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Bitcoin exchange outflows spike on Iran war: here’s what the whales are buying instead

Bitcoin price started a fresh increase from the $98,250 zone. BTC is now 
consolidating and might aim for a move above the $106,500 resistance. Bitcoin 
started a fresh increase above the $102,000 zone. The price is trading above 
$102,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There was a break above a 
key bearish trend line with resistance at $101,500 on the hourly chart of the 
BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair could start a fresh increase if 
it stays above the $102,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Recovers Ground Bitcoin price 
started a fresh increase from the $98,500 zone. BTC gained pace after Trump 
announced a ceasefire. The price was able to climb above the $102,000 and 
$103,200 levels. Besides, there was a break above a key bearish trend line 
with resistance at $101,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The pair 
cleared the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $106,470 
swing high to the $98,277 low. Finally, the price traded close to the $106,000 
level. Bitcoin is now trading above $104,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving 
average. It is also above the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move 
from the $106,470 swing high to the $98,277 low. On the upside, immediate 
resistance is near the $106,000 level. The first key resistance is near the 
$106,200 level. The next key resistance could be $106,500. A close above the 
$106,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, 
the price could rise and test the $108,000 resistance level. Any more gains 
might send the price toward the $110,000 level. Another Drop In BTC? If 
Bitcoin fails to rise above the $106,000 resistance zone, it could start 
another decline. Immediate support is near the $104,000 level. The first major 
support is near the $103,500 level. The next support is now near the $102,500 
zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $101,200 support in the 
near term. The main support sits at $100,000, below which BTC might struggle 
to find bids. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace 
in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for 
BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $104,000, followed 
by $103,500. Major Resistance Levels – $106,000 and $106,500.

Bitcoin Price Turns Higher — Relief Rally Follows Reduction In Global Risk

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After a brief drop to $98,000 over the weekend, Bitcoin (BTC) has recovered 
and is now trading above $101,000 at the time of writing. While concerns about 
a potential double top persist, on-chain data has yet to show any major 
warning signs. Bitcoin Undergoing Healthy Consolidation According to a recent 
CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Avocado_onchain, despite broader 
market sentiment turning bearish, BTC has not yet displayed any significant 
red flags. In fact, the cryptocurrency still appears to be in a consolidation 
phase. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whales Pull 4,500 BTC From Binance, Hinting At 
Incoming Rally Notably, the 30-day moving average (MA) of Binary Coin Days 
Destroyed (CDD) indicates that long-term holders are continuing to hold onto 
their BTC rather than selling. This suggests that investors remain optimistic 
about Bitcoin’s potential for further upside in the near term. For the 
uninitiated, the 30-day MA Binary CDD smooths out daily fluctuations to show 
how frequently long-term Bitcoin holders are moving their coins over a month. 
A lower value suggests strong holding behavior and accumulation, while a 
higher value may indicate distribution or selling pressure from experienced 
holders. The analyst noted in a previous analysis that when Bitcoin’s Binary 
CDD exceeded 0.8, it was typically followed by a steep correction. However, 
this time, the indicator has peaked around 0.6 and is now on the decline &#8211; 
suggesting the market is far from overheating. They added: Although the data 
may not align perfectly from cycle to cycle, this moderation below 0.8 still 
implies the market may be entering a consolidation period, and further price 
or time correction could follow. The analyst emphasized that this indicator 
does not signal the end of the bull run. Rather &#8211; similar to the previous two 
market phases &#8211; Bitcoin could be following a &#8220;staircase-like movement,&#8221; where 
periods of consolidation are followed by a strong upward leg. They concluded 
that BTC historically tends to rally when market attention fades and sentiment 
remains quiet. Therefore, the current period of low volatility could be a 
precursor to Bitcoin’s next major move to the upside. Are BTC Bears In 
Trouble? While the current bearish sentiment may have raised hopes for further 
price pullback for the largest cryptocurrency by reported market cap, both 
technical and on-chain indicators suggest otherwise. Related Reading: Bitcoin 
Yearly Trend Suggests Cycle Top Near $205,000 By Year-End, Analyst Says For 
example, short positions have been rising sharply within the $100,000–$110,000 
range, increasing the likelihood of a short squeeze &#8211; which could drive BTC to 
a new all-time high (ATH). That said, some caution is warranted, as short-term 
holders have been selling during recent dips, showing a lack of confidence in 
Bitcoin’s ability to sustain its upward trajectory. At press time, BTC trades 
at $101,954, up 1.1% in the past 24 hours. Featured image with Unsplash, 
charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

Bitcoin Binary CDD Hints At Healthy Consolidation, Not A Top

As volatility engulfs the cryptocurrency market amid war tensions, on-chain 
data shows that the Bitcoin short-term holders are selling at a loss. Bitcoin 
Short-Term Holders Just Made Large Exchange Inflows At A Loss In a new post on 
X, CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr has talked about how the Bitcoin short- 
term holders have reacted to the price volatility that has come alongside 
rising tensions in the Middle East following US strikes on three nuclear 
facilities in Iran. Related Reading: Consolidation Takes Its Toll: Bitcoin 
Investors No Longer Greedy The short-term holders (STHs) refer to the BTC 
investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. The other side 
of the network, the holders with a holding time greater than 155 days, are 
termed as the long-term holders (LTHs). The former group contains the new 
entrants and low conviction holders, who generally panic easily whenever some 
change occurs in the market. On the other hand, the latter cohort includes the 
veterans of the market, who tend to sit tight through crashes and rallies 
alike. As such, given the recent sharp price action that has occurred in the 
sector, the STHs are likely to have made some moves. And indeed, on-chain data 
would confirm so. The above chart, shared by the analyst, shows the data for 
the profit and loss exchange deposit transactions that the STHs as a whole are 
making. Investors usually transfer to these centralized platforms when they 
want to sell, so inflows going to them can provide hints about whether selling 
is elevated or not. From the graph, it&#8217;s visible that the loss transactions 
going to the exchanges from this cohort have amounted to 14,700 BTC, which, 
although lower than the two major capitulation events from the past couple of 
months, is significant. Thus, it would appear that some of the STHs have 
reacted to the news by exiting the market, even if it means taking a loss. 
Related Reading: Dogecoin Gears Up For 60% Move—Will It Be Up Or Down? It&#8217;s 
also apparent from the chart that the profitable transfers have remained 
relatively low at 3,100 BTC. This is likely down to the fact that the STHs are 
left with little profit following the price decline, as the on-chain analytics 
firm Glassnode has pointed out in an X post. In the chart, the trend of the 
STH Realized Price is displayed. This indicator keeps track of the Bitcoin 
cost basis or acquisition level of the average STH. During the crash, the 
price almost retested the line, and even after the rebound, it remains close 
to it, meaning the profit margin for the cohort is still tight. BTC Price At 
the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $101,300, down over 5% in the 
last week. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart 
from TradingView.com