The mainstreaming of crypto prompts regulatory reassessment, potentially reshaping financial policies and banking practices globally. The post Fed&#8217;s Powell says Bitcoin and crypto have matured and become more mainstream appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

Fed’s Powell says Bitcoin and crypto have matured and become more mainstream

Cryptocurrency just took a major step toward financial legitimacy as U.S. 
housing regulators move to treat it as verifiable mortgage reserve capital, 
reshaping borrower risk assessments nationwide. Mortgage Industry Faces 
Transformation as Federal Housing Authorities Move to Legitimize Crypto 
Reserves A bullish regulatory shift is underway as federal housing authorities 
move to recognize cryptocurrency as […]

Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Ordered to Prepare for Crypto as Mortgage Asset

Analysts are bullish on ETH’s long-term prospects and ETF inflows, but futures 
data paints a different picture.

ETH ETF flows impress, but Ether futures data suggest traders exercise caution

Chinese authorities are ramping up efforts to enhance the international status 
of the yuan and reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar, particularly as confidence 
in the dollar wanes. Dollar Decline Aids Yuan China is intensifying efforts to 
elevate the yuan&#8217;s international standing and challenge the U.S. dollar&#8217;s 
global dominance, seizing an opportune moment as international […]

Yuan vs. Greenback: China’s Quiet Campaign for Financial Supremacy

Sina—co-founder of the hedge fund 21st Capital—publicly dismantled a popular 
Bitcoin price model promoted by Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal, calling it a 
textbook case of data illiteracy and overfitting. The model in question draws 
a close correlation between Bitcoin and Global M2—a measure of global money 
supply—by shifting M2 data forward by a set number of weeks, typically 10 to 
12, to supposedly “predict” Bitcoin’s future price moves. Raoul Pal has used 
this chart to argue that macro liquidity conditions drive crypto cycles, and 
that the current market behavior can be forecast using monetary expansion. 
Expert Torches M2-Bitcoin Correlation But Sina, a trained data scientist who 
teaches data analytics at the undergraduate and graduate level, says this 
model collapses under scrutiny. “This is a terrible failure of not 
understanding overfitting,” he said in a June 24 video posted to X. “What I’m 
seeing doesn’t even pass the first month of a first-year data analytics 
course.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Poised For Rally As Geopolitical Tensions 
Ease And Inflation Expectations Fall Sina points out that the apparent 
correlation between Bitcoin and Global M2 only exists because the data has 
been “tortured” to fit historical patterns. “If I’m allowed to play with the 
data and arbitrarily move things around, I can definitely find great matches 
between pockets of data,” he said, warning that this flexibility is exactly 
what allows analysts to create the illusion of predictive accuracy. The 
primary issue, he explained, is that the Global M2 data itself is inherently 
flawed. It’s compiled by multiplying various central banks’ M2 figures by 
exchange rates—mixing fast-reporting economies like the US with countries that 
have data delays of weeks or even months. This creates a misleading impression 
of daily fluctuations in global liquidity. “It seems to be moving on a daily 
basis, but it’s actually mixing frequent and infrequent updates,” Sina said. 
“It’s not a true signal.” More importantly, Sina argues that the model fails 
the moment one zooms out from selective chart slices. While Raoul Pal and 
others have showcased examples of tightly aligned tops and bottoms between 
Bitcoin and Global M2, Sina demonstrated how minor tweaks in lead time or 
scale can yield dramatically different outcomes. “Let’s try a lead of 80 days. 
That doesn’t look good. What about 108? Ah, now the tops align—so let’s zoom 
in again and pretend it works,” he said sarcastically. “This is not modeling. 
This is playing.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Repeats Its 2021 Pattern—Analyst 
Warns Final Crash Still Ahead He highlighted how each adjustment to the 
model—shifting from a 12-week lead to 10 weeks, to 108 days—exposes its lack 
of systematic foundation. “If you don’t have a proper model, you fail to 
predict the future,” Sina said. “This is classic overfitting. You force the 
data to match historical behavior, but you lose any generalizability.” To 
illustrate the concept, Sina compared it to fitting a curve through a noisy 
sine wave. A well-structured model captures the core pattern and ignores 
noise. An overfit model, by contrast, attempts to match every small 
fluctuation—resulting in poor predictive performance when new data arrives. 
“Overfitting looks better, but it models noise. And noise doesn’t repeat,” he 
said. Sina also questioned whether Bitcoin might actually lead liquidity, not 
follow it. “If you look at the last cycle, Bitcoin topped first. Liquidity 
topped 145 days later,” he said. This reverses the causality implied by the 
Global M2 model and calls into question its entire premise as a forward- 
looking tool. His conclusion was blunt: “You have to be very careful with 
overfitting. It looks matching, but it’s forcibly fit on historical data. You 
have no idea about the predictive accuracy of this thing.” At press time, 
Bitcoin traded at $106,952. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from 
TradingView.com

Global M2 Can’t Predict Bitcoin Price, Says Quant Analyst

Kalshi plans to use a portion of the funding to scale its technology team, CEO 
Tarek Mansour said.