Tom Lee used a Hong Kong conference stage to argue that Ethereum may be close 
to a cyclical turn, pointing to historical market analogs and on-chain cost- 
basis data that, in his view, suggest the selloff has reached exhaustion. 
Speaking at the 3rd Futu Expo 2026 in Hong Kong on March 13–14, Lee said 
Bitmine advisor Tom DeMark had identified a striking resemblance between 
Ethereum’s recent price action and two major S&amp;P 500 declines: the 1987 crash 
and the 2011 selloff. Lee described the setup as unusually tight. Is The 
Ethereum Bottom In? “Tom DeMark, he’s a legendary market timer, and he’s 
provided an analysis to us that says Ethereum, in the last few months, 
especially since October, is really mirroring what happened to the S&amp;P 500 in 
2011 and what happened to the S&amp;P 500 in 1987,” Lee said. “If you were 
involved in US markets, both times marked major declines in the S&amp;P. Well, 
according to him, there’s a 93% correlation to what Ethereum’s doing today to 
what the S&amp;P did in 1987.” Related Reading: Ethereum Enters High-Leverage 
Regime As Binance Exposure Crosses 75% That comparison is doing a lot of work 
in Lee’s argument. If the 1987 analog holds, he said, Ethereum would have 
already bottomed on March 7. If the 2011 comparison is the better fit, the 
market is bottoming now. In either case, Lee’s conclusion was the same: “So 
using his analysis, we think we’re at the bottom or exiting the crypto winter 
now.” He did not leave the case resting on chart symmetry alone. Lee also 
pointed to Ethereum’s realized price, the on-chain metric that estimates the 
average acquisition cost of coins based on their last movement on the 
blockchain. In his telling, that figure now sits at $2,241 for ETH, giving 
investors a way to judge how deeply underwater the average holder has become. 
Lee said the pattern at prior lows is revealing. In 2022, Ethereum fell to a 
39% discount to realized price. In 2025, the discount reached 21% before ETH 
turned higher. “Currently, we’re at 22%,” he said, adding that the market is 
now sitting in roughly the same zone where last year’s reversal began. “So 
we’re at the level where in 2025, Ethereum started to turn higher.” Related 
Reading: Bitwise Found What’s Really Driving Ethereum Price, And It’s Not 
Fundamentals In other words, Lee’s thesis is that Ethereum does not need a 
pristine macro backdrop or a fresh narrative cycle to stabilize; it only needs 
to revisit the kind of holder pain that has historically marked exhaustion. By 
his measure, that threshold is already here. TOM LEE: THE ETHEREUM BOTTOM IS 
IN ‼️ Bitmine x TOM DEMARK mapped ETH against past S&amp;P 500 crash recoveries. 
The structure now closely matches 1987 and 2011, both major cycle bottoms. 🔹 
93% correlation to 1987 🔹 Match to 2011 bottom 🔹 Realized price: $2,241 🔹 ETH 
~22%… pic.twitter.com/62TZscjChe — BMNR Bullz (@BMNRBullz) March 19, 2026 He 
also tried to zoom out from the immediate drawdown and re-anchor ETH in a 
longer time horizon. “Before you lose any hope, keep in mind that over the 
last 10 years, Ethereum has outperformed every other asset class over the past 
decade,” Lee said. “In the last 10 years, Ethereum’s return is 49,000%. That 
means almost 490 times your money.” Lee contrasted that with Bitcoin’s 11,000% 
gain over the same span and even with Nvidia, which he called “the single best 
stock in the US,” saying it had returned 65 times investors’ money. At press 
time, ETH traded at $2,147. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from 
TradingView.com

Tom Lee Says Ethereum Looks Ready To Exit Crypto Winter

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