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Bitcoin continues to trade below its recent all-time high as selling pressure 
and macroeconomic developments keep the asset in consolidation. At the time of 
writing, BTC is priced at $104,835, down 2.1% over the past week and around 
6.3% off from its peak of $111,814 recorded last month. Despite the broader 
trend, on-chain data reveals emerging patterns that may signal what could come 
next in the market. Following the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest 
rates unchanged in its latest policy meeting, analysts have noted diverging 
trends in Bitcoin’s price and derivatives market activity. Related Reading: 
Bitcoin’s Momentum Wobbles—Analyst Predicts Correction Below $94K Derivatives 
Deleveraging and Liquidation Clusters Shape Price Structure According to Amr 
Taha, a contributor on CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform, BTC has been hovering 
above the $104,000 support zone, where strong demand appears to be absorbing 
sell pressure. However, Taha pointed out that open interest on Binance has 
declined, forming lower lows, a sign that the derivatives market is undergoing 
progressive deleveraging. Taha’s analysis emphasized a technical divergence: 
while price has remained relatively stable around the $104,000 level, open 
interest has been falling. This divergence suggests that traders are reducing 
leveraged positions, possibly due to market uncertainty or as a response to 
the Fed’s cautious stance. Notably, the $104K region has emerged as a critical 
liquidity pocket, with data showing long positions being liquidated massively 
in this area. The dominance of long-side liquidations, with few short 
liquidations, reflects a flush-out of recent entrants attempting to ride the 
previous rally. The analyst argued that this deleveraging phase could pave the 
way for a price rebound if macro conditions remain favorable. Historically, 
Bitcoin has responded positively to rate pauses, often resuming upward 
movement when signs of seller exhaustion appear. The stabilization of open 
interest, combined with reduced liquidations, might act as a foundation for a 
new upward push in the near term. Bitcoin Whale Activity on Binance and Shifts 
in Market Behavior In a separate analysis, another CryptoQuant analyst, 
Oinonen, highlighted growing whale activity on Binance. Since 2023, the whale 
ratio metric on the exchange has surged dramatically, climbing from 0.08 in 
mid-2023 to as high as 0.77 in 2025. This shift marks a 400% increase and 
indicates significant accumulation behavior among large holders. Whale inflows 
and retention on Binance have generally coincided with longer-term confidence 
during periods of market volatility. Related Reading: Bitcoin Channel Break 
Below $105,000 Sparks Panic, Analysts Predict Further Crashes Moreover, the 
data shows that during recent episodes of elevated volatility, Binance users 
have leaned toward holding rather than exiting positions. Inflows to the 
platform have remained low, particularly from both whales and retail 
participants, suggesting that market participants are refraining from panic 
selling and instead are anticipating future price appreciation. Featured image 
created with DALLE, Chart from TradingView

Is Bitcoin Gearing Up for a Breakout? On-Chain Signals Say ‘Watch This Level’

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Bitcoin price started a fresh decline below the $106,000 zone. BTC is now 
consolidating and might soon aim for a fresh increase above the $105,500 zone. 
Bitcoin started a fresh decline below the $106,000 zone. The price is trading 
below $105,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a key 
bearish trend line forming with resistance at $104,850 on the hourly chart of 
the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair could start a fresh 
increase if it stays above the $103,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Faces Resistance 
Bitcoin price started a fresh decline below the $107,500 zone. BTC gained pace 
and dipped below the $106,200 and $106,000 levels. There was a clear move 
below the $105,000 support level. Finally, the price tested the $103,500 zone. 
A low was formed at $103,400 and the price started a consolidation phase. It 
climbed above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 
$108,925 swing high to the $103,400 low. However, the bears were active below 
the $105,000 zone. Bitcoin is now trading below $105,000 and the 100 hourly 
Simple moving average. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with 
resistance at $104,850 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. On the upside, 
immediate resistance is near the $105,000 level. The first key resistance is 
near the $105,500 level. The next key resistance could be $106,150. It is near 
the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $108,925 swing 
high to the $103,400 low. A close above the $106,150 resistance might send the 
price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the 
$108,000 resistance level. Any more gains might send the price toward the 
$108,800 level. Another Drop In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the 
$105,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is 
near the $104,150 level. The first major support is near the $103,500 level. 
The next support is now near the $102,500 zone. Any more losses might send the 
price toward the $101,200 support in the near term. The main support sits at 
$100,000, below which BTC might gain bearish momentum. Technical indicators: 
Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI 
(Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. 
Major Support Levels – $104,150, followed by $103,500. Major Resistance Levels 
– $105,000 and $106,200.

Bitcoin Price Bottoms Out? Recovery Hopes Rise After Base Formation

Dogecoin’s daily chart, published by the pseudonymous trader Cantonese Cat on 
X Wednesday, hints that the meme-coin may be stirring after a months-long 
down-draft. At 02:26 UTC the TradingView snapshot captured DOGE changing hands 
at $0.16979, fractionally lower on the session, while the 14-period relative- 
strength index sat at 35.72, just north of classical oversold territory. 
Dogecoin Prints Bullish Divergence The most striking feature of the graphic is 
a sequence of regular bullish divergences—price sets progressively lower lows 
even as the RSI traces higher troughs. Cantonese Cat illustrates three such 
inflection points: the first in August 2024, the second in March and April 
2025 and the latest in mid-June. Historically, the first signal preceded the 
parabolic autumn rally that vaulted DOGE from the high-$0.05 area to an 
intraday peak just shy of $0.23, a nearly 300% advance. The March divergence 
ushered in a 100 percent rebound back to the $0.26 zone, a former support now 
acting as overhead resistance. Related Reading: Dogecoin Looks Like ‘It Wants 
To Play Dead’—Again “DOGE daily – Bullish divergence with RSI,” Cantonese Cat 
wrote in his post, letting the annotated arrows speak louder than prose. A 
schematic inserted on the right-hand side of the chart underlines the textbook 
definition: in the highlighted quadrant, price slopes downward while momentum 
slopes upward, a configuration often interpreted as buyers quietly absorbing 
supply. Descending Channel And Key Support Line The current structural context 
lends weight to the signal. Since topping out in November above $0.48, price 
is retracing inside a descending channel. Within that broader channel, 
Dogecoin is now retesting a former down-sloping resistance line—which provided 
stiff resistance throughout March and April this year—that it finally broke in 
early May and is now acting as crucial support near $0.163. Just below this 
back-test sits the multi-year ascending trendline which now sits close to 
$0.142. Should both of those levels falter, the true lower boundary of the 
descending channel waits a fraction lower around $0.139, giving bulls only a 
narrow buffer of roughly three cents to defend. Related Reading: Dogecoin 
Price Enters ‘Alarm Zone,’ Major Move Coming? From a Fibonacci perspective, 
the 0.786 retracement at $0.1826—coupled with the 20- and 50-day exponential 
moving averages as well as the channel midline at $0.172—forms the first 
ceiling that must be cleared to shift near-term momentum. A breakout above 
that area would expose the 0.618 level at $0.247 and the 100-day EMA. 
Successive hurdles then stack at the 0.5 retracement ($0.292), the 0.382 
($0.338), and the 0.236 ($0.3939), each corresponding to prior congestion 
zones during the winter advance. Volume has begun to taper as price approaches 
support, while the 14-period RSI remains anchored in the mid-30s—still 
technically oversold, but showing a slight uptick that mirrors the bullish 
divergence Cantonese Cat flagged. For bears, a decisive daily close beneath 
the multi-year trendline would invalidate that divergence setup and likely 
drive DOGE toward the horizontal liquidity band between $0.135 and $0.13, with 
a final capitulation target around $0.10—site of last October’s base. Featured 
image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com