The UK government has unveiled comprehensive draft legislation aimed at regulating cryptocurrency exchanges, dealers, and agents. Announced by Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves during UK Fintech Week, the proposed rules aim to enhance consumer protection, boost investor confidence, and…

‘Massive year for crypto in the U.K.’: London unveils sweeping crypto rules, eyes regulatory ties with USA

**Key points:**
 * Weak labor and consumer data often precede Bitcoin rallies, leading some analysts to anticipate future economic stimulus programs.
 * Job openings fell to 7.2 million in March versus the 7.5 million forecast and consumer confidence hit its lowest level since January 2021.
 * If past patterns hold, Bitcoin could rally by mid-July and possibly reach $140,000 by October 2025.
Macroeconomic conditions have long been seen as a major influence on 
cryptocurrency prices. Generally, Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins perform poorly 
when investors fear that employment and consumer data are weakening.
According to a US Labor Department JOLTS report released on April 29, job 
openings in March approached their lowest levels in four years. US employers 
posted 7.2 million vacancies in March, below the 7.5 million that economists 
had forecast. Meanwhile, US consumer confidence fell for the fifth straight 
month in April, reaching its lowest point since January 2021.
_US Consumer Confidence (left) vs. Total non-farm US job openings (right). 
Source: TradingView/Cointelegraph_
Worsening conditions raise the chances that central banks will introduce 
economic stimulus measures, making the overall impact on cryptocurrency 
markets uncertain. Typically, the additional liquidity encourages investment 
in risk-on assets like Bitcoin, as more capital flows into the economy.
## Future expectations matter more than today&#8217;s weak economic data
The last time the US experienced a drop in job openings and weakening consumer 
confidence was between January and June 2024. In the three months that 
followed, Bitcoin&#8217;s price moved between $53,000 and $66,000. Then, a 60% rally 
began in mid-October, pushing BTC above $100,000. The final result was 
positive, but it took more than 105 days for this effect to show in the 
cryptocurrency market.
_Bitcoin/USD, log scale. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph_
Although these conditions may seem worrying at first, weaker labor and 
consumer sentiment are usually backward-looking. Financial markets and 
companies base their decisions on expectations for future economic growth, 
rather than just past data. Also, improved sentiment among crypto investors 
tends to come after there is some confirmation of better macroeconomic 
conditions. This explains why the 105-day lag is not unusual.
Before 2024, a similar situation occurred between January and June 2023, with 
declines in both job market data and consumer confidence. The next four months 
were difficult, as Bitcoin&#8217;s price fell 18% to $25,000. It took 115 days for 
the price to recover to $30,500 by late October. However, the following two 
months were very positive, with BTC gaining 45% to reach $43,900.
_Bitcoin/USD in 2020, log scale. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph_
The last time in the past eight years when both the labor market and consumer 
confidence suffered significantly was between February 2020 and May 2020, 
right after the implementation of the COVID-19 lockdowns. This period saw 
Bitcoin briefly drop below $4,000 on March 13, 2020. As a result, a longer 
period of consolidation was expected before investors regained confidence in 
the crypto markets.
_**Related:**__**Bitcoin acts like &#8216;store of value that it is&#8217; amid Trump 
policy chaos: NYDIG**_
## Could Bitcoin hit $140,000 by October?
Looking back at the macroeconomic data, there was no major impact on Bitcoin 
between May 2020 and September 2020, as its price increased from $8,900 to 
$10,600, a 20% gain. However, the next 60 days brought an impressive 85% rally 
to $19,700. For the third time, weaker labor and consumer sentiment data 
seemed to come before a rally in Bitcoin prices.
While the time between the lowest point of economic conditions and Bitcoin&#8217;s 
rally ranged from 105 to 130 days, the result was clear in all three cases. 
Therefore, if US job openings and consumer confidence improve from April 2025, 
it is likely that Bitcoin&#8217;s price will start to rise by mid-July. If history 
repeats itself, this could mean a minimum target of $140,000 by October 2025, 
but further positive macroeconomic data is needed to confirm this outlook.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and 
should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and 
opinions expressed here are the author&#8217;s alone and do not necessarily reflect 
or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Labor pain, crypto gain — How weak JOLTS data sets path for Bitcoin price to rally

Chainlink (LINK) is currently consolidating around the $15 level, as bulls 
attempt to reclaim higher ground after a volatile yet promising few weeks. 
Despite facing stiff resistance near this zone, LINK continues to show 
strength amid a broader market rebound, holding steady while many other 
altcoins experience mixed performance. Related Reading: Ethereum Shows 4H 
Bearish Divergence – Can Bulls Hold $1,750? The asset is now up over 50% from 
its April lows, suggesting that bullish momentum is building beneath the 
surface. Market participants are closely watching for signs of a breakout, 
especially as the overall crypto market heats up and investors rotate capital 
back into high-potential altcoins. Adding to the optimism, top analyst Ali 
Martínez shared a technical chart indicating that the SuperTrend indicator has 
just flashed a buy signal on Chainlink’s daily chart. This indicator is often 
viewed as a reliable tool for identifying the start of new bullish phases or 
trend reversals. A confirmation of this signal could set the stage for further 
gains if bulls manage to clear the current resistance. As the market awaits 
clarity, LINK’s ability to hold its current level and potentially break higher 
may set the tone for its next significant move, possibly reigniting a long- 
awaited rally for the popular oracle protocol. Chainlink Eyes Breakout as 
Momentum Builds Chainlink has been range-bound between $10 and $16 since 
March, consolidating after a volatile start to the year. Despite the sideways 
action, market participants are increasingly focused on the potential for a 
breakout as LINK presses against its key resistance level around $16. A 
sustained move above this barrier could trigger a strong upside move, 
especially if accompanied by a broader altcoin rally. The current setup comes 
amid high-risk macroeconomic conditions. Global tensions continue to rise, 
particularly between the US and China, where escalating tariffs and trade 
disputes have sparked fears of a global recession. Such a backdrop adds a 
layer of caution to any bullish outlook, as risk assets remain vulnerable to 
sudden shifts in investor sentiment. Nevertheless, optimism for Chainlink has 
grown after Ali Martínez pointed out that the SuperTrend indicator has flashed 
a buy signal on LINK’s daily chart. This technical tool is often used to 
detect early trend reversals or sustained shifts in market direction. When it 
appears after a prolonged consolidation, as it has now, it can signal that 
bullish momentum is about to accelerate. If bulls manage to reclaim and hold 
levels above $16, it could confirm a trend change and potentially send LINK 
surging toward new 2024 highs. Still, until the price breakouts, the range 
remains in play—and so does the risk of another rejection. Related Reading: 
Solana Forms Textbook Cup And Handle Pattern – Massive Breakout Ahead? LINK 
Price Analysis: Key Levels Chainlink is currently trading at $15.10, gradually 
climbing toward the critical $16 resistance level. This zone has acted as a 
ceiling throughout April and May, and bulls now face a pivotal test. 
Reclaiming and holding above $16 would not only break the multi-week range but 
also set the stage for a possible breakout if momentum continues to build. The 
technical picture highlights the importance of the 200-day moving average (MA) 
and exponential moving average (EMA), both clustered in the $16–$17 range. 
These trend indicators have served as dynamic resistance in recent months, and 
a clean push above them could confirm a bullish reversal and open the path 
toward higher targets. However, the structure remains fragile, and failure to 
maintain strength could put LINK at risk of a deeper pullback. If the $14 
support level breaks, selling pressure may accelerate, potentially dragging 
the price toward lower demand zones around $12 or even $10. Related Reading: 
Ethereum Reclaims Local Range Against BTC – Can Bulls Target The Range High? 
As the broader market heats up and speculative appetite returns, LINK&#8217;s 
positioning around this key resistance will likely determine its short-term 
trend. A decisive move in either direction could shape the price action 
heading into the next few weeks. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from 
TradingView

Chainlink Flashes Daily Buy Signal – Breakout Next?

Canada’s Conservative party leader Pierre Poilievre was poised to win the 
election by a landslide, until U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to annex 
the country. Mark Carney Assumes Power After Trump Took Center Stage in 
Canada’s Federal Election Mark Carney, the shadowy former governor of Canada’s 
central bank, was elected as Prime Minister on Monday […]

Canadians Elect Central Banker Mark Carney as Prime Minister After Trump’s Antics Upend Country’s Conservatives

Bettors on prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi are flipping bearish on 
the US economy. As of April 29, both platforms are predicting that the US will 
log an economic contraction during the first quarter of 2025 in an upcoming 
economic data release.
The US has logged positive growth figures every quarter since 2022, and a 
reversal in that trend could mark the start of a recession.
The pessimistic outlook marks a stark sentiment shift for prediction markets, 
which had recently anticipated a positive US growth report. On April 29, 
consensus Q1 US growth estimates on Kalshi, a US derivatives exchange, plunged 
from around 0.5% to -0.4% in less than 24 hours.
Meanwhile, Polymarket bettors are setting the odds of a US economic 
contraction in Q1 at around 70%. On April 28, they still had a mostly 
favorable outlook.
The shift comes one day after Canada, America&#8217;s second-largest trading 
partner, elected Liberal Mark Carney as prime minister. Carney has vowed to 
take a more hawkish stance in Canada&#8217;s ongoing trade war with the US.
_Bettors on Kalshi now expect a negative US GDP print. Source:__Kalshi_
 _**Related:**__**Analysts brace for Bitcoin slide on gloomy US manufacturing 
data**_
The markets are pegged to the outcome of an April 30 report by the US Bureau 
of Economic Analysis, which issues official measures of America&#8217;s gross 
domestic product (GDP).
The report will provide the clearest view yet into the impact of US President 
Donald Trump&#8217;s controversial trade policies.
Prediction markets work by letting users trade contracts tied to specific 
events, with prices fluctuating dynamically based on expected outcomes.
In 2024, event contracts proved to be as reliable as traditional polling, 
forecasting not only Trump&#8217;s election win but also his party&#8217;s sweep of the US 
House and Senate.
_Polymarket &#8216;s US GDP growth wagers. Source: __Polymarket_
## Tariff turmoil
On April 2, Trump announced plans to place sweeping tariffs on US imports. The 
president has since paused the rollout of tariffs on certain countries, but 
the prospect of a global trade war still looms.
The macroeconomic uncertainty has already weighed on US economic data.
In April, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index &#8212; a monthly 
survey of 250 US-based manufacturers &#8212; reported the sharpest declines in 
activity since 2020.
Analysts said factories are bracing for the impact of Trump&#8217;s tariff plans, 
which could potentially raise production costs for manufacturers.
_**Magazine: **__**Memecoin degeneracy is funding groundbreaking anti-aging 
research**_

Betting markets’ Q1 US GDP forecast flips negative amid tariff turmoil

US Senate Majority Leader John Thune reportedly told Republican lawmakers that 
the chamber would address a bill on stablecoin regulation before the May 26 
Memorial Day holiday.
According to an April 29 Politico report, Thune made the comments in a closed- 
door meeting with Republican senators, who hold a slim majority in the 
chamber. The Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins, 
or GENIUS Act, was introduced by Senator Bill Hagerty in February and passed 
the Senate Banking Committee in March.
Thune did not mention any crypto or blockchain-related bills in his public 
comments on US President Donald Trump&#8217;s first 100 days in office. Since his 
Jan. 20 inauguration, Trump has signed several executive orders with the 
potential to affect US crypto policy, including one affecting stablecoins. 
Still, many of the actions do not carry the force of law without an act of 
Congress.
_**Related:**__**$649B stablecoin transfers linked to illicit activity in 
2024: Report**_
The proposed GENIUS bill could essentially restrict any entity other than a 
&#8220;permitted payment stablecoin issuer&#8221; from issuing a payment stablecoin in the 
United States. The House of Representatives, also controlled by Republicans, 
has proposed a companion bill to the legislation: the Stablecoin Transparency 
and Accountability for a Better Ledger Economy, or STABLE Act.
## Trump accused of conflicts of interest over stablecoins, crypto ventures
The president&#8217;s executive order, signed on Jan. 23, established a working 
group to study the potential creation and maintenance of a national crypto 
stockpile and a regulatory framework for stablecoins. Republican lawmakers 
followed by introducing the STABLE and GENIUS acts.
Trump also introduced the order before World Liberty Financial, a crypto firm 
backed by the president&#8217;s family, launched its US-dollar pegged USD1 
stablecoin. Many Democratic lawmakers said that Trump&#8217;s ties to the firm, 
coupled with his political influence and position, could present an 
&#8220;extraordinary conflict of interest that could create unprecedented risks to 
our financial system&#8221; as Congress considers the two stablecoin bills.
_**Magazine:**__**Trump &#8216;s crypto ventures raise conflict of interest, insider 
trading questions**_