Bitcoin has surged above $104,000, nearing its January record high and adding over 10% in value over the past week. As of press time, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $104, 325, just 3.79% below its all-time high of $108,786 reached…

Bitcoin eyes new all-time high amid “substantial progress” in U.S.-China trade talks

Bitcoin (BTC) launches into US CPI week with new multimonth highs as traders 
dig in for volatility.
 * BTC price action is giving increasingly bullish signals, joined by a key cross on the weekly MACD indicator.
 * The weekly close fell just short of expectations, raising doubts over whether price discovery will return in the immediate future.
 * CPI and PPI headline the week&#8217;s US macro data drops, but markets are all about the US-China trade deal and its implications.
 * Bitcoin supply in loss drops below 2% in a rare test of hodlers&#8217; staying power.
 * Despite the gains, crypto market sentiment remains cool amid a lack of mainstream interest.
## 
Bitcoin MACD cross copies October 2024
Bitcoin managed to preserve its highest levels since January around the weekly 
close as bulls battle resistance below all-time highs.
Volatility was visible over the weekend thanks to BTC/USD staying sensitive to 
developments around US trade tariffs.
On the hourly chart, these manifested as snap moves up and down before a broad 
sideways trend continued, resulting in several &#8220;long wick&#8221; candles.
That pattern continued into the week&#8217;s first Wall Street open, with Bitcoin 
hitting new highs of $105,706 on Bitstamp, per data from Cointelegraph Markets 
Pro and TradingView.
_BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView_
&#8220;Price action was making it seem like something big was coming. Any tiny dip 
was getting scooped up instantly and price started to move ~1 hour prior to 
the announcement,&#8221; popular trader Daan Crypto Trades wrote about the tariffs 
phenomenon in part of a post on X.
&gt; &#8220;We&#8217;re seeing quite a lot of &#8216;aware&#8217; price action precede big announcements 
&gt; lately. The insider/leaking is real and it&#8217;s used to trade our markets. Keep 
&gt; in mind, seeing this is such a big one including two major countries, it 
&gt; could be anyone anywhere.&#8221;
_BTC/USDT perpetual swaps 15-minute chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X_
Fellow trader James Wynn continued by forecasting additional volatility to 
come.
&#8220;It&#8217;s about to get seriously volatile for $BTC. Sharp wicks down, sharp wicks 
up,&#8221; part of his own X post stated.
An accompanying chart showed exchange order book liquidity from monitoring 
resource CoinGlass. To the upside, $106,000 was the key area to break through 
on low timeframes.
_BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass_
Others pointed to a bullish cross on the moving average convergence/divergence 
(MACD) indicator, which on weekly timeframes provided a key upside impetus.
&#8220;Probably the biggest signal you can get at the moment,&#8221; popular trader 
Moustache summarized to X followers, noting that the last such cross was in 
October 2024.
_BTC/USD 1-week chart with MACD data. Source: Moustache/X_
As Cointelegraph reported, MACD had previously offered mixed signals, with 
daily performance giving traders pause for thought.
## 
Bitcoin bulls narrowly miss key weekly target
Despite hitting its highest levels in three-and-a-half months after the weekly 
close, Bitcoin failed to flip a key support line that would secure a fresh 
breakout.
The weekly candle closed at around $104,100 &#8212; a stone&#8217;s throw from what 
analysis previously described as the ticket to price discovery.
_BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView_
Updating X followers on the topic, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital 
confirmed a rejection at $104,500.
&#8220;Going forward, it&#8217;ll be worth watching for Bitcoin to form Lower Lows on the 
price action and Higher Lows on the RSI for a Bullish Divergence to develop,&#8221; 
he concluded.
_BTC/USD 1-day chart with RSI data. Source: Rekt Capital/X_
Before the close, BTC/USD had given strong cues that a retest of all-time 
highs could be on the cards and even a venture beyond.
&#8220;Bitcoin is on the cusp of beginning Price Discovery Uptrend 2,&#8221; Rekt Capital 
stated at the time.
_BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X_
Price thus returned to a trading range only recently reclaimed during a week 
in which bulls enjoyed gains of 9.9%.
As Cointelegraph reported, BTC price targets already included $150,000 and 
higher during June.
## 
CPI week dawns with uncertainty &#8220;everywhere&#8221;
Another crunch macroeconomic data week for risk-asset traders makes for a 
potentially volatile environment for Bitcoin and altcoins.
Two key inflation markers, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price 
Index (PPI) print for April, are due in the coming days.
At the same time, markets are on edge over US trade policy, with news of a 
deal with China sparking flash moves in crypto over the weekend.
&#8220;We have yet to receive a statement from Trump directly on the US-China trade 
deal,&#8221; trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted in part of ongoing X 
coverage.
&gt; &#8220;This explains why markets are only up ~1.3% on this otherwise massively 
&gt; bullish news. Uncertainty is still everywhere.&#8221;
_S &amp;P 500 E-mini futures chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView_
Kobeissi added that retail earnings reports could also shape market 
performance over the coming week.
Continuing, trading firm Mosaic Asset argued that trade news aside, risk 
assets lacked bullish impetus thanks to an ongoing hawkish policy stance from 
the US Federal Reserve and Chair Jerome Powell.
The Fed left interest rates unchanged at its meeting last week, with markets 
increasingly pricing out a cut before July.
&#8220;While there is some easing of tensions on the trade front, the latest 
interest rate setting meeting by the Federal Reserve isn&#8217;t delivering any 
bullish catalysts,&#8221; Mosaic Asset wrote in the latest edition of its regular 
newsletter, &#8220;The Market Mosaic.&#8221;
&gt; &#8220;Despite capital market volatility this year, Fed Chair Powell reiterated 
&gt; his message that the Fed can take a &#8216;wait and see&#8217; approach to how tariffs 
&gt; are impacting the economy and inflation.&#8221;
_Fed target rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME Group_
The latest data from CME Group&#8217;s FedWatch Tool puts the chance of a rate cut 
in June at under 15%, while the Fed&#8217;s July meeting attracts around 50% odds.
## 
Euphoria vs. &#8220;smart distribution&#8221;
The proportion of the Bitcoin supply held in profit has reached more than 98% 
&#8212; something barely seen before, new research says.
In one of its &#8220;Quicktake&#8221; blog posts on May 11, onchain analytics platform 
CryptoQuant examined whether the Bitcoin investor base was inclined to &#8220;smart 
distribution&#8221; at current levels.
&#8220;When BTC&#8217;s supply in loss drops to between 0-2%, it typically coincides with 
late-stage bull runs,&#8221; contributor Kripto Mevsimi summarized.
&gt; &#8220;As shown in the chart, these moments cluster near macro tops &#8212; a zone 
&gt; often characterized by overconfidence.&#8221;
_BTC supply days in loss (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant_
The post added that long-term holders &#8212; those hodling for at least six months 
&#8212; may see the return to six figures as a suitable opportunity to reduce BTC 
exposure. Newcomers and speculators, on the other hand, may only now be 
planning an entry.
&#8220;With nearly all BTC holders in profit, distribution risk increases. Long-term 
holders may see these conditions as a signal to derisk, especially with BTC 
near all-time highs,&#8221; Kripto Mevsimi continued.
&gt; &#8220;Meanwhile, newer entrants could interpret this strength as confirmation to 
&gt; chase, creating a potential sentiment mismatch.&#8221;
Last week, research nonetheless suggested that buy-side and sell-side pressure 
was broadly balanced, with the implication that Bitcoin could continue moving 
higher without a significant rush to the exit.
## 
Mainstream retail ignores $104,000 Bitcoin
In an interesting development &#8212; one potentially supporting sustained BTC 
price upside &#8212; the market is less &#8220;greedy&#8221; at $104,000 than it was when 
Bitcoin traded more than 10% lower.
_**Related:**__**Ethereum chart pattern supports &#8216;moon shot&#8217; rally to new 
price highs if confirmed &#8212; Trader**_
The latest data from the Crypto Fear &amp; Greed Index shows that while &#8220;greed&#8221; 
does characterize the general mood, the initial push to $94,000 on April 23 
delivered higher readings.
Fear &amp; Greed measured 70/100 on May 12, while on April 23 it reached 72/100, 
just inches from &#8220;extreme greed&#8221; territory.
Lower levels of greed in the face of higher prices could potentially signal 
more sustainable price growth as investors resist the urge to act erratically.
_Crypto Fear &amp; Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me_
Analyzing Google Trends volumes for &#8220;Bitcoin&#8221; in particular, market 
commentators have come to similar conclusions.
Despite being close to new all-time highs, Bitcoin is still not attracting 
significant mainstream retail interest.
&gt; Google Trends searches for Bitcoin indicate that $BTC is no longer a retail 
&gt; game. 
&gt; 
&gt; Which confirms my theory as to why CT isn&#8217;t crazy about a 100k $BTC. 
&gt; 
&gt; Graphic: @invest_answers pic.twitter.com/R56JjQpZXa 
&gt; 
&gt; &#8212; Westy💾 (@Westy_Dev) May 11, 2025
&#8220;Google searches for &#8216;Bitcoin&#8217; at close to a 5-year low. Price over 100k,&#8221; 
Vijay Selvam, author of &#8220;Principles of Bitcoin,&#8221; summarized on X at the 
weekend.
&gt; &#8220;Retail hasn&#8217;t even properly checked back in since 2020.&#8221;
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every 
investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their 
own research when making a decision.

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