The Bitcoin market experienced a short-lived rebound, as prices broke through 
the long-standing $70,000 resistance to briefly touch the $74,000 mark before 
dipping again. Whether this price action represents an initial retest for a 
potential market recovery remains widely unknown. Meanwhile, on-chain data has 
highlighted a divergence between growth rates of the Bitcoin market cap and 
realized cap, which could provide more insight into the present market 
conditions. Related Reading: Bitcoin May Hit $180,000 This Year, But Only If 
This Scenario Plays Out: Amber Data BTC Market Cap Lags Behind Realized Cap 
Expansion The Bitcoin market cap represents the combined spot valuation of all 
circulating BTC tokens, while the realized cap estimates the value of these 
coins based on the price at which they last moved on-chain. According to 
market analyst CryptoZeno in a QuickTake post on Friday, changes in both 
metrics are key to interpreting market conditions. Amid dominant bullish 
markets, market cap records a higher growth rate than realized cap, as 
speculative demand results in heightened market inflows while distribution 
slows down. Eventually, a sustained price rise above the aggregate cost basis 
is observed, resulting in BTC market cap expansion. However, recent data shows 
that realized cap is presently gaining faster than its counterpart, creating a 
puzzling market situation considering the recent positive price action. 
Notably, a negative growth differential has emerged between the market cap and 
the realized cap, with the 365-day SMA indicating that the market cap is now 
lagging behind the realized cap. According to CryptoZeno, this phenomenon is 
observed during increasing profit-taking activities, as redistribution starts 
picking up steam again. At this point, price momentum slows down, while the 
realized cap is continuously adjusted upwards. However, this development does 
not indicate an immediate market top, but rather that Bitcoin is transitioning 
into a phase where capital redistribution becomes more prominent. At this 
point, the market must discover additional demand if there will be any 
sustained bullish trend. If speculative demand strengthens again, market cap 
growth could regain momentum and move back above realized cap expansion, 
reinforcing a bullish structure. On the other hand, if realized cap continues 
to expand faster, the current trend may reflect a market gradually digesting 
sell-side pressure while waiting for stronger buying interest to emerge. 
Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Brief Rally Isn’t The End Of The Bear Market, 
Analysts Say Bitcoin Price Overview At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at 
$67,832 after a 4:89% loss over the last day. Meanwhile, daily trading volume 
is down by 15.15% and valued at $44.84 billion. Featured image from Pexels, 
chart from Tradingview

Bitcoin On-Chain Data Identifies Unusual Market Cap Behavior – Details

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Market analyst Ali Martinez highlights a recent development on the Bitcoin 
3-day chart with significant bearish implications. The leading cryptocurrency 
still trades just below the $70,000 mark following the temporary breakout 
earlier this week. Bitcoin has now spent an overwhelming majority of the last 
month within the $60,000 &#8211; $70,000 price range, after prices crashed to a new 
market low in late January/early February amid the extended bearish season. 
Related Reading: Bitcoin May Hit $180,000 This Year, But Only If This Scenario 
Plays Out: Amber Data Bitcoin Set For Another Leg Down? In an X post on March 
6, Martinez shares a key macro insight on the Bitcoin price trajectory, using 
historical data from the 3-day trading chart. The seasoned analyst explains 
that the formation of a particular death cross has consistently preceded the 
final price drawdown in the market cycle. Generally, the death cross 
represents a bearish technical indicator where a short-term moving average 
falls below the long-term moving average, indicating that recent price 
momentum has weakened relative to the longer-term trend, and there is rising 
selling pressure coupled with a potential prolonged downturn. The common 
version of the death cross appears when the 50-day moving average crosses 
below the 200-day moving average, and is a key bearish indicator in the 
Bitcoin market, according to observations shared by Martinez. In 2013, Bitcoin 
had notably crashed by 72% before the 50/200 SMA death cross appeared. 
Thereafter, the market leader recorded an additional 52% price fall, before 
reaching a price bottom. A similar pattern is observed in 2017, when Bitcoin 
declined by 67% from its market peak before the appearance of the death cross, 
which triggers an additional 50% crash. For the last market cycle, the 50/200 
SMA death cross appeared in May 2022, when Bitcoin was prominently down by 58% 
from its cycle top. Thereafter, BTC investors would experience another 46% 
devaluation. According to data from CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin is presently down 
by 45.62% from the present cycle high of $126,100 following an extended 
bearish phase that has lasted since October. Notably, price movement has also 
minted another death cross on the 3-day chart, indicating a potential major 
downside could occur based on precedents. In this case, Bitcoin may fall by an 
additional average 49% to establish a potential bottom around $33,500. 
However, Martinez warns that this price setup provides no bearish guarantee, 
but only historical alignment with macro bottom formations. Related Reading: 
Bitcoin Bounce Fails As Short-Term Holders Rush To Take Profit Bitcoin Price 
Overview At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $68,235 following a 4.21% 
decline in the last 24 hours. Following recent positive price action, the 
maiden cryptocurrency is up by 3.59% on its weekly chart. However, Bitcoin 
remains far off a bullish turnaround as indicated by current losses of 4.49% 
on the monthly chart. Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview

Bitcoin Sees Historic Death Cross On 3-Day Chart — What Does This Mean?

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Cryptocurrency price in THB