On-chain data shows a chunk of the Bitcoin supply has its cost basis above the current spot price, which could potentially shape volatility if BTC rebounds. Bitcoin Supply Overhang Could Dictate Volatility &amp; Selling Pressure As pointed out by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in a new post on X, over 6.6 million BTC is being held above the latest spot price of the cryptocurrency. The on-chain indicator of relevance here is the &#8220;Supply In Loss,&#8221; which measures, as its name suggests, the total amount of Bitcoin that&#8217;s currently carrying some net unrealized loss. Related Reading: Bitcoin Extreme Fear Streak Extends To 13 Days On Christmas The metric works by going through the transaction history of each token in circulation to determine the price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain. If this previous transfer price was more than the current spot price for any coin, then that particular token is considered to be in a state of loss. The Supply In Loss adds up all coins fulfilling this condition to find the total situation on the network. A counterpart indicator called the Supply In Profit accounts for the supply of the opposite type. Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Supply In Loss over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Supply In Loss shrunk to a value of zero as the asset&#8217;s price set its all-time high (ATH) above $126,000 back in October, but with the market downturn that has followed since then, the indicator&#8217;s value has shot up. Today, around 6.6 million tokens of the cryptocurrency sit below cost basis, equivalent to a third of the BTC supply in circulation. The recent highs in the Supply In Loss represent the highest degree of pain in the market since 2023. In another X post, the analyst has shared the chart for another Bitcoin indicator, this one called the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD). The URPD contains information about how much BTC was bought last at each of the levels that the asset has visited in its history. Looks like a significant portion of the supply sits above the spot price | Source: @JA_Maartun on X From the chart of the URPD, it&#8217;s visible how the Bitcoin supply that&#8217;s in loss is distributed across the various levels right now. A few levels are particularly prominent in the degree of supply that they carry, while some others are notably thin with coins. Generally, investors who are in loss look forward to a retest of their cost basis so that they can get their money &#8220;back.&#8221; Once this happens, some of these hands decide to exit, fearing that BTC will go down again in the near future. This selling can make large supply clusters above the spot price, potential points of volatility. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Trading Near ‘Fair Value,’ Says On-Chain Model Considering that a large portion of the supply is underwater right now, a venture back to higher levels could be met with selling pressure for Bitcoin. BTC Price Bitcoin has made some recovery during the past day as its price has returned to $88,600. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin Supply Overhang: 6.6 Million BTC Bought Above Current Price

A surge in stablecoins, tokenized RWAs and growing sovereign wealth fund 
interest could drive a major increase in Ethereum’s TVL in 2026, Sharplink’s 
co-CEO said.

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Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said a former customer service agent was arrested 
in India, months after hackers bribed support staff to gain access to 
sensitive customer information at the largest U.S.-based crypto exchange.

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Bitcoin is struggling to regain momentum below the $90,000 level, yet it 
continues to hold above $86,000, reflecting a market gripped by indecision. 
Price action has narrowed into a tight range, with neither buyers nor sellers 
able to assert clear control. As volatility compresses, apathy has become a 
defining feature of the current environment, and an increasing number of 
analysts are openly discussing the possibility that the market is 
transitioning toward a broader bear phase. Related Reading: XRP Exchange 
Reserves On Binance Fall To Six-Month Low: Selling Pressure Is Easing While 
price levels dominate headlines, on-chain data suggests the more important 
battle is unfolding beneath the surface. According to CryptoQuant analyst 
Burak Kesmeci, Bitcoin’s current positioning cannot be understood by price 
alone. Instead, attention is shifting toward the cost bases of key market 
participants, particularly whales and Binance spot users. Even with Bitcoin 
trading around $87,000, the most consequential level sits significantly 
higher. Data shows that the average cost basis of new whales, defined as 
holders with coins younger than 155 days, is clustered around $100,500. This 
zone represents a critical break-even threshold for large players who entered 
the market recently. As a result, every approach toward $100,000 carries 
heightened significance. That level may either trigger distribution, as whales 
seek to protect capital, or mark the start of renewed accumulation if 
confidence returns. Cost Basis Data Maps Bitcoin Real Support and Resistance 
The report highlights that beneath Bitcoin’s current price action, cost basis 
data offers a clearer framework for understanding market risk. For Binance 
spot users, the average cost basis sits near $56,000. This level represents 
the largest concentration of spot volume in the market and effectively defines 
the “deep water” zone if conditions deteriorate. In a prolonged bearish phase, 
$56K is where the bulk of spot holders would be tested, making it a critical 
long-term support area rather than a short-term trading level. Long-term whale 
positioning adds another important layer. The cost basis for whales holding 
Bitcoin longer than 155 days is clustered around $40,000. This means these 
participants are still sitting on profits of more than 2x, even after the 
recent correction. That profit cushion helps explain the rise in realized 
gains seen over recent weeks. For many long-term holders, current prices 
already represent a satisfactory exit, increasing the incentive to distribute 
into strength rather than aggressively accumulate. Taken together, the data 
reframes Bitcoin’s market structure. The key short-term ceiling remains near 
$100,000, where newer whales approach breakeven and supply tends to emerge. On 
the downside, $56,000 stands out as the level where spot market conviction 
would be most severely tested. Related Reading: Ethereum Bearish Structure 
Meets Bullish Supply Signal – What Happens Next Bitcoin Consolidates Above Key 
Weekly Support as Momentum Cools Bitcoin is trading near the $88,700 level on 
the weekly chart, stabilizing after a sharp pullback from the 
$120,000–$125,000 highs reached earlier this cycle. While the broader uptrend 
from 2024 remains intact, recent price action signals a clear slowdown in 
momentum. The market has shifted from an impulsive expansion phase into a 
corrective and consolidative structure, with volatility compressing around a 
critical support zone. Technically, Bitcoin is holding just above its rising 
medium-term moving average, which has acted as dynamic support throughout this 
bull cycle. The rejection above $110,000 marked a decisive loss of upside 
control, and the failure to quickly reclaim that zone suggests distribution 
rather than a brief pause. At the same time, price remains well above the 
long-term moving average, reinforcing that this move is still corrective 
within a larger trend, not yet a confirmed trend reversal. Related Reading: 
Bitcoin and Ethereum Coinbase Inflows Collapse While Binance Retains Relative 
Activity – Details Volume dynamics support this interpretation. Selling 
pressure expanded during the initial breakdown, but recent weeks show 
declining volume as price stabilizes between roughly $86,000 and $90,000. This 
points to seller exhaustion, though buyers have yet to step in with 
conviction. Structurally, the $86,000–$88,000 range is pivotal. Holding this 
zone keeps the higher-timeframe bullish structure alive. A clean breakdown 
would expose deeper downside. While a recovery above $95,000 would be needed 
to reassert bullish momentum and reopen the path toward prior highs. Featured 
image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Why $100,000 Is Bitcoin’s Most Important Resistance Level

Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped below $87,000, down from the intraday high of 
$89,000. Similarly, Binance Coin (BNB), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Canton dropped by 
over 3% in the last 24 hours.

Cryptocurrency price in SEK