U.S. stocks declined after anticipated Fed decision, and ahead of Nvidia&#8217;s earnings.

Dow Jones slips 100 points as Fed maintains target rate, Nvidia earnings in focus

With bitcoin still hovering above the $100,000 mark but slipping since hitting 
its record high, four vintage wallets from 2011 sprang to life this week, 
moving 221.99 BTC—worth over $23 million—for the first time in nearly 14 
years. Dormant Bitcoin From 2011 Springs to Life Early-era bitcoin stashes 
from 2009, 2010, and 2011 rarely move […]

Ghost Wallets From 2011 Awaken, Move $23M in Bitcoin

In an interview with Korean crypto researcher Juhyuk Bak, also known as 
@JuhyukB, Capriole Investments CEO Charles Edwards laid out a striking 
divergence in the crypto asset markets: while Bitcoin could double this year, 
altcoins remain structurally impaired and far from any meaningful rotation. 
Bitcoin Could Hit $200,000 This Year Speaking from the perspective of a macro 
quant hedge fund operator, Edwards was unequivocally bullish on Bitcoin, 
stating, “If the data stays in the current trend we’re in, I think $150–200K 
is definitely possible this year.” The founder of Capriole, a fund known for 
pioneering on-chain valuation models like Hash Ribbons, Energy Value, and the 
Macro Index, grounded this forecast in a web of interlocking technical, 
sentiment, and macroeconomic signals. Related Reading: Bitcoin Warning: Bull 
Trap Or $270,000 Rocket? Analyst Exposes What’s Coming “We’re printing new 
all-time highs on daily and weekly closes,” Edwards noted. “As long as we stay 
above $104K […] as long as the Macro Index trends up, and US liquidity 
continues to rise, this environment is very bullish.” Capriole’s proprietary 
Macro Index—a machine learning model aggregating over 100 inputs from Fed 
liquidity to bond and equity markets—has turned decisively positive. Bitcoin&#8217;s 
rally, Edwards emphasized, is further reinforced by metrics like MVRV Z-Score, 
Hodler Growth Rates, and Energy Value, all signaling room for expansion. But 
while Bitcoin shows strength across multiple dimensions, altcoins are telling 
a very different story. The Death Of The Old Altcoin Cycle Edwards refrained 
from naming specific altcoins but delivered a clear macro verdict: the capital 
flow dynamics have changed, and altcoins are no longer on an equal footing 
with Bitcoin. “Structurally, things are quite a bit different this cycle […] 
the biggest driving forces are Bitcoin ETFs and US policy. That’s creating a 
centralizing effect—funneling capital directly into Bitcoin,” he explained. He 
pointed to the historical cycles of retail-led altcoin rallies, followed by 
catastrophic drawdowns—often exceeding 99% losses. “Retail has just gotten 
destroyed,” he said bluntly. “There’s a fatigue in the altcoin space that 
wasn’t there four or five years ago.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Explode 
On Bessent’s $250 Billion Deregulation Shock The legacy of failed ICOs, broken 
tokenomics, and events like the FTX collapse have left lasting scars. 
Meanwhile, institutions are avoiding the risks and complexity of smaller-cap 
digital assets, opting instead for regulated Bitcoin exposure through ETFs and 
corporate treasury allocations. “It used to be more of a level playing field. 
That’s no longer the case,” Edwards said. “The real money is flowing into 
Bitcoin—and that probably continues for a while.” When Will Altcoins Wake Up? 
Despite the grim tone, Edwards does not dismiss altcoins entirely. He views a 
strong altcoin cycle as conditional—not impossible, but dependent on clear 
Bitcoin dominance first. Using Capriole’s Speculation Index and Crypto Breadth 
models, which track the relative strength and price movement of altcoins, he 
made a key observation: “Right now, only 5% of altcoins are above their 
200-day moving average. That’s not bullish.” He compared the current setup to 
late 2020, when Bitcoin surged from $10K to $60K before altcoins began 
outperforming. That rotation required Bitcoin to first breach previous all- 
time highs decisively. “You want Bitcoin to hit something like $140K while 
alts are still underperforming. That would be the ideal setup […] that’s when 
capital begins rotating downstream,” he explained. Conversely, if altcoins 
begin pumping prematurely, while Bitcoin remains range bound, Edwards sees 
that as a top signal. “That’s usually the last puff of air,” he warned. Cycles 
Are Changing, Risks Are Evolving Beyond price action, Edwards questioned the 
relevance of traditional halving cycles. He argued that the impact of 
miners—once the primary driver of Bitcoin supply dynamics—has diminished 
significantly due to ETFs, corporate treasuries, and sovereign actors like 
Michael Saylor. “That four-year cycle is dead—or at least dramatically weaker. 
Miners are now just 2–3% of the total supply flow. The real drivers today are 
institutions,” he said. This evolution reduces the probability of 80% 
drawdowns and increases the risk of systemic leverage—particularly from 
publicly traded Bitcoin-heavy firms. While not an immediate concern, Edwards 
sees potential for long-term vulnerabilities if major players overextend. 
Edwards also discussed diversification within Capriole’s portfolio. While 
Bitcoin remains the firm’s core allocation, he revealed exposure to quantum 
computing equities like IonQ (IONQ), Rigetti (RGTI), D-Wave (QBTS), and QUBT. 
“I think quantum is like Bitcoin in 2015. It’s early, it’s volatile, but the 
long-term CAGR could be even higher than Bitcoin’s.” He added that gold also 
plays a strategic role, not as a replacement but as a hedge. Capriole monitors 
the gold-to-equity ratio closely, and its breakout above the 200-day moving 
average is seen as a historically bullish signal—both for gold and Bitcoin. In 
closing, Edwards urged investors to tune out most of the financial news cycle. 
“Probably 99% of headlines don’t matter,” he said. Instead, focus on game- 
changing shifts: Fed pivots, global liquidity expansions, and true structural 
reconfigurations of capital flow. “We’re wired to overreact to bad news. The 
key is to filter it down to a few macro drivers that actually move the 
market—and Bitcoin right now has those working in its favor.” Until altcoins 
show meaningful breadth and break their long-term resistance structures, 
Edwards&#8217; message is clear: Bitcoin will soar. Altcoins won’t—at least, not 
yet. At press time, BTC traded at $105,557. Featured image created with 
DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin Will Soar, Altcoins Won’t—Charles Edwards Explains Why

REX Shares took a “regulatory end-around” with its Ethereum and Solana staking 
ETF filings, and the launch looks “imminent,” an ETF analyst says.

ETH, SOL 'very rare' staking ETFs may launch imminently — Analysts

Hashkey Exchange welcomes XRP, making it more accessible to professional 
investors, bolstering its position in the digital economy. XRP Joins Hashkey 
Exchange: A New Era of Professional Investor Access Hashkey Exchange, a 
licensed crypto trading platform overseen by the Hong Kong Securities and 
Futures Commission (SFC), has officially added XRP to its platform for 
professional […]

XRP’s Institutional Access Expands With Hashkey Exchange Listing

Data shows a large number of long liquidations have occurred in the 
cryptocurrency market as Bitcoin and other assets have plunged. Crypto 
Liquidations Have Surpassed $712 Million Over The Past Day According to data 
from CoinGlass, chaos has occurred on the derivatives market following the 
volatility Bitcoin and the company have gone through during the last 24 hours. 
Related Reading: Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Signals Price Hot, But Not In Danger Zone 
Yet Below is a table that shows how the liquidations have looked for the 
cryptocurrency sector within this window. As is visible, almost $712 million 
in cryptocurrency contracts have seen forceful closure from their platform in 
the past day. About $477 million of these came during the last twelve hours 
alone. Bitcoin and the altcoins, especially, have seen a decline in this 
period, so it&#8217;s not surprising to see that the liquidations have 
overwhelmingly affected the long investors. More specifically, the holders 
betting on a bullish outcome have been involved in more than 90% of the flush. 
A mass liquidation event like this latest one is popularly known as a squeeze, 
and given the sharp imbalance toward the bulls, this particular event would be 
called a long squeeze. During a squeeze, a large amount of liquidations get 
triggered at once and feed back into the move that caused them. This unleashes 
a cascade of further liquidations, making such events quite volatile. As for 
which of the individual tokens contributed the most to the long squeeze, the 
heatmap below shows it. Bitcoin and Ethereum, the top two cryptocurrencies in 
terms of market cap, have also come out on top in this list, with the former 
observing liquidations of $221 million and the latter that of $116 million. 
The third-ranked coin, however, hasn&#8217;t been XRP, but rather Solana, which is a 
couple of spots lower in terms of market cap. SOL&#8217;s $32 million in 
liquidations may be down to the fact that it has seen a larger decline than 
XRP. While Bitcoin has seen a push down during the past day, its downfall 
actually started much earlier, with the high around $112,000 from May 22nd 
acting as the top so far. According to a report from the on-chain analytics 
firm Santiment, this peak coincided with a spike in whale activity. The 
indicator displayed in the chart is the &#8220;Whale Transaction Count,&#8221; which tells 
us about how many whale-sized transfers are occurring on the BTC network every 
day. Related Reading: Toncoin Open Interest Spikes 33%—Will History Repeat 
With A Pullback? It would appear that both versions of this metric (tracking 
transactions valued at more than $100,000 and $1 million) surged to a high 
level earlier in this month, a potential sign that profit-taking from these 
humongous entities forced Bitcoin toward a top. Bitcoin Price BTC saw a dip 
under the $105,000 level earlier in the day, but it appears the coin has since 
observed a small rebound as it&#8217;s now back at $105,800. Featured image from 
Dall-E, Santiment.net, CoinGlass.com, chart from TradingView.com