Bitcoin has lost more than 8% over the past week as geopolitical tensions and military action between Israel and Iran ramped up.

Bitcoin ‘weakness shall pass’ after dip below $100K: Arthur Hayes

With Bitcoin precariously recovering above the $100,000 mark and altcoins 
bleeding momentum, traders are asking the obvious: Is the crypto bull run 
over? According to systematic trader Adam Bakay (@abetrade), the answer is not 
so clear-cut. In a detailed market breakdown posted June 22, Bakay offered a 
technically grounded, cautiously defensive assessment—one that acknowledges 
geopolitical risks but stays rooted in positioning and price structure. Is The 
Bitcoin Bull Run Over? “Looking at the monthly and weekly timeframes, we are 
still technically in an uptrend,” Bakay wrote, noting that “no key swing low 
was broken, and the 365-day rolling VWAP has been respected during the 
pullback in April.” Despite this, he admits that “the failure to make new all- 
time highs similar to the top in 2021” is a concern—especially given the 
accumulation by players like BlackRock, which now holds around 3.5% of 
Bitcoin’s total supply. It’s that divergence—between strong institutional 
interest and a market struggling to break higher—that has made Bakay more 
cautious in recent weeks. “This is why I have been very defensive and kept 
most of my trades short-term,” he said. Related Reading: Crypto Gets A Green 
Light From Spanish Banking Giant His trading view focuses on two potential 
technical scenarios: either a reclaim of the $100,000 support area—“likely if 
the conflict in the Middle East does not further escalate”—or a dip into the 
$97,000–$95,000 range, where strong technical support resides in the form of 
the 200-day moving average, local price structure, and the 90-day rolling 
VWAP. Still, Bakay made it clear he’s not shorting the market. “I am not 
currently considering any short trades due to my current positioning,” he 
emphasized, adding that open interest is dropping and that we are starting to 
see the “first signs of clear spot bid interest since the April lows.” The 
options market, meanwhile, is flashing early caution: the 25-delta risk 
reversal skew sits around -5, not yet at panic levels, but trending more 
negative. Crypto Bull Run In Jeopardy On Ethereum, Bakay was notably blunt. 
“ETH almost had its moment, but of course had to become a disappointment,” he 
said. He attributes the failed breakout in part to how quickly the “DeFi 
Summer 2025” narrative went viral. “People are getting too horny, and market 
made sure to punish them,” he noted, referencing his own tweet from a few days 
earlier. Related Reading: Crypto’s Unlikely Ally: Top Analyst Reveals War As A 
Surprising Bullish Force The technical picture on ETH doesn’t inspire 
confidence either. “During significant market moves, like we had at the 
beginning of May, the last thing you want to see is price retracing throughout 
that area,” he explained, saying the next meaningful support lies near $1,800. 
On the daily chart, Ethereum is sitting right at a confluence of support—both 
the 90-day rolling VWAP and what he calls a “pivotal level.” Still, much like 
Bitcoin, Bakay sees Ethereum’s short-term fate as largely dependent on 
developments in the Middle East. On positioning, ETH also shows signs of an 
oversold environment, though Bakay believes high volatility in ETH options has 
caused traders to use spreads instead of outright directional bets. 
“Positioning is now very clearly pointing towards the possible upside reversal 
in both perpetual and spot,” he said. Altcoins received no reprieve. “Altcoins 
have not been having fun for quite a while,” Bakay wrote, pointing out that 
“every time it starts to look better, it will almost immediately get worse.” 
He notes that the expected rotation from Bitcoin into altcoins hasn’t 
materialized, and the real rotation now seems to be into crypto-related 
equities, which better reflect the ETF-driven macro trade. Even strong names 
like Solana are fading. “SOL has almost retraced the entire rally from April,” 
he warned. The key level to watch is $100. “There is not much of a technical 
support sub-$100,” and if “shit hits the fan,” Bakay would look to bid around 
that round number. Bakay also briefly touched on two newer altcoins—Hype and 
Fartcoin—saying one offers a solid product and the other draws interest 
through volatility and liquidity. “Fartcoin would become attractive if it 
could reclaim the $1 or $0.50 area. Hype could find a bounce sub-$30.” His 
closing thoughts were pragmatic: “We are not in easy market conditions, with a 
lot of geopolitical uncertainty, and markets can be significantly affected by 
a single news release.” While he believes the market may be “getting too short 
at the moment,” he remains highly conscious of the possibility that a multi- 
month correction is already in play. “I don’t think there is a need to be a 
hero and try to catch a falling knife,” he concluded. “I would much rather 
wait for some positive news and signs of lower timeframe reversals.” In 
essence, Bakay doesn’t call the top. But his post makes one thing clear: this 
is not a market for bravado. It’s a time for restraint, tight risk management, 
and respect for volatility—especially when the bullish case no longer has 
momentum on its side. At press time, BTC traded at $101,847. Featured image 
created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Crypto Bull Run Over? Here’s What A Top Trader Just Said

Bitcoin is about to juggle a slew of geopolitcal and macroeconomic volatility 
triggers in a nail-biting end to June as $100,000 support hangs in the 
balance.

$92K dip vs. 'short-lived war' — 5 Things to know in Bitcoin this week

Wyoming’s first-of-its-kind state-issued stablecoin WYST will officially 
launch on August 20, with the state confirming plans to debut the token at the 
Wyoming Blockchain Symposium in Jackson, WY. The new timeline was announced by 
the Wyoming Stable Token Commission after…

Wyoming’s WYST stablecoin set to launch on August 20 at Blockchain Symposium

OKX’s reported US IPO comes as the exchange faces regulatory pressures in 
Asia.

OKX crypto exchange considering US IPO after local relaunch: Report

The Solana Foundation has achieved a milestone by signing a Memorandum of 
Understanding with the Government of Kazakhstan, marking the first partnership 
of its kind in Central Asia. The initiative aims to establish a blockchain hub 
in the country, leveraging Web3 technologies and attracting top talent. Solana 
Foundation Signs MOU With Kazakhstan, Launches Economic Zone […]