Shardeum has unveiled its mainnet after a testnet phase that attracted more than 1.4 million participants from across the globe, setting a new record for Layer 1 testnet validator nodes. According to the official press release sent to crypto.news, the…

Shardeum mainnet goes live after record-breaking validator testnet participation

New Hampshire has become the first U.S. state to authorize its treasurer to 
invest public funds in Bitcoin and other digital assets, marking a significant 
milestone for crypto policy at the state level. Governor Kelly Ayotte signed 
House Bill 302…

New Hampshire becomes first state to authorize Bitcoin and crypto investments

New Hampshire&#8217;s move may inspire other states to diversify reserves with 
digital assets, potentially reshaping state treasury strategies nationwide.
The post New Hampshire passes first bill to establish Bitcoin reserve appeared 
first on Crypto Briefing.

New Hampshire passes first bill to establish Bitcoin reserve

At Sui Basecamp, macro investor and Real Vision co-founder Raoul Pal delivered 
a characteristically sweeping address that framed the current crypto market 
environment as the beginning of what he called a “liquidity-driven supercycle” 
— with Bitcoin potentially reaching $450,000 before the end of it. Drawing 
from over three decades of macroeconomic research, Pal outlined his thesis 
through the lens of what he terms the “Everything Code,” a framework that 
centers on global liquidity, debt cycles, and currency debasement as the core 
forces shaping asset prices across all markets. Why $450,000 Bitcoin Is 
Possible? “Bitcoin’s year-on-year rate of change is driven by financial 
conditions with a three-month lag,” said Pal, pointing to the remarkably 
consistent correlation between total global liquidity and the price action of 
major assets. “The correlation between Bitcoin and global liquidity is 90%, 
and with the Nasdaq, it&#8217;s 95%. It’s hard to refute that this is not what is 
happening.” According to Pal, this correlation is not incidental — it is 
structurally tied to how the modern macro system operates, especially in a 
post-2008 world characterized by chronic debt overhang and systematic 
liquidity injections. Pal emphasized that most people misunderstand the true 
driver of crypto cycles. “Everyone talks about the halving, but this is about 
the debt refi cycle. Every four years, global debt rolls over, and central 
banks are forced to pump liquidity to avoid systemic collapse.” He added that 
the average maturity of global debt is four years, concentrated in the three- 
to five-year sector, which naturally produces cyclical liquidity waves that 
coincide with market booms in crypto. The mechanism, Pal argued, is a global 
financial shell game: “Scarce assets keep going up in price — real estate, 
equities, art, gold. Young people can’t afford them. What’s actually happening 
is a global taxation of 8% a year you don’t understand. Add in another 3% 
global inflation, and you’re looking at 11% debasement.” In this context, 
Bitcoin — with its fixed supply and decentralized nature — becomes, in Pal’s 
view, a rational escape valve for capital. Related Reading: Bitcoin Recovery 
Fueled By Almost $19 Billion In Crypto Inflows, Data Shows Notably, Pal 
referred to Bitcoin as the single best-performing asset in all of financial 
history, citing a 27.5 million percent return since 2012 and an average 
annualized return of 130%, despite massive drawdowns. “Nothing has ever come 
close,” he said, before comparing its performance to that of Ethereum (113%) 
and Solana (142%), with the caveat that Solana’s data covers a shorter 
timeframe. While some of his statements may appear hyperbolic, Pal backed them 
with a detailed macro analysis and time-tested indicators. He invoked his use 
of Demark indicators — a technical analysis tool — which flagged significant 
market turning points in prior cycles, and are now suggesting a breakout 
continuation for Bitcoin. According to his models, should the ISM (Institute 
for Supply Management) Manufacturing Index reach a level of 57, Bitcoin could 
be fairly priced at $450,000. “Is it exact? No. But all the people who are 
saying it’s going to $150K or $250K are probably scarred from the last cycle,” 
Pal argued, stressing the importance of forward-looking data. Related Reading: 
Bitcoin Price Faces Stiff Resistance: Is Another Drop on the Horizon? He also 
dismissed current bearish sentiment as misguided and backward-looking: “People 
are creating narratives for today to explain liquidity conditions from three 
months ago,” he said, criticizing popular economic commentary on platforms 
like X. To Pal, the market has already priced in recent economic weakness — 
including fears surrounding tariffs, the slowing economy, and geopolitical 
tensions — and is beginning to pivot toward the next liquidity expansion 
phase. “Bitcoin’s already priced it down to 47.4 on the business cycle 
indicator,” he said, referencing data that had only just come out the day 
before. “But financial conditions lead by nine months, and they’re turning.” 
When Will BTC Peak? Pal’s broader view is that we are now entering “the banana 
zone,” his term for the high-velocity portion of the crypto cycle where prices 
move sharply upward. “Every cycle looks the same. Breakout, retest, banana 
zone. We’ve had banana one, the corrective zone, banana two. What’s next is 
banana three.” He believes the current setup is unusually strong due to a 
confluence of factors: synchronized global liquidity expansion, a weakening 
dollar, central banks beginning to ease, and retail plus institutional 
underexposure to risk assets. As he concluded his speech, Pal reinforced his 
thesis with urgency but caution: “We’ve got the central banks debasing 
currency, giving us a gigantic tailwind. They don’t want the system to break. 
Every time something happens, they inject more liquidity. They’re giving you 
free money. And to take that money, you need the volatility.” He warned 
against overtrading, using leverage, or panicking during inevitable 
corrections. “Don’t f*** this up,” he said, referencing his own past mistakes 
during the 2017 bull run. “Hold on to your tokens. Be careful. Don’t get FOMO. 
Follow the liquidity.” Pal expects this cycle to extend potentially into Q1 or 
Q2 of 2026, especially if political dynamics around a possible Trump re- 
election push the liquidity cycle even further. Whether Bitcoin ultimately 
reaches $450,000 remains to be seen, but Pal’s thesis is clear: the macro 
tailwinds are aligned, the data supports it, and this may be — as he puts it — 
“the greatest macro opportunity of all time.” At press time, BTC traded at 
$94,191. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Raoul Pal: Bitcoin Could Hit $450,000 In Liquidity-Driven Supercycle

DeFi Development Corp. purchased $11.2 million worth of Solana ( SOL) tokens 
on May 6, 2025, increasing its total holdings to 400,091 SOL, valued at 
approximately $58.5 million. DeFi Development Corp. Bolsters Treasury with 
82,404 Additional Solana Tokens The Boca Raton-based company acquired roughly 
82,404.50 SOL tokens, according to a regulatory filing. Its total holdings, 
[…]

DeFi Development Corp. Expands Solana Treasury to 400,091 Tokens

**Key Takeaways:**
 * The Bitcoin Risk-Off signal dropped to 23.7, its lowest since March 2019, indicating low correction risk and a high likelihood of a bullish trend developing.
 * Despite the recent decline in network activity, bullish macro indicators like the Macro Chain Index (MCI) suggest Bitcoin could soon rally above $100,000.
On May 5, the Bitcoin Risk-Off signal, an indicator that uses onchain and 
exchange data to assess correction risk, dropped to its lowest level (23.7) 
for the first time since March 27, 2019, when Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $4,000. 
The signal is currently in the blue zone, which historically suggests low 
correction risk and a high probability of a bullish trend. When the oscillator 
rises above 60 or turns red, it implies a high risk of bearish movement.
_Bitcoin Risk-Off signal indicator. Source: CryptoQuant_
In 2019, the same signal preceded a staggering 1,550% rally that saw Bitcoin 
soar above $68,000 in 2021.
Data from CryptoQuant indicates that the Risk-Off signal combines six metrics: 
downside and upside volatility, exchange inflows, funding rates, futures open 
interest, and market capitalization. Collectively, they provide a balanced 
view of correction risk, making the signal a data-oriented gauge for market 
trends.
The last time the Risk-Off Signal indicated a low-risk investment environment, 
Bitcoin was valued at $4,000. Several factors can explain the price disparity.
The launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US in 2024 
opened the floodgates to institutional capital, boosting demand and 
stabilizing prices. In fact, ETFs and public companies now hold 9% of the 
Bitcoin supply.
&gt; 🚨LATEST: ETFs and public companies now hold 9% of Bitcoin&#8217;s supply! Spot 
&gt; ETFs own 5.5% just 1 year after launch, while public firms like Strategy 
&gt; hold 3.5%. Institutional adoption is reshaping $BTC&#8217;s market&#8211;less supply, 
&gt; shifting dynamics. 👀👀 
&gt; 
&gt; (h/t: @ecoinometrics ) pic.twitter.com/iC892RveP2 
&gt; 
&gt; &#8212; Cointelegraph Markets &amp; Research (@CointelegraphMT) May 3, 2025
Data from Fidelity Digital Assets noted that Bitcoin&#8217;s volatility has 
decreased three to four times that of equity indexes, down from triple-digit 
volatility in its early years, as illustrated in the chart below. Between 2019 
and 2025, the 1-year annualized realized volatility dropped by more than 80%.
This maturing market absorbs capital inflows with less price disruption. Thus, 
growing mainstream adoption, regulatory clarity, and Bitcoin&#8217;s increasing role 
as a hedge against inflation have bolstered its value, setting a higher price 
floor compared to 2019.
_Bitcoin 1-year realized volatility vs Bitcoin price. Source: Glassnode_
 _**Related: Bitcoin price forms two BTC futures gaps after Coinbase premium 
flips negative**_
## Bitcoin macro indicators flash bullish signals
Cointelegraph recently reported that the Macro Chain Index (MCI), a composite 
of onchain and macroeconomic metrics, flashed a buy signal for the first time 
since 2022, when it accurately predicted the market bottom at $15,500.
Historically, MCI&#8217;s RSI crossover has preceded massive rallies, such as the 
more than 500% surge in 2019. Combined with rising futures open interest and 
favorable funding rates, the MCI suggests Bitcoin could break $100,000 over 
the coming few weeks.
Anonymous crypto analyst Darkfost pointed out that Bitcoin&#8217;s network activity 
index has declined sharply, reflecting reduced transaction volume and fewer 
daily active addresses since December 2024. The drop in UTXOs further 
indicates waning demand for block space, a pattern often seen in bear markets.
_Bitcoin Network activity index. Source: CryptoQuant_
However, the analyst explained that it doesn&#8217;t confirm a bearish outlook. 
Macro indicators remain strongly bullish, suggesting this lull could be a 
strategic entry point for long-term investors.
_**Related: How much Bitcoin can Berkshire Hathaway buy?**_
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every 
investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their 
own research when making a decision.