Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory is drawing renewed focus as macro signals, 
institutional adoption, and policy tailwinds challenge traditional market 
cycles, with Fundstrat’s Tom Lee standing by a $250,000 price target into 
2026. From Cycle to Supercycle: Tom Lee Says Bitcoin’s $250K Path Signals a 
Historic Reset Global markets continue to face shifting macro forces as 
analysts […]

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee Sees Bitcoin Breaking the 4-Year Cycle, Doubles Down on $250K Target

Regulators such as the IMF have warned that stablecoins could disrupt 
traditional finance. But the numbers show interest is high. Very high.

Stablecoins go mainstream as transaction volumes hit $33 trillion

Bitcoin is struggling to maintain the $90,000 level after a sharp rejection 
from the $94,000 resistance zone, keeping market sentiment sharply divided. 
While some analysts argue that BTC is entering a deeper corrective phase, 
others believe the pullback is a necessary reset before a renewed upside 
attempt. The current price action reflects this uncertainty, with volatility 
rising as buyers and sellers battle for short-term control. Related Reading: 
Bitcoin Tests Key Resistance While $4.7B In Sell-Side Liquidity Builds 
According to an analysis shared by Axel Adler, Bitcoin’s short-term risk 
structure remains fragile. His short-term risk chart places BTC below the 
Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis, currently estimated near $100,200. Price 
is also trading beneath all major moving averages, including the 128-day, 
200-day, and 365-day SMAs, reinforcing the view that the broader structure is 
still bearish. At current levels around $91,000, Bitcoin sits in a moderate 
risk zone, positioned between the STH Cost Basis and the -15% downside 
boundary. This positioning suggests that recent rebounds should be treated 
cautiously. Until BTC reclaims the STH Cost Basis, upside moves are more 
likely to represent technical bounces within a downward trend rather than a 
confirmed reversal. Conversely, a breakdown below the moderate risk boundary 
would signal rising downside risk and could accelerate selling pressure. As a 
result, the $90K–$100K range remains a critical battleground for Bitcoin’s 
next directional move. STH Losses Continue To Cap Bitcoin’s Upside Adler’s 
analysis also highlights a second critical framework: the chart tracking 
Bitcoin’s all-time highs alongside euphoria zones and the Short-Term Holder 
Market Value to Realized Value (STH MVRV) indicator. This metric measures the 
ratio between Bitcoin’s current market price and the average realized price of 
coins held by short-term investors, offering a direct view into the 
profitability—and behavior—of this highly reactive cohort. At present, STH 
MVRV sits near 0.92, well below its historical mean of roughly 1.09 and 
decisively under the neutral level of 1.0. In practical terms, this implies 
that the average short-term holder is holding an unrealized loss of about 8%. 
Historically, periods where STH MVRV remains below 1.0 have tended to coincide 
with either capitulation phases or extended consolidation ranges, rather than 
sustained bullish expansions. The last clear euphoria zone on this chart 
appeared during the all-time high update in October 2025, underscoring how far 
current conditions are from a speculative extreme. As long as STH MVRV remains 
below breakeven, short-term holders are incentivized to sell into rallies as 
the price approaches their cost basis. This behavior creates persistent 
overhead supply and reinforces structural resistance near the STH Cost Basis, 
close to the $100,000 level. Consequently, reclaiming that zone is not just a 
psychological milestone but a necessary condition for any meaningful regime 
shift back to a bullish market structure. Related Reading: XRP Sees Back-to- 
Back Liquidation Waves: Binance Absorbs Majority Of Liquidations Bitcoin Price 
Recovery Lacks Confirmation Bitcoin’s price action on the daily chart reflects 
a market still trapped in a fragile recovery attempt after a sharp rejection 
from higher levels. Following the failed breakout above the $94,000–$95,000 
area, BTC experienced a decisive sell-off that pushed the price back toward 
the $85,000 zone, where buyers stepped in aggressively. This reaction marked a 
short-term bottom, but the subsequent rebound has so far lacked structural 
strength. At present, Bitcoin is trading near the $90,000–$91,000 region, a 
former support that has now turned into a key pivot. Price remains below the 
200-day and 365-day moving averages, both of which are sloping downward and 
acting as dynamic resistance. The 128-day moving average has also capped 
recent upside attempts, reinforcing the idea that the broader trend remains 
corrective rather than impulsively bullish. Related Reading: Bitcoin Enters 
Accumulation Regime: Market Supported By Seller Exhaustion, Not Buying Surge 
From a structure standpoint, the chart shows a sequence of lower highs since 
the October peak, suggesting that sellers continue to control the macro trend. 
Volume expanded notably during the November–December sell-off, while the 
current bounce is unfolding on comparatively lighter participation. This 
divergence implies that the move higher may be more short-covering driven than 
supported by strong spot demand. Unless Bitcoin can reclaim and hold above the 
$94,000–$95,000 resistance zone with increasing volume, the risk of another 
rejection remains elevated. Failure to do so could reopen the path toward the 
$85,000 support, where the market would once again be forced to prove its 
underlying strength. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin Remains In A High-Risk Zone As Short-Term Holders Stay Underwater

Brent Johnson, CEO of wealth management firm Santiago Capital and creator of 
the “Dollar Milkshake Theory,” says that stablecoins may end up being the 
“stealth weapon” that the U.S. will use to establish a global power. 
Stablecoins Could Steal the Sovereignty of Smaller Nations, Expert Says In a 
new interview on the Bankless Youtube channel, […]

Stablecoins a ‘Stealth Weapon’ for US Power, Dollar Milkshake Creator Says

Crypto analyst Bird has indicated that the XRP price may be on course to 
record its greatest rally ever. The analyst alluded to the falling Bitcoin 
dominance as the reason why the altcoin could surge soon enough, noting how 
this development has preceded previous XRP rallies. Analyst Predicts Huge XRP 
Price Rally On The Horizon In an X post, Bird predicted that the XRP price is 
set to record its strongest rally yet based on the breakdown in Bitcoin’s 
dominance. This came as he noted that BTC.D dropped hard the last three times 
when XRP went truly parabolic, in 2018, 2021, and 2024. The 2018 run was when 
XRP rallied to its previous all-time high (ATH). Related Reading: Why XRP Is 
About To Experience A Legendary Next 3 Months Bird stated that after that 
first XRP price ATH between 2018 and 2021, the Bitcoin dominance began to 
trend back up. The BTC.D then backtested the trend and rebuilt strength before 
eventually rolling over. Once that rollover occurred, XRP went parabolic again 
in 2021. A similar scenario is said to have played out in 2024, as Bitcoin’s 
dominance dropped sharply through the trendline, briefly breaking down and 
triggering the surge. The analyst noted that the move in 2024 didn’t fully 
commit as Bitcoin’s dominance recovered and the breakdown failed. However, the 
attempt was enough to send the XRP price flying, reaching all-time highs. Bird 
reiterated that XRP is sensitive to a breakdown in Bitcoin’s dominance, even 
temporarily. Now, a similar move could be playing out again, which could send 
the XRP price to new highs. Bird stated that between 2023 and 2025, the 
Bitcoin dominance has trended up once more, broke down through the trend, 
backtested it from underneath, and is now chopping and rolling over. The 
analyst added that this is the same historical area where XRP has gone 
parabolic before, but that this time the setup is even bigger. The Altcoin 
Could Rally To Double Digits The analyst again alluded to the 2024 run. He 
stated that if a brief uncommitted breakdown in Bitcoin’s dominance was enough 
to send the XRP price surging, then a confirmed breakdown would be 
exponentially stronger. In line with this, Bird remarked that the next move is 
the one that sends XRP into double digits and beyond. Related Reading: Analyst 
Updates XRP Price Prediction: Why $16 Is Still On The Table Bird stated that 
the key difference is what comes next, as this next move isn’t just a fake-out 
or a shallow drop. Instead, it is the one where the Bitcoin dominance finally 
loses the trend for good and breaks down hard toward the lower boundary, 
around the 44 to 40% region. He added that when that happens officially, the 
XRP price doesn’t just run but enters true price discovery. At the time of 
writing, the XRP price is trading at around $2.14, down almost 5% in the last 
24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Adobe 
Stock, chart from Tradingview.com

Cryptocurrency price in SEK