XRP has given back all of its early‑year gains, sliding toward the $1.90. 
Despite the pullback, several on‑chain and market indicators are pointing to a 
possible breakout from current levels, driven largely by a sharp decline in 
XRP held on exchanges. XRP Exchange Balances Slide To 1.5B Market analyst Sam 
Daodu notes that over the past months, a substantial portion of XRP has 
steadily moved off centralized trading platforms and into long‑term storage 
and institutional custody. On‑chain figures indicate that XRP exchange 
balances dropped from roughly 4 billion tokens in early 2025 to about 1.5 
billion by late December. This 57% decline represents the steepest annual 
reduction in XRP exchange supply on record. Related Reading: Binance Forms New 
Company In Greece, Moves Forward With MiCA Licensing Data from CryptoQuant 
reinforces this trend, showing shrinking XRP reserves on major trading 
platforms such as Binance, where balances continued to fall into early 2026. 
At the same time, wallet accumulation has increased, particularly among 
institutional custody accounts. Daodu argues that with fewer tokens available 
on exchanges, buying pressure that previously moved XRP only marginally can 
now drive gains of 10% to 15% within days. When combined with approximately 
$1.37 billion in XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows recorded since 
November 2025, Daodu believes the conditions favor a potential breakout toward 
the $4 to $5 range, rather than another rally that stalls below $3. Bullish, 
Base, And Bearish Scenarios Looking ahead, Daodu outlines three broad price 
paths for XRP, each tied to how exchange balances and ETF inflows evolve. In a 
bullish scenario, the altcoin could move into the $4 to $5 range if monthly 
ETF inflows average $300-$500 million and exchange balances fall below 1.5 
billion tokens. A more neutral outcome would see XRP trading between $2.50 and 
$3.50. This scenario assumes ETF inflows slow to roughly $50 million to $70 
million per week and exchange balances continue to decline at a steadier pace. 
Related Reading: Expert Analyzes XRP, Ethereum, And Solana: Predictions For 
The Next Altcoin Season The bearish case hinges on the possibility that the 
supply contraction thesis proves overstated. If rapid transfers refill 
exchange order books, escrow releases increase selling pressure, or ETF demand 
slows due to tighter macroeconomic conditions, XRP could lose support. In that 
scenario, prices may fall below $2.00 and revisit the $1.60 level during 
periods of risk aversion. Prolonged uncertainty could see XRP trading between 
$1.50 and $2.00 for much of 2026, according to the analyst. At the time of 
writing, the altcoin was trading at $1.94. This represented losses of 4% and 
8% over seven and fourteen-day periods, respectively. This positions the 
fifth-largest cryptocurrency in terms of market cap 46% below the current all- 
time high of $3.64 reached back in July of last year. Featured image from 
DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Expert Forecasts $5 XRP Price As Exchange Balances Plummet By 57%

UBS is quietly opening the door to cryptocurrency trading for wealthy clients, 
signaling a cautious but meaningful shift as global wealth managers respond to 
rising demand for bitcoin exposure and the growing role of blockchain in 
traditional finance. UBS Prepares Bitcoin Trading Pilot for Swiss Clients With 
Global Expansion, Report Traditional banks are increasingly reassessing […]

UBS Plans Bitcoin and Ether Trading for Private Clients as Institutional Demand Accelerates: Report

Bitcoin is trading below the $90,000 level once again, as the market continues 
to drift through a phase defined by indecision, rising caution, and growing 
fear. After repeated failures to reclaim this psychological threshold, price 
action has started to reflect a lack of conviction on both sides, with buyers 
hesitating to step in aggressively and sellers pressing every rebound attempt. 
While the broader trend has not fully collapsed, the inability to hold key 
levels is increasing uncertainty around Bitcoin’s next major move. Related 
Reading: XRP Distribution Phase Continues, But Funding Rates Suggest Shorts 
Are Overextended Top analyst Darkfost argues that on-chain signals are 
starting to mirror conditions typically seen near the end of prolonged 
drawdowns. According to his analysis, Bitcoin’s unrealized profits and losses 
are sliding back toward levels that have historically appeared only at the 
exit of bear markets, when the market has already absorbed a deep reset in 
sentiment. This shift suggests that stress is building under the surface, even 
if price has not yet entered a full capitulation phase. Since Bitcoin’s last 
all-time high, Darkfost notes that many late-arriving investors have moved 
into uncomfortable territory, facing mounting downside pressure as the market 
cools. As a result, unrealized profits are shrinking, unrealized losses are 
expanding, and the overall balance continues to deteriorate—an environment 
that often forces traders into a decisive choice between holding through 
volatility or exiting under stress. Decision Point For Bitcoin Investors 
Darkfost highlighted a chart based on an adjusted version of NUPL (Net 
Unrealized Profit/Loss), designed to capture investor stress more accurately 
during shifting market regimes. Instead of relying solely on the standard 
market cap, the model incorporates the realized capitalization of both Short- 
Term Holders (STHs) and Long-Term Holders (LTHs), then compares that blended 
realized foundation against Bitcoin’s traditional market cap. The result is a 
clearer view of how much profit or loss sits “on paper” across the market, 
filtered through a more structural lens. To reduce noise and better define 
trend shifts, the metric is smoothed using an average, producing what Darkfost 
refers to as aNUPL. The key takeaway is that Bitcoin is approaching levels 
that have historically forced investors into a binary decision. When 
unrealized profits compress and unrealized losses expand to these ranges, 
holders typically face two outcomes: hold and continue accumulating, or 
capitulate and lock in losses. That difference in behavior becomes critical 
because it shapes liquidity, sentiment, and the next directional trend. If 
long-term participants absorb the pressure and keep holding, the market can 
stabilize and rotate back into recovery. But if selling accelerates from 
stressed cohorts, the decline can deepen into a broader bear phase. This is 
why tracking realized and unrealized profit dynamics remains essential, 
especially during periods of uncertainty. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In 
Profit Stalls At 71%: Still Not Enough For A Sustainable Recovery Bitcoin 
Consolidates After Sharp Weekly Breakdown Bitcoin is trading around $89,000 on 
the weekly chart after a steep selloff that pushed the price out of its prior 
distribution zone. The latest candle reflects heavy downside pressure, with 
BTC dropping roughly 4.8% on the week and struggling to stabilize near a key 
pivot that has repeatedly acted as support and resistance throughout the 
cycle. After failing to hold above the psychological $90,000 threshold, the 
market is now trapped in a tight consolidation range, suggesting traders are 
waiting for confirmation before committing to a larger move. Related Reading: 
Ethereum Supply Tightens On Binance As Reserves Hit Lowest Level Since 2016 
From a trend standpoint, Bitcoin remains vulnerable as it trades below the 
blue moving average, which is now acting as overhead resistance near the 
low-$100K region. The rejection from that dynamic level aligns with the 
broader structure: BTC topped near the mid-$120K range, then entered a sharp 
corrective leg that reset momentum into early 2026. While the green moving 
average continues to slope upward and is approaching the current price zone, 
the market has not yet shown the strength needed to reclaim its former trend 
trajectory. Importantly, the weekly structure is now compressing. If buyers 
can defend the $88K–$90K region and push BTC back above $92K–$95K, it would 
signal a recovery attempt toward the moving average band. However, a sustained 
failure here increases the risk of a deeper retracement toward the low-$80K 
zone, where prior demand previously emerged. Featured image from ChatGPT, 
chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin Indicator Falls Back To Post-Bear Market Levels: Investors Approach A Key Decision Point

A full sale at current prices would imply about a $76 million loss on 
GameStop’s Bitcoin bet, having purchased its 4,710 Bitcoin at an average 
purchasing price of $107,900.

GameStop moves entire Bitcoin stash, signaling potential sale: CryptoQuant

XRP has begun attracting attention again after months of sideways trading. The 
coin has risen slightly over the past day, though it remains down for the 
week. Traders are pointing to familiar chart patterns, suggesting the quiet 
period may be nearing an end. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Sharp Reversal Leaves 
Over $800 Million Liquidated In 1 Day Traders Spot A Familiar Price Pattern A 
fresh take on XRP came from DonWedge, who posted a half-day chart on 
TradingView. Though he kept it short &#8211; just “XRP looks good” &#8211; the message 
carried weight. Instead of bold predictions, his analysis leaned on patterns. 
A downward-sloping channel draws the eye, much like one seen months before. 
Shape echoes past rhythm. What stands out is how closely current movement 
tracks earlier behavior. The image tells part of the story; context fills in 
the rest. Time will show whether history bends toward repetition. That old 
rise in XRP moved fast. Following that climb, it slipped into a steady decline 
lasting around half a year. Once sellers slowed their pace, the price jumped 
again without warning. $XRP looks good pic.twitter.com/OnyChRVzNp — Don 🐂 
(@DonWedge) January 21, 2026 Fresh lows in XRP&#8217;s path hug the bottom stretch 
of a familiar range, pressure easing &#8211; some watchful eyes guess what comes 
next might climb. Volume And Resistance Are Key According to reports, the next 
major hurdle is a multi-month trendline resistance near $2.10. A clean daily 
close above this line, combined with rising volume, could signal the start of 
a new uptrend. DonWedge projects that if the breakout occurs, XRP could aim 
for $4. From current levels, this would require a little over a 100% increase. 
Traders note, however, that moves without volume confirmation can fail, 
leading to false breakouts and extended consolidation. Market Expert Projects 
A Telling Year Based on reports, analyst ChartNerd says 2026 will be a 
“telling year” for XRP. He expects the coin either to confirm a strong 
breakout with fresh momentum or to fall below the structure it has defended 
for over a year. After a macro breakout in Q4 2024, $XRP has been accumulating 
above its prior 2021 highs for over a year. The whole of 2025 was sideways, 
boring, and a test of even the most durable minds. 2026 is going to be the 
telling year. Compression typically leads to expansion. Buckle up. 
pic.twitter.com/QJb7JAmIkL — 🇬🇧 ChartNerd 📊 (@ChartNerdTA) January 18, 2026 
Lately, the sideways grind has worn thin for some investors &#8211; yet hints of 
resilience still flicker through the numbers. Breaking past $2.10 with force 
might spark what comes next, lining up with the pattern DonWedge laid out on 
his chart. Patience now may quietly pay off later. Related Reading: Bitcoin 
Influencers Get Spotlight In X’s New ‘Starterpacks’ A Breakout Might Shift 
What Happens Next A sudden jump in price might push XRP toward $4 fast, 
provided it finishes above the trendline with strong movement. Higher goals 
are possible, yet reaching them means buyers keep stepping in without pause. 
So far, things look cautious rather than certain. Traders will probably keep 
an eye on activity levels, holding back bigger moves until signs become 
clearer. What happens next might show if XRP surges again or just drifts 
sideways some more. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

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