Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick says Bitcoin could still face a final 
washout to $50,000 before recovering sharply, arguing that the current 
drawdown looks more like a macro-led tech capitulation than a crypto-specific 
breakdown. Speaking on Deribit’s Crypto Options Unplugged, Kendrick, the 
bank’s global head of digital assets research, said he still expects Bitcoin 
to end the year at $100,000 and reach $500,000 by 2030, even as he warned that 
the near-term setup remains fragile. “Picking the bottom is always extremely 
difficult,” Kendrick said, framing the recent selloff as mostly orderly 
outside a few volatile weeks. He argued that institutional positioning has 
held up better than many expected, pointing to relatively sticky ETF exposure 
and continued buying from MicroStrategy even after the stock’s premium to net 
asset value fell below one. Related Reading: 43% of Bitcoin Supply Is In Loss 
As Market Nears Bear Territory Still, Kendrick said the market may not be done 
deleveraging. “I suspect we could still see that final capitulation. Now, it 
could be macro driven,” he said. “Bitcoin and crypto assets more broadly is 
still very highly correlated with the Nasdaq.” In his view, weaker earnings 
from large US tech names over the next few months, combined with a lack of 
immediate Federal Reserve support, could drag crypto lower alongside equities. 
That, he said, is what makes the $50,000 level plausible. Kendrick compared 
the potential move with prior cycle drawdowns, noting that a decline to that 
zone would still be shallower than the roughly 75% peak-to-trough drop seen in 
the previous cycle. The key difference this time, he argued, is the absence so 
far of a major internal crypto failure on the scale of FTX. Why Kendrick Is 
Long-Term Bullish On Bitcoin Even so, Kendrick’s medium- and long-term thesis 
remains emphatically bullish. He tied that outlook less to short-term trading 
flows than to what he sees as a structural shift driven by stablecoins and 
tokenized real-world assets. Last year, when stablecoins stood around $200 
billion, Kendrick projected they could grow to $2 trillion by the end of 2028. 
He said the market is now closer to $300 billion, with much of that demand 
coming not from crypto trading but from savings use cases in emerging markets. 
“What’s replaced it has primarily been savings in emerging markets,” Kendrick 
said, referring to stablecoins’ original role as on-off ramps for crypto 
trading. “On my estimate of the $300 billion, about $200 [billion] is for EM 
savings use case.” He added that much of that capital appears to sit in large 
wallets and turns over infrequently, suggesting it is being used more as 
stored value than transactional float. Related Reading: Bitcoin SOPR Ratio 
Shows Early Capitulation—But Not Full Bottom Yet Kendrick’s broader argument 
is that this trend could have macro consequences well beyond crypto. If 
stablecoin issuers absorb close to $1 trillion in additional T-bill demand 
over the next three years, he said, the US Treasury may respond by shifting 
issuance toward the front end, flattening the yield curve and reinforcing 
dollar demand. In his telling, that liquidity effect could eventually become a 
tailwind for risk assets, including Bitcoin. “I think we go down to, let’s 
say, $50,000 and back to $100,000 by the end of this year and $500,000 by 
2030,” Kendrick said. “Ironically, if stablecoins are massive and Genius Act 
is as it is, the inflow of cash on liquidity and flattening yield curve and 
all that sort of stuff becomes massively supportive of Bitcoin medium term.” 
He extended that optimism across other large-cap crypto assets. Kendrick said 
he sees Ethereum reaching $40,000 and Solana hitting $2,000 by 2030, with 
Ethereum benefiting from stablecoin and tokenization activity and Solana from 
ultra-low-cost transaction flows and micropayments. He also projected 
tokenized real-world assets could grow from roughly $40 billion today to $2 
trillion by the end of 2028. For now, though, Kendrick’s message was less 
about chasing momentum than about separating market price from underlying 
adoption. “Pretty much all the underlying metrics, if you like, have been 
improving,” he said. “Except for the price.” At press time, Bitcoin traded at 
$70,260. Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin May Sink To $50K Before Rallying, Standard Chartered’s Kendrick Warns

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