Bitcoin has experienced one of its sharpest corrections in recent years, 
slipping below the $65,000 level and reaching its lowest price since October 
2024. The decline reflects persistent selling pressure across the crypto 
market, accompanied by deteriorating macro sentiment, reduced liquidity, and 
cautious positioning among institutional participants. Recent price action 
suggests the market is entering a critical phase where confidence, rather than 
technical levels alone, may determine the next directional move. Related 
Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Deep In Loss: MVRV Signals Capitulation 
Phase Amid this uncertainty, the Binance SAFU Fund disclosed the purchase of 
an additional 3,600 BTC, valued at roughly $233.37 million. While such 
acquisitions do not guarantee a market reversal, they indicate continued 
strategic accumulation by major industry players even during periods of 
elevated volatility. Market sentiment has deteriorated markedly. Several 
sentiment indicators now sit near levels last observed during the 2022 bear 
market, when risk appetite contracted sharply and investors adopted defensive 
positioning. This environment typically coincides with reduced speculative 
activity, heightened caution among retail traders, and increased scrutiny from 
institutional capital. Institutional Accumulation Emerges Amid Prolonged 
Capitulation Phase Arkham data indicates that the Binance SAFU fund has 
continued accumulating Bitcoin, bringing its total recent purchases to 
approximately 6,230 BTC, valued near $434.5 million. While such activity 
signals ongoing participation from large institutional entities, it does not 
necessarily imply an imminent price recovery. Historically, significant 
purchases during corrective phases often occur alongside broader market stress 
rather than marking an immediate turning point. Current market conditions 
increasingly resemble a classic capitulation phase. Capitulation typically 
emerges when sustained price declines force weaker holders to exit positions, 
often at losses, leading to elevated exchange inflows, compressed liquidity, 
and sharp sentiment deterioration. These episodes can persist longer than many 
participants anticipate, particularly when macroeconomic uncertainty, risk-off 
positioning, and tightening liquidity conditions coincide. Importantly, 
capitulation does not follow a fixed timeline. In prior cycles, similar phases 
unfolded over weeks or even months before a durable bottom formed. During 
these periods, volatility tends to remain elevated, failed rallies are common, 
and confidence rebuilds gradually rather than abruptly. The key variables to 
monitor include exchange flows, derivatives leverage, spot demand recovery, 
and broader macro signals. Until those metrics stabilize, the base case 
remains continued market fragility. Large-scale accumulation by institutional 
funds may provide structural support, but it rarely prevents extended 
consolidation or further downside during capitulation environments. Related 
Reading: Ethereum Coinbase Premium Drops To 2022 Bear-Market Levels: 
Capitulation Or Further Downside? Weekly Structure Shows Breakdown Below Key 
Support Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows a clear deterioration in market structure 
after losing the $70K region, a level that had previously acted as both 
psychological and technical support. The latest candle reflects strong 
downside momentum, with price briefly touching the $60K zone before 
stabilizing near $65.9K. This move confirms a breakdown from the prior 
consolidation range and shifts focus toward whether this decline represents a 
deeper bear phase or a late-cycle correction. From a trend perspective, 
Bitcoin is now trading below the 50-week moving average while approaching the 
100-week average. Historically, a critical dynamic support during corrective 
phases. The 200-week average remains far below, indicating the long-term macro 
trend has not fully reversed, although intermediate momentum has clearly 
weakened. Related Reading: Are We Near A Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom? History 
Offers A Framework Volume dynamics also matter here. The recent selloff shows 
rising participation compared with earlier consolidation periods, suggesting 
distribution rather than simple profit-taking. However, sustained high volume 
without further price acceleration downward could signal seller exhaustion. If 
Bitcoin fails to reclaim the $70K area, downside risk toward the $60K–$55K 
zone remains plausible. Conversely, stabilization above current levels would 
indicate absorption, a necessary precursor for any meaningful recovery. 
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Binance SAFU Fund Adds 3,600 Bitcoin ($233M) As Market Faces Pressure

Erebor doubled its valuation to $4 billion after a $350 million Lux Capital- 
led funding round late last year.

Crypto-focused Erebor wins first new US bank charter of Trump’s second term: WSJ

Bitcoin’s roughly 50% drawdown has less to do with cycle déjà vu than a deeper 
break in the market’s old playbook, according to Jeff Park, partner and CIO at 
ProCap Financial, who argues a prospective Kevin Warsh-led Federal Reserve 
could catalyze a regime shift in how Bitcoin trades. In an conversation with 
Anthony Pompliano, Park said he believes Bitcoin has been in a bear market 
“for quite a bit,” and warned that the familiar reflexive framework, easier 
policy, more liquidity, higher BTC, has stopped doing the explanatory work it 
once did. What Kevin Warsh Means For Bitcoin Park’s starting point was a blunt 
claim: the assumed linkage between Bitcoin and global liquidity has “been 
broken for quite some time.” He pointed to what he described as steadily 
rising global liquidity through 2025, citing Michael Howell’s tracking and 
estimating the level at roughly $170 trillion, alongside broad-based strength 
in other asset classes. “Asset prices have all gone up,” Park said, 
referencing a “frenzied rally” in metals and corporate credit spreads near 
all-time lows, before adding: “there actually is a lot of reasons to think 
that Bitcoin should have also already participated, but it didn’t.” Related 
Reading: Bitcoin Crash On Feb. 5 Was Historic: The Numbers Behind The Selloff 
That divergence, he argued, is why investors should stop leaning on backward- 
looking heuristics that have become psychological crutches. In his telling, 
crypto markets have repeatedly assumed history would re-run—altcoin rallies 
after bitcoin rallies, a durable four-year cycle, and the idea that QE or 
lower rates reliably lift BTC. “It’s worth remembering that there’s things 
that are constantly changing about the world where everything looks a little 
bit different than the way you had modeled it before,” he said. From there, 
Park reframed the debate around his “negative rho” versus “positive rho” 
Bitcoin framework. The former is the risk-asset version most investors 
recognize: rates down, risk up, Bitcoin up. The latter is the endgame: Bitcoin 
rising as rates rise, effectively challenging the notion of a stable “risk- 
free” rate by calling into question the credibility of the monetary order 
itself. “This is the mythical elusive perfect holy grail of what Bitcoin is 
meant to be,” Park said of positive-rho Bitcoin. “What it’s undermining is the 
risk-free rate itself. In that world, what we’re saying is actually because 
the risk-free rate is not the risk-free rate. Because the dollar hegemony is 
not the dollar hegemony and we are no longer able to price the yield curve in 
the ways we’ve known that means we need something different… and bitcoin is 
that hedge.” Park suggested the market may be inching toward that worldview as 
US policymaking becomes more explicitly about system repair, not incremental 
tweaks. He described the current US administration as attempting to “wrestle 
control of the economy away from the Federal Reserve” via deregulation, tax 
cuts, tariffs, and efforts to weaken the dollar, leaving the Fed “on their 
back foot” amid shifting “tectonic plates” across policy channels. Absolutely 
enjoyed recording this, even though we of course wish prices were higher. For 
those who have been listening to our show (monthly going forward), the fact 
that we are in a bear market won&#8217;t come as a big surprise. Still, Bitcoin can 
survive all this! Listen below 👇 https://t.co/JSrKOw5QLY — Jeff Park 
(@dgt10011) February 5, 2026 That’s where Park placed Warsh, a former Fed 
governor and, in Park’s telling, a rare combination of institutional fluency 
and technological conviction, as potentially pivotal. Park recounted an 
interaction from 2021 or 2022 in which Warsh expressed enthusiasm for Bitcoin 
while criticizing “phonies” who treat tech as “magic.” Warsh, Park said, 
“truly believed deep in his heart that this isn’t magic… that it actually is 
going to solve a lot of problems and bring efficiencies and Bitcoin is a core 
part of that cultural fabric.” Related Reading: PlanB Lays Out Four Bitcoin 
Bear-Market Scenarios Crucially, Park emphasized Warsh is not an anti- 
institution wrecking ball. Instead, he portrayed Warsh as someone who 
understands why the Fed’s legitimacy has been challenged and how it might be 
rebuilt. One line, Park said, has “always stuck” with him: “inflation is a 
choice.” Park contrasted that with Fed communication that, in his view, 
sometimes treats inflation as something that merely happens due to tariffs or 
war, rather than an outcome of policy tools and mandates. For Park, a Warsh 
appointment matters less because it guarantees easier policy and more because 
it could accelerate a rethink of Fed–Treasury coordination. He said he is 
“optimistic about the possibility of a new Fed Treasury accord that Bessant 
and Warsh can rewrite,” arguing the heart of the issue is the Triffin dilemma 
and the tension between the dollar’s external reserve role and internal saver 
role. “It’s not that we need fed independence,” Park said. “We actually need 
Fed interdependence with the Treasury.” The irony, in Park’s framing, is that 
“more accommodative policies may in fact actually not be the catalyst” for 
Bitcoin’s next bull phase. Instead, he argued Bitcoin’s bid ultimately 
strengthens when the world feels less like “peacetime” and more like 
“wartime”, when industrial, military, and fiscal policy dominate, 
centralization pressures rise, and capital controls become more plausible. The 
people who “need Bitcoin,” he said, are not US investors with endless 
alternatives, but those facing constraint and censorship. If Park is right, 
Warsh isn’t bullish for Bitcoin because he’ll deliver a familiar liquidity 
wave. He’s bullish because a Warsh-era Fed, paired with a Treasury aligned on 
system-level reform, could push markets toward the “positive rho” regime, 
where Bitcoin’s value proposition is less about riding stimulus and more about 
challenging the architecture that made stimulus necessary in the first place. 
At press time, BTC traded at $66,396. Featured image created with DALL.E, 
chart from TradingView.com

Kevin Warsh Will Trigger Bitcoin Regime Shift, Jeff Park Says

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