The United States Department of the Treasury has imposed sanctions on the Karen National Army, a Burmese militia group, accusing it of orchestrating large-scale crypto scams alongside other offences. The sanctions were announced on May 5 in a press release…

U.S. Treasury sanctions Burmese militia group over crypto pig butchering scams

At Sui Basecamp, macro investor and Real Vision co-founder Raoul Pal delivered 
a characteristically sweeping address that framed the current crypto market 
environment as the beginning of what he called a “liquidity-driven supercycle” 
— with Bitcoin potentially reaching $450,000 before the end of it. Drawing 
from over three decades of macroeconomic research, Pal outlined his thesis 
through the lens of what he terms the “Everything Code,” a framework that 
centers on global liquidity, debt cycles, and currency debasement as the core 
forces shaping asset prices across all markets. Why $450,000 Bitcoin Is 
Possible? “Bitcoin’s year-on-year rate of change is driven by financial 
conditions with a three-month lag,” said Pal, pointing to the remarkably 
consistent correlation between total global liquidity and the price action of 
major assets. “The correlation between Bitcoin and global liquidity is 90%, 
and with the Nasdaq, it&#8217;s 95%. It’s hard to refute that this is not what is 
happening.” According to Pal, this correlation is not incidental — it is 
structurally tied to how the modern macro system operates, especially in a 
post-2008 world characterized by chronic debt overhang and systematic 
liquidity injections. Pal emphasized that most people misunderstand the true 
driver of crypto cycles. “Everyone talks about the halving, but this is about 
the debt refi cycle. Every four years, global debt rolls over, and central 
banks are forced to pump liquidity to avoid systemic collapse.” He added that 
the average maturity of global debt is four years, concentrated in the three- 
to five-year sector, which naturally produces cyclical liquidity waves that 
coincide with market booms in crypto. The mechanism, Pal argued, is a global 
financial shell game: “Scarce assets keep going up in price — real estate, 
equities, art, gold. Young people can’t afford them. What’s actually happening 
is a global taxation of 8% a year you don’t understand. Add in another 3% 
global inflation, and you’re looking at 11% debasement.” In this context, 
Bitcoin — with its fixed supply and decentralized nature — becomes, in Pal’s 
view, a rational escape valve for capital. Related Reading: Bitcoin Recovery 
Fueled By Almost $19 Billion In Crypto Inflows, Data Shows Notably, Pal 
referred to Bitcoin as the single best-performing asset in all of financial 
history, citing a 27.5 million percent return since 2012 and an average 
annualized return of 130%, despite massive drawdowns. “Nothing has ever come 
close,” he said, before comparing its performance to that of Ethereum (113%) 
and Solana (142%), with the caveat that Solana’s data covers a shorter 
timeframe. While some of his statements may appear hyperbolic, Pal backed them 
with a detailed macro analysis and time-tested indicators. He invoked his use 
of Demark indicators — a technical analysis tool — which flagged significant 
market turning points in prior cycles, and are now suggesting a breakout 
continuation for Bitcoin. According to his models, should the ISM (Institute 
for Supply Management) Manufacturing Index reach a level of 57, Bitcoin could 
be fairly priced at $450,000. “Is it exact? No. But all the people who are 
saying it’s going to $150K or $250K are probably scarred from the last cycle,” 
Pal argued, stressing the importance of forward-looking data. Related Reading: 
Bitcoin Price Faces Stiff Resistance: Is Another Drop on the Horizon? He also 
dismissed current bearish sentiment as misguided and backward-looking: “People 
are creating narratives for today to explain liquidity conditions from three 
months ago,” he said, criticizing popular economic commentary on platforms 
like X. To Pal, the market has already priced in recent economic weakness — 
including fears surrounding tariffs, the slowing economy, and geopolitical 
tensions — and is beginning to pivot toward the next liquidity expansion 
phase. “Bitcoin’s already priced it down to 47.4 on the business cycle 
indicator,” he said, referencing data that had only just come out the day 
before. “But financial conditions lead by nine months, and they’re turning.” 
When Will BTC Peak? Pal’s broader view is that we are now entering “the banana 
zone,” his term for the high-velocity portion of the crypto cycle where prices 
move sharply upward. “Every cycle looks the same. Breakout, retest, banana 
zone. We’ve had banana one, the corrective zone, banana two. What’s next is 
banana three.” He believes the current setup is unusually strong due to a 
confluence of factors: synchronized global liquidity expansion, a weakening 
dollar, central banks beginning to ease, and retail plus institutional 
underexposure to risk assets. As he concluded his speech, Pal reinforced his 
thesis with urgency but caution: “We’ve got the central banks debasing 
currency, giving us a gigantic tailwind. They don’t want the system to break. 
Every time something happens, they inject more liquidity. They’re giving you 
free money. And to take that money, you need the volatility.” He warned 
against overtrading, using leverage, or panicking during inevitable 
corrections. “Don’t f*** this up,” he said, referencing his own past mistakes 
during the 2017 bull run. “Hold on to your tokens. Be careful. Don’t get FOMO. 
Follow the liquidity.” Pal expects this cycle to extend potentially into Q1 or 
Q2 of 2026, especially if political dynamics around a possible Trump re- 
election push the liquidity cycle even further. Whether Bitcoin ultimately 
reaches $450,000 remains to be seen, but Pal’s thesis is clear: the macro 
tailwinds are aligned, the data supports it, and this may be — as he puts it — 
“the greatest macro opportunity of all time.” At press time, BTC traded at 
$94,191. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Raoul Pal: Bitcoin Could Hit $450,000 In Liquidity-Driven Supercycle

DeFi Development Corp. purchased $11.2 million worth of Solana ( SOL) tokens 
on May 6, 2025, increasing its total holdings to 400,091 SOL, valued at 
approximately $58.5 million. DeFi Development Corp. Bolsters Treasury with 
82,404 Additional Solana Tokens The Boca Raton-based company acquired roughly 
82,404.50 SOL tokens, according to a regulatory filing. Its total holdings, 
[…]

DeFi Development Corp. Expands Solana Treasury to 400,091 Tokens

**Key Takeaways:**
 * The Bitcoin Risk-Off signal dropped to 23.7, its lowest since March 2019, indicating low correction risk and a high likelihood of a bullish trend developing.
 * Despite the recent decline in network activity, bullish macro indicators like the Macro Chain Index (MCI) suggest Bitcoin could soon rally above $100,000.
On May 5, the Bitcoin Risk-Off signal, an indicator that uses onchain and 
exchange data to assess correction risk, dropped to its lowest level (23.7) 
for the first time since March 27, 2019, when Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $4,000. 
The signal is currently in the blue zone, which historically suggests low 
correction risk and a high probability of a bullish trend. When the oscillator 
rises above 60 or turns red, it implies a high risk of bearish movement.
_Bitcoin Risk-Off signal indicator. Source: CryptoQuant_
In 2019, the same signal preceded a staggering 1,550% rally that saw Bitcoin 
soar above $68,000 in 2021.
Data from CryptoQuant indicates that the Risk-Off signal combines six metrics: 
downside and upside volatility, exchange inflows, funding rates, futures open 
interest, and market capitalization. Collectively, they provide a balanced 
view of correction risk, making the signal a data-oriented gauge for market 
trends.
The last time the Risk-Off Signal indicated a low-risk investment environment, 
Bitcoin was valued at $4,000. Several factors can explain the price disparity.
The launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US in 2024 
opened the floodgates to institutional capital, boosting demand and 
stabilizing prices. In fact, ETFs and public companies now hold 9% of the 
Bitcoin supply.
&gt; 🚨LATEST: ETFs and public companies now hold 9% of Bitcoin&#8217;s supply! Spot 
&gt; ETFs own 5.5% just 1 year after launch, while public firms like Strategy 
&gt; hold 3.5%. Institutional adoption is reshaping $BTC&#8217;s market&#8211;less supply, 
&gt; shifting dynamics. 👀👀 
&gt; 
&gt; (h/t: @ecoinometrics ) pic.twitter.com/iC892RveP2 
&gt; 
&gt; &#8212; Cointelegraph Markets &amp; Research (@CointelegraphMT) May 3, 2025
Data from Fidelity Digital Assets noted that Bitcoin&#8217;s volatility has 
decreased three to four times that of equity indexes, down from triple-digit 
volatility in its early years, as illustrated in the chart below. Between 2019 
and 2025, the 1-year annualized realized volatility dropped by more than 80%.
This maturing market absorbs capital inflows with less price disruption. Thus, 
growing mainstream adoption, regulatory clarity, and Bitcoin&#8217;s increasing role 
as a hedge against inflation have bolstered its value, setting a higher price 
floor compared to 2019.
_Bitcoin 1-year realized volatility vs Bitcoin price. Source: Glassnode_
 _**Related: Bitcoin price forms two BTC futures gaps after Coinbase premium 
flips negative**_
## Bitcoin macro indicators flash bullish signals
Cointelegraph recently reported that the Macro Chain Index (MCI), a composite 
of onchain and macroeconomic metrics, flashed a buy signal for the first time 
since 2022, when it accurately predicted the market bottom at $15,500.
Historically, MCI&#8217;s RSI crossover has preceded massive rallies, such as the 
more than 500% surge in 2019. Combined with rising futures open interest and 
favorable funding rates, the MCI suggests Bitcoin could break $100,000 over 
the coming few weeks.
Anonymous crypto analyst Darkfost pointed out that Bitcoin&#8217;s network activity 
index has declined sharply, reflecting reduced transaction volume and fewer 
daily active addresses since December 2024. The drop in UTXOs further 
indicates waning demand for block space, a pattern often seen in bear markets.
_Bitcoin Network activity index. Source: CryptoQuant_
However, the analyst explained that it doesn&#8217;t confirm a bearish outlook. 
Macro indicators remain strongly bullish, suggesting this lull could be a 
strategic entry point for long-term investors.
_**Related: How much Bitcoin can Berkshire Hathaway buy?**_
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every 
investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their 
own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin price rallied 1,550% the last time the ‘BTC risk-off’ metric fell this low

## _TL;DR:_
_Not sure if you &#8216;re in a bull or bear market? This guide breaks down how to 
spot the difference using price action, volume, sentiment and onchain data. 
Learn how to recognize market cycles, what signals to watch for and how to 
adjust your strategy for each phase so you can trade smarter._
Crypto markets can feel like emotional rollercoasters, prices soaring one 
month, then crashing the next. You&#8217;re not alone if you&#8217;ve ever wondered 
whether you are in a bull or a bear market.
In the simplest terms:
 * A bull market is when prices keep going up, people are excited and there&#8217;s a general sense that the future is bright. Think back to late 2020 and early 2021; Bitcoin (BTC) climbed from around $10,000 to nearly $70,000. New projects were launching daily and it felt like everyone from your cousin to your Uber driver was buying crypto.
 * On the flip side, a bear market is when prices drop consistently, investors pull back, and sentiment sours. A good example? 2022. After hitting all-time highs, the market tumbled. Bitcoin fell below $20,000, projects collapsed (remember Terra?), and even veteran traders started discussing &#8220;building in the bear.&#8221;
Knowing what kind of market you&#8217;re in helps you make smarter moves, and that&#8217;s 
why this all matters. You don&#8217;t want to ape into memecoins during a downtrend 
or panic-sell just before a rebound.
Recognizing market phases helps you invest more strategically, manage risk and 
crucially, keep your emotions in check. Which, in crypto, is half the battle.
_**Did you know?**__In 18th-century England, &#8220;bearskin jobbers&#8221; were early 
short-sellers, traders who sold bearskins they didn&#8217;t yet own, betting prices 
would fall. The saying &#8220;don&#8217;t sell the bear&#8217;s skin before you&#8217;ve caught the 
bear&#8221; stuck, and so did the metaphor. The term bull came later, not only as 
the bear&#8217;s opposite, but also because of the upward motion of a bull&#8217;s horns 
when attacking._
## Understanding bull and bear markets
Sure, crypto is &#8220;numbers on a chart.&#8221; But, it&#8217;s also stories, headlines and 
entire communities&#8217; constantly shifting mood. Here&#8217;s how to understand bull 
and bear cycles:
### 1\. Bull market characteristics
#### a) Sustained price increases
Prices rise in a bull market, sure. What&#8217;s more important is that they keep 
rising, often over weeks or months. You&#8217;ll see major coins climbing steadily 
and altcoins riding the wave.
A textbook example? Bitcoin&#8217;s run in 2020-2021, where it jumped from ~$10,000 
to $69,000. That rally had momentum, institutional backing (Tesla, Strategy, 
etc.), and serious retail FOMO.
Or Dogecoin&#8217;s meme-fueled sprint in early 2021, going from joke status to 
$0.45 thanks to Elon tweets and Reddit hype.
#### b) Positive investor sentiment
You&#8217;ll know sentiment is bullish when X feels euphoric, everyone&#8217;s calling for 
a BTC moonshot and new projects are launching daily with sky-high valuations. 
Money flows in fast, and even risky bets feel like obvious plays. That&#8217;s when 
you know that positive investor sentiment is in the air.
#### c) Favorable economic indicators
Bull runs often line up with low interest rates, easy access to credit and 
generally tech-friendly conditions. During the 2020 bull, for instance, 
pandemic-era stimulus checks and low borrowing costs gave retail and 
institutional investors more ammo to deploy into digital assets.
### 2\. Bear market characteristics
#### a) Prolonged price declines
Bear markets will drag on until the cows come home. Prices fall, then fall 
some more, and every slight bounce is sold off. Think 2018&#8217;s &#8220;crypto winter,&#8221; 
when Bitcoin crashed from $20,000 to around $3,000.
Or 2022&#8217;s brutal downturn, when BTC dropped from $69,000 to under $20,000. 
That crash wasn&#8217;t really about price either; it was fuelled by implosions like 
Terra-Luna, Celsius and the FTX scandal. The dominoes just kept falling.
Bear markets tend to feel like the party&#8217;s over.
#### b) Negative investor sentiment
During bear phases, fear takes over. Headlines turn grim, social media goes 
quiet and even die-hard believers start questioning their convictions. Funding 
dries up, dev teams go silent and &#8220;exit liquidity&#8221; jokes make the rounds.
#### c) Adverse economic conditions
Macro headwinds don&#8217;t help. High interest rates, inflation fears or tightening 
monetary policy often make things worse. In 2022, for example, the Fed&#8217;s 
aggressive rate hikes made risk assets, including crypto, far less appealing.
## Key indicators to identify market phases
While no single metric can give you 100% certainty, there are a handful of 
time-tested indicators that traders and analysts rely on. Let&#8217;s break down the 
indicators you can use, aside from the obvious one (price).
### Trading volume
Volume tells you how much conviction is behind the price moves.
In a bull market, rising prices are often backed by strong trading volume. 
More buyers step in, more liquidity enters the market and the rally feels 
supported.
During a bear market, volume tends to dry up. Price drops are met with weak 
buying pressure and it can feel like no one wants to touch the market.
Low volume plus a declining price? Not a great sign if you&#8217;re hoping for a 
bounce.
_**Did you know?**__During the 2021 bull run, Dogecoin experienced a surge in 
trading volume, with nearly $70 billion traded in a single day as its price 
soared to $0.45_
### Market sentiment
One tool many investors rely on is the Crypto Fear &amp; Greed Index. It measures 
social media activity, volatility, Google search trends and more to gauge 
whether investors feel optimistic (greedy) or pessimistic (fearful).
Extreme greed often pops up near the top.
Extreme fear tends to appear near the bottom, though it can hang around in 
deeper downturns.
Check it daily, but don&#8217;t let it drive your whole strategy. It&#8217;s a mood ring, 
not a crystal ball.
### Technical indicators
You don&#8217;t have to be a chart wizard to spot a few helpful signals.
 * **Moving averages:** When the price is consistently above the 200-day moving average, it&#8217;s generally bullish. When it dips below, that&#8217;s often a warning sign. These are long-term trend indicators, not day-trading tools.
 * **Relative strength index (RSI):** This measures whether an asset is overbought or oversold: Readings above 70 suggest it&#8217;s overheated and due for a pullback, while readings below 30 may indicate it&#8217;s oversold with potential to bounce.
None of this is gospel, but it helps you get a feel for momentum.
### Fundamental factors
Sometimes the biggest market movers don&#8217;t show up on a chart.
**Bullish signs might include:**
 * Big-name institutional adoption (like BlackRock applying for a Bitcoin ETF).
 * Friendly regulatory news or court wins for crypto firms.
 * Major tech milestones (think Ethereum upgrades or layer-2 rollouts).
**Meanwhile, bearish signs often look like:**
 * Regulatory crackdowns (the SEC targeting major exchanges).
 * High-profile security breaches or protocol failures.
 * Global instability &#8212; inflation, war or financial contagion.
Once you know what to look for, the next step is figuring out where. 
Fortunately, crypto comes with a treasure trove of free tools if you know 
where to dig.
### Charting platforms
 If you want to understand price action, you need solid charts.
 * TradingView is known for customizable charts and technical indicators.
 * Cointelegraph offers clear overviews of prices, market caps and volume trends that are especially useful for tracking newer or smaller tokens.
_**Did you know?**__TradingView &#8216;s charting tools are integrated directly into 
many of the world&#8217;s top crypto exchanges, including Binance, Bybit, OKX, and 
Bitget. _
### Sentiment analysis
Crypto is more mood than math.
Tools like LunarCrush track social media activity, influencer buzz and 
trending tokens. If Dogecoin starts heating up again, you&#8217;ll probably see the 
early signs there.
### Onchain data
Want to know what the whales are doing? Platforms like Glassnode and 
CryptoQuant surface data like wallet flows, miner activity and exchange 
balances. It&#8217;s like reading the blockchain&#8217;s heartbeat. You&#8217;ll often spot 
capital shifts before they show up in the price.
## Strategies for navigating different market conditions
Understanding the cycle is one thing. Knowing how to act on it is another. 
Your playbook should change depending on whether you&#8217;re riding a bull or 
surviving a bear.
## Bull market strategies
 * **Trend following:** When the market&#8217;s running hot, sometimes the best move is to go with the flow, but stay disciplined. Focus on assets in strong uptrends, and don&#8217;t get caught chasing green candles without a plan.
 * **Profit-taking:** Set targets and honor them. It&#8217;s easy to get greedy when everything&#8217;s pumping, but taking profits on the way up helps you avoid the dreaded round trip: watching your gains vanish in the next drawdown.
 * **Risk management:** Even bull markets pull back. Use stop-losses or trailing stops to lock in gains and guard against surprise reversals. You&#8217;ll thank yourself later.
## Bear market strategies
 * **Defensive positioning:** Sometimes, the smartest trade is no trade. Moving part of your portfolio into stablecoins or sticking to less volatile assets like Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) can help preserve capital while others panic.
 * **Dollar-cost averaging (DCA):** Trying to time the exact bottom? Good luck. DCA smooths the ride by spreading your entries over time, lowering your average cost and helping you stay engaged without overcommitting.
 * **Focus on fundamentals:** Bear markets strip away the noise. What survives are the projects with real use, strong teams and long-term vision. If you&#8217;re holding through a downturn, ensure you&#8217;re holding for the right reasons.
## By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail
Bull or bear, crypto never stops moving, but that doesn&#8217;t mean you have to 
react to every swing. Price trends, sentiment shifts, volume patterns and 
fundamentals can all clue you in on where you are in the cycle. Armed with the 
right tools and a calm mindset, you can tune out the noise and act with 
clarity.
Markets reward preparation, and knowing whether you&#8217;re in bull territory or 
bear country is one of the most powerful tools you can have.
Happy trading!
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every 
investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their 
own research when making a decision.

Is it a bull or bear market? How to tell the difference

Bitcoin maxis say, &#8220;Never sell your Bitcoin.&#8221; They repeat it when the market 
crashes to urge people not to dump their BTC in a loss out of panic and fear. 
They repeat it when the price is going up because…