452. 
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

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