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money is shifting as […]

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Solana failed to settle above $145 and nosedived. SOL price is now 
consolidating losses below $135 and might decline further below $130. SOL 
price started a fresh decline below $138 and $135 against the US Dollar. The 
price is now trading below $135 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. 
There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $140 on the 
hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The price could 
start a recovery wave if the bulls defend $132 or $130. Solana Price Dips 
Again Solana price failed to remain stable above $142 and started a fresh 
decline, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. SOL declined below the $140 and $138 
support levels. The price gained bearish momentum below $135. A low was formed 
at $130, and the price is now consolidating losses. The price recovered a few 
points and climbed above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move 
from the $143 swing high to the $130 low. Solana is now trading below $135 and 
the 100-hourly simple moving average. On the upside, immediate resistance is 
near the $135 level. The next major resistance is near the $136 level or the 
50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $143 swing high to the 
$130 low. The main resistance could be $140. There is also a key bearish trend 
line forming with resistance at $140 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair. 
A successful close above the $140 resistance zone could set the pace for 
another steady increase. The next key resistance is $144. Any more gains might 
send the price toward the $150 level. Another Decline In SOL? If SOL fails to 
rise above the $136 resistance, it could continue to move down. Initial 
support on the downside is near the $132 zone. The first major support is near 
the $130 level. A break below the $130 level might send the price toward the 
$122 support zone. If there is a close below the $122 support, the price could 
decline toward the $115 support in the near term. Technical Indicators Hourly 
MACD – The MACD for SOL/USD is gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly Hours 
RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for SOL/USD is below the 50 level. 
Major Support Levels – $132 and $130. Major Resistance Levels – $136 and $140.

Solana (SOL) Loses Its Footing, Setting the Stage for Another Dive

Bitcoin is down 36% from its recent peak, and the “bear market” label is 
already circulating across crypto X. But in a thread on Sunday, trader 
Cristian Chifoi argues that calling a regime shift on the drawdown alone 
misses the more tradable signal: what happens after the first meaningful 
rebound, and how price behaves around a tight set of time-based “seasonality 
windows.” Chifoi’s core claim is that many commentators default to reactive 
narratives after volatility has already printed. “The simplest way to 
determine if the Bitcoin bear market has started is not after we had a 36% 
correction, as all of crypto analysts online suggest,” he wrote. “The same 
analysts that suggested a supercycle in November 2021 on, while the price was 
pumping 100%+.” In his framing, the bear-market question is less about the 
magnitude of the drop and more about whether any bounce that follows looks 
like strength or a structurally weak countertrend move that fails over time. 
Is Bitcoin In A Bear Market? Chifoi’s first lens is a cross-check between 
Bitcoin and USDT dominance (USDT.D), which he describes as an “inverted BTC 
chart” used as a confluence signal. He also emphasizes timing as the primary 
indicator, arguing the drawdown has already met a minimum duration he tracks 
across cycles. Related Reading: Bitcoin Tailwind: Cathie Wood Sees 
‘Reaganomics On Steroids’ Ahead “If you are a trader or not, I also suggest 
you use time as your first indicator, and price as the second,” he wrote. “We 
had a 77 day correction from top to bottom already. The price couldn&#8217;t get 
lower. That is the signal, rest is noise.” From there, his bear-market 
confirmation playbook hinges on how far Bitcoin can bounce and how long it can 
sustain momentum. He outlines USDT.D targets: first around 5.5%, then lower 
levels like 4.7% and maps them to potential BTC levels. A push “lil’ over 
100k,” he said, could still qualify as a “dead cat bounce” if it persists for 
weeks without follow-through. In that case, the bounce itself becomes evidence 
of weakness rather than a green light for a renewed uptrend. His second 
scenario is more uncomfortable for both “cycle is dead” skeptics and early- 
bear callers: Bitcoin makes a higher high, potentially into the 
$115,000–$120,000 range, but then stalls out over a multi-week window. Even 
that, in Chifoi’s view, could be consistent with a bear-market transition if 
time passes and price cannot “deliver more gains,” turning a nominal breakout 
into a distribution-like top. “It is the same game!” he added, arguing that 
traders should be watching for the same failure mode at different price levels 
rather than anchoring to a single number. Chifoi’s second framework is 
seasonality, centered on a window around January 20 (plus or minus a few days) 
extending into late March or early April. He says he has been tracking this as 
a primary decision point since the start of 2026, and frames it as a fork 
between two paths: either Bitcoin rallies into that date to set a pivot high 
and roll over, or it forms a pivot low around that date and then pushes higher 
into the next time pivot. “A pump into the January 20, over $100-$110k would 
mean a pivot high and the continuation down into next time pivot,” he wrote. 
The alternative, he said, is “January 20 pivot low, and then continuation up 
to next time pivot,” adding he is watching this week’s price action “until 
Friday” for confirmation. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Take 
Profits: 41,800 BTC Sent To Exchanges At the time of writing, Chifoi leans 
toward the latter interpretation. “For now it seems pretty clear that we are 
developing a pivot low, and the next move is the opposite one versus what we 
had from October 6th until now,” he said. Chifoi positions most market 
participants into two “camps”: those calling for a supercycle or declaring the 
cycle framework broken, and those asserting a bear market began in October and 
ends in October 2026 “just like 2022.” He argues both could get forced into 
poor positioning if Bitcoin prints a new high in the coming weeks before 
selling off after April. His own risk case is broader and more time-focused: a 
new high followed by a sustained decline into late 2026 or early 2027, which 
he calls his “next important time pivot.” In that context, the operational 
takeaway is less about predicting a bear market today and more about letting 
the next rebound and the January-to-spring window define whether this is a 
reset inside a broader uptrend or the start of a longer distribution-to- 
downtrend transition. “Pay attention these next few weeks,” Chifoi wrote. “I 
do not know what will happen, but the plan is already set up and will adapt my 
positioning accordingly, whichever scenario plays out, because I already know 
what to do in either of the cases.” At press time, BTC traded at $92,836. 
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Is Bitcoin Really In A Bear Market? Why January 20 Matters

A security researcher claims Ethereum’s recent network surge could be linked 
to address poisoning attacks that are exploiting low gas fees on Ethereum.

Cryptocurrency price in USD