Dogecoin price formed a double bottom pattern, pointing to an eventual rebound as whale accumulation continues. Dogecoin (DOGE) was trading at $0.1700 on July 7, a few points above the year-to-date low of $0.1467. It has dropped by 35% from…

Dogecoin price double bottoms as whale accumulation continues

The liquidity engine that has supported risk assets, including Bitcoin, since 
the beginning of 2025 is now shifting into reverse. According to macro analyst 
Tomas (@TomasOnMarkets), the six-month upswing in Federal Reserve liquidity 
has ended, and a potentially destabilizing wave of debt issuance by the US 
Treasury is about to begin. In a post published on X late Sunday, Tomas 
warned: “ Federal Reserve Liquidity set to fall… The Fed liquidity upswing 
that began on January 1 2025 is now over.” Bitcoin Enters Danger Zone The 
catalyst behind this reversal is the recent $5 trillion debt ceiling increase 
passed by Congress last week. That legislative decision gives the Treasury 
Department the green light to aggressively rebuild its cash balance at the 
Federal Reserve—known as the Treasury General Account (TGA)—which had been 
intentionally drained to inject liquidity into the system during the first 
half of the year. “The US Government had previously been draining the Treasury 
General Account (liquidity injection). But a new debt ceiling agreement was 
reached last week ($5 trillion raise). This means the Government will start to 
flood the market with new debt to ‘refill’ the TGA (liquidity drain),” Tomas 
wrote. He emphasized that the refill target is currently set at $850 billion, 
up from recent levels around $350 billion, implying roughly $500 billion in 
liquidity will be removed from the system in the coming months. Related 
Reading: Bitcoin Investor Sentiment Back To ‘Very Bullish’ — What This Means 
The implications for Bitcoin are stark. Risk assets have historically 
benefited from rising dollar liquidity—particularly in the context of elevated 
ETF inflows, corporate adoption, and a weakening US dollar. But that backdrop 
is now shifting. As Tomas put it, “All else being equal, this TGA rebuild 
process should be bullish for the US dollar.” A strengthening dollar, when 
coupled with falling bank reserves, is generally a bearish environment for 
Bitcoin. The pressure on liquidity won’t necessarily come all at once, but the 
mechanics are clear. Treasury will issue large volumes of new short-term 
debt—primarily T-bills—to finance the TGA refill. This issuance will compete 
with other dollar-denominated assets for funding, draining cash out of banks 
and money markets. Tomas notes that this dynamic could be softened if money 
market funds rotate their cash out of the Fed’s Overnight Reverse Repo 
Facility, which still holds about $214 billion. “It’s possible that Treasury 
Secretary Scott Bessent could lower the target level, meaning less of a 
refill,” he adds. “I’d expect we may see a lot of T-bill issuance, which could 
tempt some of the remaining $214bn left in the Reverse Repo to leave the 
facility (liquidity injection) and lessen any negative impact of the TGA 
refill.” Still, even with some reallocation from RRP, Tomas expects the 
overall effect to reduce reserve balances—bank reserves as a percentage of GDP 
are likely to fall below 10%, he estimates. While this is not as dire as the 
7% level reached in 2019 (which triggered the repo crisis), it represents a 
sharp tightening compared to the first half of this year. “There could be some 
funding stress around the end of September (end-of-quarter),” Tomas cautioned. 
Related Reading: Bitcoin Breakout Is A Trap—Analyst Predicts Pain Before 
$160,000 Surge Bitcoin’s performance has coincided with the exact window Tomas 
outlines as a liquidity upswing. As documented, Bitcoin’s price has closely 
tracked the direction of aggregate G5 central bank balance sheets and the 
level of US bank reserves. When those reserves shrink—especially in the face 
of stronger Treasury issuance and a rebounding dollar—Bitcoin has historically 
struggled to sustain upside momentum. This concern is compounded by Tomas’s 
warning that speculative short positioning against the dollar has reached 
extremes. “Back in January, I was shouting about a fall in the dollar. Now 
everybody and their mothers are bearish on the dollar, and positioning is 
massively short across the board. It’s time for, at the very least, an upward 
correction/consolidation for the US dollar, in my opinion.” Such a reversal in 
the dollar would mark a critical macro headwind for Bitcoin. The 90-day 
rolling correlation between Bitcoin and the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains 
firmly negative. In environments where the dollar strengthens—especially when 
driven by tightening liquidity—Bitcoin has rarely outperformed. The next 
several weeks will be critical. If Treasury proceeds with aggressive issuance 
and market participants demand higher yields, liquidity could tighten faster 
than anticipated. While Tomas does leave open the possibility that Secretary 
Bessent may adjust the TGA target downward, the baseline scenario remains a 
$500 billion net liquidity drain—directly reversing the conditions that 
allowed Bitcoin to surge. At press time, BTC traded at $108,148. Featured 
image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s Liquidity Lifeline Just Got Cut—What You Need To Know

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[…]

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