The middle of January marked the continuation of an already struggling price 
action for Bitcoin, as it took on another sharp downtrend. Early into 
February, the flagship cryptocurrency seemed to be on a free-fall, even 
breaching important psychological price levels as it crashed. One of these 
levels is the cost basis of one of Bitcoin&#8217;s most influential investor cohorts 
&#8211; the Bitcoin ETF investors. Data from a recent on-chain evaluation reveals 
that Bitcoin has since traded underneath this price, and has continued to meet 
investors with growing heat. Related Reading: Bithumb $43 Billion Bitcoin 
Blunder Triggers Political Backlash In South Korea MVRV Falls Below 1 — What 
This Means Market analyst PelinayPA has recently taken to QuickTake to reveal 
that the Bitcoin price is trading below the average realized price of Bitcoin 
ETFs, and the possible implications of this market setup. Notably, the ETF 
MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) index has also slipped under the 1 mark, 
reinforcing the agitated situation of most ETF investors. Historically, a 
sustained move below an MVRV of 1 signals increasing stress conditions within 
the BTC market, as it reflects an overwhelming dominance of unrealized losses 
amid an investor group. According to PelinayPA, this condition may cause sell- 
pressure to heighten, seeing as market participants would increasingly act on 
their emotions when dealing in the market. As such, short-term recovery 
attempts are likely to be met with significant resistance (as is currently the 
case) until the situation sees a turnaround. This is because investors who 
entered at higher price levels would likely exit their positions at break- 
even, or even under minimal losses, to avoid deep losses. Because the realized 
price of Bitcoin ETFs is approximately $80,000, this price region could act as 
a strong resistance level in the event that the Bitcoin price attempts a 
rebound. PelinayPA clarifies that if MVRV stabilizes within the 0.8–0.9 range, 
it could be a sign that the current bear pressure is nearing an exhaustion 
point; a scenario that could precede a short-term rebound towards the realized 
price. On the other hand, if the MVRV continues to decline (as the analyst 
expects), it could be problematic for the Bitcoin price. This is because ETFs 
would be under significant pressure, which could trigger sell-offs among this 
investor cohort. This would, in turn, increase downward pressure and further 
send prices downwards, especially in the long-term. Related Reading: Bitcoin 
Enters Historic Buying Zone, Indicator Suggests Bitcoin Market Overview As of 
this writing, Bitcoin trades for $68,000, reflecting a 1.58% growth in 24 
hours, according to CoinMarketCap data. Per SoSoValue data, Bitcoin ETFs have 
recorded a total net outflow of about $1.08 billion in February. This is after 
an even more staggering net withdrawal figure of $1.61 billion in January. 
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview

Bitcoin Trades Below ETF Cost-Basis As MVRV Signals Mounting Pressure

US spot Bitcoin ETFs logged five straight weeks of outflows, with $315.9 
million leaving last week as institutional investors de-risk amid macro 
uncertainty.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs record five weeks of net withdrawals, totaling $3.8B

Markets are quiet and uneasy. Bitcoin prices have pulled back, and big holders 
are keeping a cool face while the charts wobble. Reports note that one 
outspoken investor frames the market in stark terms: it either fails 
completely or becomes far more valuable than people now imagine. Related 
Reading: Bitcoin Market Bleeds $1 Trillion, Saylor Signals Strongest Crypto 
Conviction Yet Saylor’s Binary Bet According to Michael Saylor, Bitcoin has 
only two plausible final outcomes: worthless, or worth $1 million per coin. 
That is not a quick trading idea. It’s a long-running view about scarcity and 
demand. Saylor argues that a fixed supply paired with growing institutional 
buying and broader custody tools makes a future of massive price gains 
possible. He points to more banks, more spot ETFs and bigger corporate 
allocations as proof that demand has matured. If it’s not going to zero, it’s 
going to a million. $BTC — Michael Saylor (@saylor) February 20, 2026 A 
Warning From The Other Side Reports note that not everyone agrees. Mike 
McGlone of Bloomberg has sketched a darker path, one where price pressure and 
macro shocks could push values much lower — even toward $10,000. That view is 
rooted in history: markets can fall a long way before confidence returns. 
Short-term moves can be savage. Longer swings can be slower to recover. Both 
views are true on their own terms, because they answer different questions 
about time and risk. Balance Sheet And Funding Based on reports, the firm 
backing Saylor’s posture holds a very large stake: 717,131 BTC bought at an 
average cost of $76,027 a coin. That position is underwater for now. Still, 
financing choices matter. Strategy relies on equity, convertible notes, and 
preferred shares to meet cash needs. Arkham Intelligence has mapped out that 
preferred dividends are optional and redemptions are not automatic, which 
lowers the chance of forced sales right away. That setup buys time, though it 
does not erase exposure if prices stay low for a long stretch. SAYLOR IS 
UNDERWATER. BUT WILL HE SELL BTC? Saylor is over 10% underwater from his 
average purchase price. But what could actually force him to sell Bitcoin? 
Here’s an explainer of how, when and why Strategy might be forced to sell BTC. 
pic.twitter.com/uKbJ3ivO54 — Arkham (@arkham) February 20, 2026 Supply, Demand 
And The Big Numbers Saylor’s $1 million projection is driven by a supply 
argument: there are only 21 million coins. If enough institutions and 
treasuries keep buying, the math pushes the price up. He has said that with a 
particular share of total coins held by his firm, values could move into the 
millions, and he has sketched an even higher, $10 million possibility under 
stronger concentration scenarios. Related Reading: Bitcoin Enters Historic 
Buying Zone, Indicator Suggests Those are not forecasts you can treat like 
short-term targets. They are conditional models — possible only if adoption, 
regulation and market behavior all line up for years. The path forward is not 
easy. Bitcoin could crawl higher, stumble and trade in narrow ranges for 
years, or shoot up as new buyers enter. Politics, regulation and global 
liquidity will shape which route unfolds. Institutional entry has changed the 
market structure, but it has not removed the risk of big drawdowns. Featured 
image from Pixabay, chart from TradingView

Saylor Makes Bold $1M Bitcoin Call — “It’s Zero Or A Million”

Polymarket has acquired Dome in a bid to supercharge its developer ecosystem 
and tighten its grip on the fast-growing prediction markets sector. Polymarket 
Aims to Strengthen Tech Stack With Dome Buy On Friday, Polymarket confirmed it 
purchased Dome, a Y Combinator-backed startup focused on unified API 
infrastructure for prediction markets. Financial terms were not disclosed, […]

Prediction Marketplace Giant Polymarket Acquires YC-Backed Startup Dome

Nasdaq&#8217;s move into tokenization could accelerate blockchain adoption in 
traditional finance, potentially reshaping asset management and trading.
The post Nasdaq hires product manager to lead tokenization innovation appeared 
first on Crypto Briefing.

Cryptocurrency price in THB