X has suspended over 20 crypto-related accounts as of Monday, with the bans hitting Pump.fun and its co-founder, Alon Cohen.

Pump.fun and its founder hit in X account suspension blitz

Dogecoin’s Market-Value-to-Realised-Value (MVRV) Z-Score is printing just 0.28 
– a level normally associated with capitulation, not euphoria. Yet the price 
of the ninth-largest cryptocurrency keeps carving a succession of higher highs 
and higher lows on the weekly chart, trading near $0.17 with a market 
capitalisation of roughly $26 billion in Monday’s late-New-York session. The 
juxtaposition between lethargic on-chain sentiment and resilient spot bids was 
laid bare in a chart posted to X by Kevin, the pseudonymous analyst behind 
@Kev_Capital_TA. “Dogecoin MVRV Score is still at bear-market levels while 
price continues to make higher highs and higher lows on higher time frames,” 
he wrote. Kevin also pointed out that previous cycle tops saw the Z-Score blow 
off at ≈11 in 2017 and ≈16 in 2021, whereas the current advance has so far 
peaked at 3.5. “#DOGE … has not seen a real bull run yet. This delay in 
durable Altcoins out-performance is very much due to restrictive monetary 
policy… It will change at some point and Alts will have their day in the sun.” 
The Macro Backdrop For Dogecoin The “restrictive monetary policy” Kevin cites 
remains the single most important head-wind for the entire alt-coin complex. 
In the US, the Federal Reserve has held the fed-funds target at 4.25 %–4.50% 
since January, having already delivered three cuts in 2024. Related Reading: 
Dogecoin Must Hold This Level—Or Risk A 30% Price Crash Futures markets this 
week imply the first additional reduction “around September or later,”after 
soft May inflation but a still-solid economy At the same time the Fed is only 
slowing — not stopping — quantitative tightening: beginning 1 April the 
monthly Treasury run-off cap fell to $5 billion from $25 billion, but Chair 
Jerome Powell made clear “there is no sign yet the Fed is ready to end QT.” In 
Europe, the ECB has started to nudge borrowing costs lower, slicing the 
deposit rate to 2% on 5 June. President Christine Lagarde nevertheless 
insisted the Governing Council was “in a good position” to move gradually and 
would keep quantitative easing “in the toolbox,” rather than redeploying it. 
Vice-President Luis de Guindos was more explicit yesterday, telling Reuters 
that the ECB had “learned much more about side effects” of money printing and 
that the bar for new QE is now “higher.” The net result is a world in which 
policy rates are still comfortably above neutral, liquidity is being drained 
by the Fed, and European officials are determined not to repeat the 2015-21 
experiment of perpetual bond-buying. In Kevin’s words, this “delay” in easy 
money explains why alt-coins have under-performed Bitcoin so far in the 
2024-25 cycle. Reading The MVRV Tea Leaves MVRV compares the aggregate market 
value of all coins with the value at which they last moved on-chain (their 
realised value). A Z-Score normalises that ratio against its own multi-year 
mean and standard deviation. Historically for Dogecoin, values above +9 have 
coincided with secular tops (January 2018; May 2021), values between –1 and +1 
have appeared during long lateral “crypto winters,” and values below –1 have 
signalled deep capitulation and, in hindsight, exceptional long-term entry 
points. Related Reading: $8 Dogecoin? Analyst Says You’ll Regret Sleeping On 
This Chart Today’s 0.28 sits squarely inside the winter band even though spot 
DOGE is up roughly 5x from its 2022 lows. The same disparity is visible within 
the chart: the blue line (market cap) has been rising since late 2023, while 
the red Z-Score remains pinned near zero because the orange line (realised 
cap) is climbing almost in lock-step as dormant supply changes hands at higher 
cost basis. In plain English, the average on-chain holder is not yet sitting 
on the kind of paper profits that breed euphoria. When Could Policy Turn From 
Restrictive To Supportive? Futures markets now look for two quarter-point Fed 
cuts by December, taking policy to roughly 3.75%. Market-implied odds of a 
September move fluctuate with each inflation print; should shelter and 
services dis-inflation stall, traders will push expectations into 2026. 
However, neither the Fed nor the ECB is openly contemplating new asset 
purchases. Powell told reporters in March that the slower pace of QT is 
designed to “extend how far the central bank can run QT before needing to 
stop,” not to hint at a reversal. In Frankfurt, de Guindos stressed that 
“sometimes it’s much easier to start using [QE] than to withdraw it,” 
signalling that any relaunch would require either a financial-stability shock 
or a deep recession. With QT still active and rate-cut trajectories shallow, a 
powerful systemic tail-wind for DOGE may not materialise until after the first 
Fed or ECB pause in balance-sheet contraction. If consensus is correct that QT 
ends late-2025 or early-2026, any prospective QE would be a story for the next 
downturn, not this upswing. Kevin’s interpretation hinges on potential energy. 
Because the Z-Score has not yet detached from its mean, Dogecoin can, in 
theory, absorb a fresh wave of retail and leverage-driven inflows without 
immediately flashing the kind of overheated signal that coaxed sellers in 2017 
and 2021. Put differently, DOGE’s spring has not been compressed. Macro, 
however, remains the gating factor. “Buy them low and sell them high. Never 
get attached to your Alts,” the analyst reminds followers. For now, low MVRV 
suggests structural downside is limited, but cyclicality implies explosive 
upside will likely coincide with a convincing turn in global liquidity – a 
turn that the Fed and the ECB, by their own admission, are not yet ready to 
deliver. At press time, DOGE traded at $0.17387. Featured image created with 
DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bear Signal Lingers On Dogecoin—Here’s Why That’s Bullish

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