Welcome to Latam Insights, a compilation of the most relevant crypto news from 
Latin America over the past week. In this edition, El Salvador defends its 
continuous bitcoin purchases, Prospera faces an uncertain future in Honduras, 
and Argentina facilitates “mattress money” investments in crypto assets. ‘Not 
A Stock:’ El Salvador Defends Bitcoin Purchases Amid Market […]

Latam Insights: El Salvador Defends Its Bitcoin Strategy, Prospera Faces an Uncertain Future

OpenClaw creator Peter Steinberger confirmed that users can be removed for 
mentioning Bitcoin and crypto on Discord.

AI agent OpenClaw confirms ban on Bitcoin, crypto discussions in Discord

A modest claim. A bold number. Both are on the table for Bitcoin this week as 
a debate over how to read short-term streaks in price gains grows louder. 
Related Reading: Bitcoin Market Bleeds $1 Trillion, Saylor Signals Strongest 
Crypto Conviction Yet Crypto analyst Timothy Peterson has pointed out that 
half of the last 24 months showed positive returns. Based on reports, he then 
gave a nearly 90% chance that Bitcoin would be higher in 10 months. That leap 
from a simple count to a firm probability is the headline grabber. It should 
be met with careful questions about how the odds were calculated and what 
assumptions were built into the model. Counting Positive Months Peterson based 
his view on a review of monthly performance data. Figures compiled by 
CoinGlass show that Bitcoin closed six months of 2025 in positive territory, 
while the remaining six finished lower. According to the data, 50% of the past 
24 months ended with gains. Peterson said he tracks this rolling two-year 
window to spot potential turning points in price trends. 50% of the past 24 
months have been positive. This implies a 88% chance that Bitcoin will be 
higher 10 months from now. The average return is exp(60%)-1 = 82% =&gt; $122,000. 
Data goes back to 2011. https://t.co/k4IjTisuTH pic.twitter.com/ZxfTyequjt — 
Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) February 21, 2026 Market Odds And Betting An 
exchange of bets shows a very different view. Polymarket currently prices 
December as only a 17% shot at being the best month of 2026, with November a 
hair higher. Those numbers answer a different question from Peterson’s: they 
reflect market bets on which month will outperform others, not whether the 
price will simply be higher at a future date. Betting markets can be blunt 
tools, but they do pack the collective view of many traders into a single 
number. Bitcoin Price Action Price has not been calm. Bitcoin traded in a 
roughly $67,000–$68,000 band this week as geopolitical tension in the Middle 
East tightened. Safe-haven assets like gold and oil jumped on news flows, and 
Bitcoin felt the squeeze as some buyers stepped back. At the same time, live 
tickers showed the token about 20% below its level at the start of the year, a 
reminder that headline percentages hide wide intraday swings. Analysts Are 
Split Voices from the trading desk are divided. Michael van de Poppe suggested 
near-term green candles could be coming, urging traders to watch for a lift. 
On the other hand, Peter Brandt has argued a deeper low may not arrive until 
late 2026. Both views rest on different sets of signals — one on momentum and 
chart structure, the other on longer cycle patterns and risk of macro shocks. 
Sentiment Still Down Meanwhile, flow data from spot ETF purchases, derivatives 
positioning, and on-chain liquidity figures would add weight to any forecast. 
Related Reading: XRP Tipped As Central Bank Bridge Asset — Bigger Than 
Bitcoin? Peterson’s forecast comes as crypto market sentiment continues to 
decline, with reports noting that discussion and activity around Bitcoin 
predictions have slowed. Traders appear cautious, weighing past trends against 
current uncertainty in the market. Featured image from Vecteezy, chart from 
TradingView

Bitcoin’s 2-Year Pattern Revealed: 12 Green Months Out Of 24

The U.S. finalizes market structure, China centralizes control, and the UAE 
scales regulated stablecoins. Law is now infrastructure.

Latest digital asset law changes in the USA, China, and the UAE | Opinion

Over the past two weeks, the Bitcoin market saw an overwhelming sellers&#8217; 
dominance, with no significant input from the bulls influencing the price. As 
the flagship cryptocurrency slipped into a downturn, investors increasingly 
fled the market out of fear, further pushing prices downwards. However, as the 
Bitcoin price seems to have found stability, an interesting on-chain 
revelation has also surfaced. If this change proves sustainable, it could mean 
something positive for the world&#8217;s leading cryptocurrency. Related Reading: 
Bitcoin Trades Below ETF Cost-Basis As MVRV Signals Mounting Pressure 
Accelerating OTC Outflows, Sign Of Possible Reversal? In their latest post on 
the CryptoQuant platform, CoinNiel shares an exciting hypothesis for the 
Bitcoin price, based on data from the Bitcoin: Total OTC Desk Balance. The 
analyst points out that the Bitcoin price might be at a point where a reversal 
is imminent. For context, the Bitcoin: Total OTC Desk Balance metric measures 
the total amount of Bitcoin currently being held in wallets associated with 
over-the-counter (OTC) trading desks. When the balance is rising, it often 
implies that more BTC is being moved to these OTC desks. This is also a 
telltale sign of increasing sell appetite among Bitcoin&#8217;s large holders. On 
the contrary, falling values on this metric typically indicate that Bitcoin is 
being withdrawn from OTC desks. By extension, it could imply that 
institutional demand is growing, or that large holders are no longer 
positioning for sales. According to the chart shared below, the Total OTC Desk 
Balance has taken on a sharp downtrend, meaning that there has been a 
significant amount of BTC sent out of the OTC market. Notably, this switch in 
investor behavior is happening around the same time as when Bitcoin regained 
its $68,000 footing. As a result, the BTC market sentiment appears to be 
shifting from pessimistic to slightly optimistic: instead of accumulating BTC 
for sale, OTC balances are instead contracting. This could be caused by 
increased buying from large holders or due to reduced selling appetite among 
Bitcoin&#8217;s market participants. In the scenario where there is increased 
institutional accumulation of Bitcoin, it could be a sign that the Bitcoin 
price would soon make a big upside move. On the other hand, reduced selling 
activity is also good for the Bitcoin price, as it translates as reduced 
selling pressure, allowing for the short-term recovery of the flagship 
cryptocurrency&#8217;s price. CoinNiel, therefore, states as a caveat that the true 
drivers behind this dynamic remain to be confirmed. As a result, investors and 
other market participants should be alert when engaging with the Bitcoin 
market. Related Reading: Saylor Makes Bold $1M Bitcoin Call — “It’s Zero Or A 
Million” Bitcoin Price At A Glance At press time, Bitcoin holds a value of 
$67,953, reflecting a 24-hour devaluation of 0.17% per CoinMarketCap data. 
Since the past seven days, the flagship cryptocurrency has so far lost about 
2.81% of its value. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview

Cryptocurrency price in ZAR