A sharp drop in BTC inflows to Binance could play a role in Bitcoin possibly rallying to $120,000.

Bitcoin’s next stop could be $120K: BTC analysts explain why

Analysts are bullish on ETH’s long-term prospects and ETF inflows, but futures 
data paints a different picture.

ETH ETF flows impress, but Ether futures data suggest traders exercise caution

Chinese authorities are ramping up efforts to enhance the international status 
of the yuan and reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar, particularly as confidence 
in the dollar wanes. Dollar Decline Aids Yuan China is intensifying efforts to 
elevate the yuan&#8217;s international standing and challenge the U.S. dollar&#8217;s 
global dominance, seizing an opportune moment as international […]

Yuan vs. Greenback: China’s Quiet Campaign for Financial Supremacy

Sina—co-founder of the hedge fund 21st Capital—publicly dismantled a popular 
Bitcoin price model promoted by Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal, calling it a 
textbook case of data illiteracy and overfitting. The model in question draws 
a close correlation between Bitcoin and Global M2—a measure of global money 
supply—by shifting M2 data forward by a set number of weeks, typically 10 to 
12, to supposedly “predict” Bitcoin’s future price moves. Raoul Pal has used 
this chart to argue that macro liquidity conditions drive crypto cycles, and 
that the current market behavior can be forecast using monetary expansion. 
Expert Torches M2-Bitcoin Correlation But Sina, a trained data scientist who 
teaches data analytics at the undergraduate and graduate level, says this 
model collapses under scrutiny. “This is a terrible failure of not 
understanding overfitting,” he said in a June 24 video posted to X. “What I’m 
seeing doesn’t even pass the first month of a first-year data analytics 
course.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Poised For Rally As Geopolitical Tensions 
Ease And Inflation Expectations Fall Sina points out that the apparent 
correlation between Bitcoin and Global M2 only exists because the data has 
been “tortured” to fit historical patterns. “If I’m allowed to play with the 
data and arbitrarily move things around, I can definitely find great matches 
between pockets of data,” he said, warning that this flexibility is exactly 
what allows analysts to create the illusion of predictive accuracy. The 
primary issue, he explained, is that the Global M2 data itself is inherently 
flawed. It’s compiled by multiplying various central banks’ M2 figures by 
exchange rates—mixing fast-reporting economies like the US with countries that 
have data delays of weeks or even months. This creates a misleading impression 
of daily fluctuations in global liquidity. “It seems to be moving on a daily 
basis, but it’s actually mixing frequent and infrequent updates,” Sina said. 
“It’s not a true signal.” More importantly, Sina argues that the model fails 
the moment one zooms out from selective chart slices. While Raoul Pal and 
others have showcased examples of tightly aligned tops and bottoms between 
Bitcoin and Global M2, Sina demonstrated how minor tweaks in lead time or 
scale can yield dramatically different outcomes. “Let’s try a lead of 80 days. 
That doesn’t look good. What about 108? Ah, now the tops align—so let’s zoom 
in again and pretend it works,” he said sarcastically. “This is not modeling. 
This is playing.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Repeats Its 2021 Pattern—Analyst 
Warns Final Crash Still Ahead He highlighted how each adjustment to the 
model—shifting from a 12-week lead to 10 weeks, to 108 days—exposes its lack 
of systematic foundation. “If you don’t have a proper model, you fail to 
predict the future,” Sina said. “This is classic overfitting. You force the 
data to match historical behavior, but you lose any generalizability.” To 
illustrate the concept, Sina compared it to fitting a curve through a noisy 
sine wave. A well-structured model captures the core pattern and ignores 
noise. An overfit model, by contrast, attempts to match every small 
fluctuation—resulting in poor predictive performance when new data arrives. 
“Overfitting looks better, but it models noise. And noise doesn’t repeat,” he 
said. Sina also questioned whether Bitcoin might actually lead liquidity, not 
follow it. “If you look at the last cycle, Bitcoin topped first. Liquidity 
topped 145 days later,” he said. This reverses the causality implied by the 
Global M2 model and calls into question its entire premise as a forward- 
looking tool. His conclusion was blunt: “You have to be very careful with 
overfitting. It looks matching, but it’s forcibly fit on historical data. You 
have no idea about the predictive accuracy of this thing.” At press time, 
Bitcoin traded at $106,952. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from 
TradingView.com

Global M2 Can’t Predict Bitcoin Price, Says Quant Analyst

Kalshi plans to use a portion of the funding to scale its technology team, CEO 
Tarek Mansour said.

Prediction market Kalshi raises $185M at $2B valuation — Report

Chainlink (LINK) is up 21% from its Sunday lows, gaining momentum in an 
otherwise uncertain macro and geopolitical environment. While global tensions 
continue to spark volatility across markets, Chainlink has stood out for its 
resilience, supported by a series of strong partnerships and growing on-chain 
fundamentals. The recent price action signals a potential shift in trend, but 
analysts warn that a confirmed breakout is still needed before bulls can fully 
take over. Related Reading: Bitcoin Buy-Side Pressure Surges: Taker Buy Volume 
Spikes Sharply Top analyst Henry Lord of Alts highlighted that LINK has 
endured months of persistent downtrend and unusually quiet price behavior. 
However, recent moves suggest that something is changing beneath the surface. 
Volume is increasing, volatility is picking up, and LINK is forming a base 
structure that could mark the end of its accumulation phase. Despite this 
strength, Chainlink remains technically locked within a consolidation range. A 
clean breakout above key resistance levels will be critical to trigger the 
next phase of upward momentum. Until then, traders are cautiously optimistic 
as LINK teases a larger move. Chainlink Prepares For A Decisive Move Chainlink 
is currently trading over 25% below its May high, reflecting the broader 
market impact of rising macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, 
especially the recent Middle East conflicts. Despite these pressures, LINK has 
managed to hold within a steady consolidation range, signaling resilience as 
the crypto market awaits its next decisive move. Maintaining prices above 
current levels is crucial. A breakdown here could open the door for deeper 
corrections. However, analyst Henry believes the tides may be turning. 
According to Henry, Chainlink has endured months of downtrend and silence, but 
a structural shift is now underway. His analysis highlights that the long- 
standing downtrend has been broken, and LINK has entered a clear accumulation 
and consolidation phase. “These zones often come before the loudest moves,” 
Henry notes. Historically, such phases have preceded explosive rallies, and 
this time may be no different. If momentum picks up, a breakout toward the 
$25–$30 range wouldn’t be surprising. Henry also points out that periods of 
inactivity often mask the actions of smart money—buying quietly before the 
broader market catches on. While it’s easy to overlook assets during calm 
phases, that’s often when the groundwork for major moves is laid. For now, 
Chainlink remains on watch. Related Reading: Ethereum Whale Loads Up: $422M In 
ETH Bought In Under a Month LINK Price Analysis: Signs of Reversal Emerge 
Chainlink is showing early signs of a trend reversal after months of 
consistent decline. As seen in the 12-hour chart, LINK recently rebounded from 
the $11.50 level and is now trading above $13.20. This recovery follows a 
steep drop that marked a new local low, but the bounce has pushed the price 
above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), now acting as short-term support 
at $13.50. Importantly, LINK is now testing the 100-day SMA (around $14.65), 
which previously served as resistance in late May and early June. If bulls 
manage to break and consolidate above this level, the next target lies near 
the 200-day SMA at $14.16—a confluence zone that may act as a critical 
decision point for trend continuation or rejection. Related Reading: Ethereum 
Holds Critical Support – $2,350 Level Could Define The Next Move While the 
macro structure remains bearish, this short-term accumulation range suggests 
growing demand, especially as the price begins to form higher lows. A clear 
break above $14.65 with volume could confirm the breakout and signal the start 
of a larger move toward the $17–$18 range. Featured image from Dall-E, chart 
from TradingView