Wintermute said Bitcoin’s latest rally has failed its first major macro test, 
arguing that the move was driven more by leverage and short covering than by 
durable spot demand. In its May 18 market update, the trading firm pointed to 
hot inflation, rising Treasury yields, ETF outflows and renewed rate-hike 
pricing as the backdrop behind a sharp reversal across digital assets. “Last 
week we said we&#8217;d find out fast what kind of rally this was. We found out,” 
Wintermute wrote. “BTC failed at the 200-day on the first real macro shock, 
which tells you it was the squeeze driving it all along.” The firm’s update 
framed the week as a macro-led repricing. April CPI came in at 3.8% year over 
year, above the 3.7% consensus estimate, while core CPI rose 0.4% month over 
month. Wintermute said the inflation shock has become harder for markets to 
dismiss, noting that the prolonged energy shock is now moving into core 
inflation and that real wages turned negative for the first time in three 
years. Related Reading: Bitcoin Hits ‘Wall Of Resistance,’ CryptoQuant 
Research Head Warns Rates responded quickly. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 
28 basis points on the week to 4.58%, its highest level since September 2025, 
while fed funds futures erased all expected cuts for 2026 and began pricing a 
44% chance of a rate hike by December, up from 22.5% a week earlier. 
Wintermute said the market narrative shifted from “when do they cut” to “do 
they hike” in only five trading days. That repricing hit long-duration assets. 
Wintermute said 20-year-plus Treasuries fell 2.8%, while gold dropped 3.8% 
despite the geopolitical backdrop. Brent crude rose 8.6%, leaving the firm to 
conclude that “the only things that worked were the things causing the 
problem.” Why $75,000 Bitcoin Is The Line In The Sand Bitcoin briefly moved 
above $82,000 after the CLARITY Act vote, but then reversed sharply and closed 
Friday near $78,000, down 5.7% for the week. A weekend slide toward $77,000 
triggered $657 million in liquidations, including $584 million from long 
positions. Ethereum underperformed even more, falling 10.2% on the week. 
Wintermute said ETH continued to weaken across both spot and derivatives 
markets, with ETH/BTC pressing 0.0275, funding softer and relative implied 
volatility elevated. The firm described ETH as the “wrong asset for this 
macro.” ETF flows also turned against the market. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded 
$1 billion of outflows for the week, ending six consecutive weeks of inflows, 
while ETH ETFs saw $255 million leave the products. Wintermute cited Glassnode 
data showing institutions were “selling into strength,” with the seven-day 
moving average of net flows at negative $88 million per day, the weakest level 
since mid-February. “When leverage is the marginal buyer, the unwind is fast,” 
Wintermute wrote. Related Reading: Strategy Wants 1,000,000 Bitcoin Treasury 
And This Is How They Plan To Get To That Number The firm said Bitcoin remains 
below its 200-day moving average near $82,200 after being rejected five times 
this month. The immediate support zone is $76,000 to $78,000, according to the 
update, while a break of $75,000 could open the way toward $70,000 to $72,000. 
Wintermute did not dismiss the broader structural case for Bitcoin. It noted 
that exchange reserves remain near multi-year lows, long-term holders are 
still accumulating, and the CLARITY Act continues to move forward after 
clearing the Senate banking committee. The firm also said tokenized Treasuries 
reached $15 billion onchain, describing the segment as an area of continued 
growth. Still, Wintermute argued that short-term flows matter more than the 
structural story for now. “The flow data shows institutions used the rally to 
take profit rather than add, and in the short term that matters more than the 
structural story,” the firm wrote. The next test, according to the update, is 
whether Bitcoin can hold the $76,000 to $78,000 area through Nvidia earnings 
on Wednesday, May 20. A hold would “rebuild some confidence,” Wintermute said, 
but a break below $75,000 with funding resetting and ETF flows negative could 
bring the low $70,000s back into view quickly. At press time, BTC traded at 
$77,297. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Wintermute said Bitcoin’s latest rally has failed its first major macro test, arguing that the move was driven more by leverage and short covering than by durable spot demand. In its May 18 market update, the trading firm pointed to hot inflation, rising Treasury yields, ETF outflows and renewed rate-hike pricing as the backdrop behind &#8230;

Wintermute Says Bitcoin Rally Was A Squeeze, Low $70,000s Loom

Circle stock draws fresh attention as Duan Yongping buys 200,000 CRCL shares, 
adding stablecoin exposure to a $20b portfolio in Q1 2026 now.

Circle stock draws fresh attention as Duan Yongping buys 200,000 CRCL shares, adding stablecoin exposure to a $20b portfolio in Q1 2026 now.

China’s Buffett buys Circle in stablecoin stock surprise

Research firm K33 Research says the bitcoin bear market of 2026 is 
structurally different from previous cycles, with the February low near 
$60,000 likely representing the deepest pullback this downturn will produce. 
Bitcoin’s Downside Capped at $60K In a research note published this week, 
K33’s head of research, Vetle Lunde, argued that the conditions defining […]

Research firm K33 Research says the bitcoin bear market of 2026 is structurally different from previous cycles, with the February low near $60,000 likely representing the deepest pullback this downturn will produce. Bitcoin’s Downside Capped at $60K In a research note published this week, K33’s head of research, Vetle Lunde, argued that the conditions defining &#8230;

K33 Research Says Bitcoin’s $60K Bottom Was Bear Market’s Maximum Drawdown

South Carolina has passed a new cryptocurrency law that protects self-custody 
rights, limits state involvement with central bank digital currencies, and 
removes several licensing requirements tied to blockchain activity. South 
Carolina Governor Henry McMaster signed Senate Bill 163 into law…

South Carolina has passed a new cryptocurrency law that protects self-custody rights, limits state involvement with central bank digital currencies, and removes several licensing requirements tied to blockchain activity. South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster signed Senate Bill 163 into law…

South Carolina bars state agencies from participating in CBDC programs

Bitwise’s Matt Hougan says Hyperliquid’s token is not priced as if it is tied 
to a “global super-app,” arguing the platform is more than just a crypto 
platform.

Bitwise’s Matt Hougan says Hyperliquid’s token is not priced as if it is tied to a “global super-app,” arguing the platform is more than just a crypto platform.

Bitwise calls HYPE ‘most mispriced’ crypto despite 77% rise this year

Financial regulators are also asked to review regulations that could be 
amended to streamline applications for eligible fintech firms seeking bank and 
credit union charters.

Financial regulators are also asked to review regulations that could be amended to streamline applications for eligible fintech firms seeking bank and credit union charters.

Cryptocurrency price in VEF

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