According to CryptoQuant’s head of research Julio Moreno, Bitcoin may already 
be two months into a bear market after several of his indicators flipped to 
bearish in early November. Related Reading: Crypto Headed For A $10 Trillion 
Future? Hoskinson Says RWA Is The Key Moreno pointed to the price sliding 
below its one-year moving average as the clearest technical confirmation, and 
he used that signal to argue a lower trading range may be on the path ahead. 
Bitcoin Technical Signals, Market Mood Moreno said a likely bottom could sit 
near the realized price, which he put in the $56,000–$60,000 band. That would 
mean a drawdown of roughly 55% from Bitcoin’s all-time high — a drop that is 
large but smaller than past crashes that hit 70% or 80%. Market momentum is 
muted. Bitcoin began 2025 near $93,000, peaked at about $126,050 in October, 
and ended the year below where it started, according to CoinGecko. Trading 
hovered around $88,920 as of Friday, based on available data. Derivatives Show 
Caution Ahead Of Expiry Bitcoin was holding the $87,000–$89,000 range as $1.85 
billion in options approached expiry. Reports show derivatives volume fell 39% 
while open interest remained flat, a mix that points to hesitation rather than 
aggressive positioning by traders. Technical measures show price compression 
near support, and traders are watching expiry closely because a larger move 
could follow when those contracts settle. Volatility has been lower than in 
some previous selloffs, and that has left price action tighter than many 
expected. Institutional Accumulation And The Missing Shock Moreno and others 
note the environment feels structurally different. Large institutional players 
and regulated ETFs have been buying more regularly, and those flows are not 
known to be selling in panic. That steady demand has helped prevent the kind 
of cascading failures seen in 2022, when Terra, Celsius and FTX collapsed and 
amplified losses across the market. Because those big shocks did not occur 
this time, the drawdown looks more controlled, even if prices are moving down. 
Outlook Hinges On Macro And Regulation Some analysts still predict 2026 could 
bring fresh highs, citing expected US rate cuts and a friendlier policy stance 
in Washington. At the same time, observers are watching whether Bitcoin’s 
tighter link to US stocks holds as macro and regulatory decisions land. If the 
correlation weakens, crypto may chart its own course. If it stays strong, the 
path for Bitcoin could be shaped largely by broader market moves rather than 
crypto-specific flows. Related Reading: Crypto Exchange Korbit Fined $1.90 
Million By South Korean Regulators What Traders Will Watch Based on reports 
and Moreno’s view, the key items to monitor are the one-year moving average, 
realized price levels near $56,000–$60,000, the outcome of options expiries, 
and whether institutional buyers continue steady purchases. Price action has 
been calmer than some past crises, but that calm has masked real downside 
risk. Analysts and traders are split; some expect a return to growth next 
year, while others are preparing for lower prices before any sustained 
recovery. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin’s Bear Market Might Not Be New: Data Points To A 2-Month Slide

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