Bitcoin is struggling to hold the $70,000 level as persistent selling pressure 
weighs on market sentiment and momentum. After months of volatility, recent 
price action suggests a fragile structure, with buyers repeatedly failing to 
reclaim higher resistance zones. Analysts increasingly warn that downside 
risks remain elevated as short-term investors continue to absorb losses rather 
than stepping in aggressively to accumulate. Related Reading: Are We Near A 
Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom? History Offers A Framework A recent report from 
analyst Axel Adler highlights mounting stress among short-term holders. Data 
from the Bitcoin Short-Term Holders SOPR indicator shows that many 
participants are now realizing losses, with this cohort sitting roughly 25% 
below their average acquisition cost. The SOPR metric, which compares selling 
price to purchase price, has dropped to 0.949, while its 7-day average remains 
near 0.97. Values below 1.0 confirm that coins are being sold at a loss, often 
reflecting forced liquidations or reactive selling behavior. Notably, the 
indicator has stayed below this threshold since mid-January, signaling 
sustained pressure rather than a short-lived correction. Historically, 
prolonged SOPR weakness alongside price stabilization can indicate seller 
exhaustion. However, a decisive move back above 1.0 would be required to 
confirm a shift in market regime. Until then, the risk of further downside 
cannot be ruled out. Short-Term Holder MVRV Signals Deep Unrealized Losses 
Axel Adler also points to the Bitcoin Short-Term Holder MVRV indicator as 
further evidence of mounting stress among recent market participants. This 
metric compares the current market price with the average acquisition price of 
short-term holders, offering a clear view of unrealized profitability. When 
MVRV falls below 1.0, it indicates that this cohort is, on average, holding 
positions at a loss rather than in profit. Recent data shows the STH MVRV 
dropping sharply to around 0.752, with the cohort’s realized price near 
$95,400. With Bitcoin trading close to $71,700, short-term holders are roughly 
25% underwater. The gap between market price and their cost basis—about 
$23,700—is currently the widest observed in this cycle, highlighting the scale 
of recent downside pressure. Historically, MVRV readings approaching or 
falling below the 0.8 level have often coincided with accumulation phases or 
local market bottoms. However, such signals are not sufficient on their own. 
Confirmation typically requires price stabilization alongside a recovery in 
SOPR above 1.0, indicating that forced selling has eased. Until those 
conditions emerge, the data suggests continued fragility despite increasing 
signs of capitulation. Related Reading: Ethereum Transfer Surge Mirrors 2018 
And 2021 Peaks – What Happens Next? Bitcoin Breaks Key Weekly Support As 
Downtrend Accelerates Bitcoin’s weekly structure shows clear deterioration 
after price decisively broke below the mid-range support that had previously 
held near the $75K area. The latest candle reflects strong downside momentum, 
pushing BTC toward the $70K zone while trading well below the 50-week moving 
average. Historically, sustained trading under this average tends to coincide 
with corrective or transitional bear phases rather than bullish continuation. 
The 100-week moving average, currently positioned slightly above $80K, has 
shifted from support to resistance. The market requires a reclaim of this 
level to stabilize sentiment. Meanwhile, the 200-week average continues to 
trend upward near the $55K–$60K region, marking a deeper macro support band if 
selling pressure persists. Related Reading: Bitcoin Unrealized Losses Reach 
22% – Still No Capitulation Phase Volume expansion accompanying the latest 
decline suggests active distribution rather than low-liquidity drift. However, 
capitulation phases often show similar volume characteristics, meaning 
interpretation depends on whether follow-through selling continues or begins 
to fade. Structurally, BTC now faces a critical test. Holding above the 
$68K–$70K range could allow consolidation before a potential recovery attempt. 
Failure to stabilize there would increase the probability of a deeper 
retracement toward longer-term moving average support, keeping the broader 
market cautious despite growing oversold conditions. Featured image from 
ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Deep In Loss: MVRV Signals Capitulation Phase

The prediction market platform has announced an overhaul of its anti-insider 
training practices, enlisting the help of several high-profile executives in 
market integrity and surveillance. In addition, Kalshi appointed a new head of 
enforcement and partnered with Solidus Labs ahead of the upcoming Super Bowl. 
Kalshi Strengthens Anti-Insider Trading Stance Before Super Bowl Kalshi, one 
[…]

Kalshi Announces New Anti-Insider Trading Measures Ahead of Super Bowl

Bitwise Asset Management has filed a Form S-1 registration statement with the 
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a spot Uniswap ETF, marking 
a major step toward a regulated exchange-traded product tied directly to the 
UNI token. Uniswap ETF…

Bitwise files for first spot Uniswap ETF with SEC

The latest downturn in Bitcoin (BTC) has begun to weigh heavily on publicly 
listed companies that built their balance sheets around the market’s leading 
cryptocurrency. On Thursday, Bitcoin hovered near the $65,000 level, 
continuing the sharp decline that began last October. This has impacted equity 
markets, causing the shares of crypto-exposed firms to decline significantly. 
Bitcoin Slide Pressures Digital Asset Treasury Firms According to a Reuters 
report, the renewed volatility in digital assets is dragging down the stock 
prices of companies that hold Bitcoin and other tokens, raising concerns that 
the stress could spread more broadly across the sector. The number of publicly 
traded firms investing in cryptocurrencies surged last year, as many 
executives bet that digital assets would continue to appreciate over the long- 
term. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crashes Below $67,000 As Stifel Warns Of 
Potential Drop To $38,000 However, the backdrop has shifted. Investor anxiety 
over stretched valuations in artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, combined 
with uncertainty surrounding the future path of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest 
rate cuts, has weighed on risk assets more broadly. As a result, Bitcoin has 
slid to its lowest level since October 2024, putting pressure on companies 
whose business models rely on holding digital assets. Many of these digital 
asset treasury firms saw their shares wobble sharply on Thursday. Seven Major 
Companies Suffer Strategy (previously MicroStrategy), the largest corporate 
BTC holder with over 700,000 coins, has been among the hardest hit. Its shares 
have fallen from around $457 in July to as low as $106 on Thursday. In 
December, the company cut its 2025 earnings outlook, pointing to weakness in 
Bitcoin prices, and announced plans to establish a reserve to help support 
dividend payments. The firm led by Michael Saylor said it now expects its 
full‑year results to range anywhere from a $6.3 billion profit to a $5.5 
billion loss, a sharp downgrade from its earlier forecast of a $24 billion net 
profit. Related Reading: Ripple Throws Weight Behind Hyperliquid, Fueling 
HYPE’s Rally Toward Crucial Levels Other Bitcoin‑focused firms also felt the 
impact. Shares of the UK‑based Smarter Web Company fell nearly 18% on 
Thursday. Rival Bitcoin buyers Nakamoto Inc and Japan’s Metaplanet were also 
under pressure, dropping almost 9% and more than 7%, respectively. However, 
the sell-off pressure has not been limited to companies holding only BTC. On 
Thursday, crypto-related firms that stockpiled other digital tokens also 
traded lower amid the correction affecting broader digital asset prices. Alt5 
Sigma, which announced last year that it would accumulate the Trump family’s 
World Liberty Financial (WLFI) token, saw its shares drop 8.4%. Similarly, 
SharpLink Gaming, which holds Ethereum (ETH), declined about 8%, while Forward 
Industries, a holder of Solana (SOL), slid nearly 6%. Featured image from 
OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin Crash Exposes Colossal Corporate Losses — Here’s Who’s Most Impacted

Santiment says the pattern of large holders selling while retail scoops up 
Bitcoin is “what historically creates bear cycles.”

Cryptocurrency price in ZAR