Bitcoin faces mounting volatility as geopolitical tensions and surging oil 
prices rattle global markets, with Wintermute warning that macro forces — not 
crypto fundamentals — now threaten to dictate the sector’s next decisive move. 
Analysts Warn Energy Shock Could Delay Crypto Recovery Global markets are 
recalibrating as geopolitical tensions reshape expectations for risk assets. 
Bitcoin […]

Bitcoin Outlook Tied to Oil, Fed Policy as Conflict Escalates

Super PACs backed by the crypto industry are expected to spend millions of 
dollars in the 2026 midterm elections after many of their chosen candidates 
won in 2024.

What’s at stake for crypto as 3 US states kick off party primaries?

Joe Burnett, VP of Bitcoin Strategy at Strive (Nasdaq: ASST), is arguing that 
bitcoin could reach $11 million by the first quarter of 2036, not because it 
replaces the financial system, but because it becomes the dominant long- 
duration savings asset in an economy reshaped by AI-led deflation and repeated 
monetary expansion. His thesis, laid out in a March 2 Substack note, frames 
bitcoin less as a speculative trade and more as the asset most likely to 
absorb excess liquidity in a world of falling production costs and chronic 
policy intervention. Burnett’s base case implies a bitcoin network value of 
roughly $230 trillion by 2036. He sets that against a global financial asset 
base that he estimates could grow from more than $1 quadrillion today to about 
$1.97 quadrillion over the next decade, assuming 7% annual compounding. In 
that framework, bitcoin would account for around 12% of global financial 
assets. “That outcome reflects a measured repricing of global wealth toward 
the only monetary asset with absolute scarcity,” Burnett wrote. “Bitcoin does 
not need to replace all currencies. It does not need universal daily 
transactional use. It only needs to become the primary long-duration savings 
asset in a world defined by monetary expansion and technology deflation.” The 
Bitcoin 2036 AI-Deflation Thesis At the center of the argument is what Burnett 
calls the “AI deflation engine.” His view is that artificial intelligence will 
compress labor costs, speed up output and intensify competition across both 
digital and physical industries, creating sustained downward pressure on 
prices. He compares the shift to the automobile’s displacement of horses, but 
argues that this time the target is white-collar labor. AI, he wrote, is 
already drafting contracts, analyzing financials, writing code and handling 
research once performed by junior professionals, while robotics continue 
pushing into logistics, manufacturing and agriculture. Related Reading: 
Bitcoin Prints Fifth Straight Red Month; Previous Streak Was Followed By 300% 
Surge In a neutral monetary system, he argues, that kind of productivity boom 
would simply raise real purchasing power. In a debt-based fiat system, it 
becomes destabilizing. Falling wages, weaker asset prices and fixed nominal 
liabilities do not mix well. “As AI drives real-economy deflation, central 
banks and fiscal authorities expand liquidity to prevent a deflationary 
spiral,” Burnett wrote. “The more effective AI becomes at reducing costs, the 
more aggressive the monetary response becomes to prevent debt deflation.” That 
policy reflex is the bridge to bitcoin. Burnett argues that every deflationary 
shock begins with a move into cash and sovereign bonds, but that phase tends 
to give way to rate cuts, balance-sheet expansion, credit support and fiscal 
transfers. He points to earlier episodes in 1987, 2001, 2008, 2020 and 2022 as 
evidence that policymakers do not tolerate sustained deflation. In his 
telling, the long-run result is persistent productivity deflation paired with 
persistent monetary expansion, a mix that leaves capital searching for an 
asset whose supply cannot be politically expanded. From there, Burnett widens 
the lens. Equities, in his view, are increasingly exposed to AI-driven 
creative destruction. Real estate retains scarcity value, but technology could 
accelerate design, permitting and construction, limiting long-run upside. 
Sovereign bonds, meanwhile, offer nominal stability while remaining tied to 
currencies subject to ongoing dilution. Bitcoin, he argues, sits in a 
different category because its supply cap, divisibility, portability and 
verifiability make it uniquely suited to absorb global liquidity over time. He 
also ties that thesis to a newer market structure he calls “Digital Credit” — 
income-generating securities backed by large bitcoin balance sheets. Burnett 
cites publicly traded instruments such as STRC and SATA as examples of 
vehicles that offer dollar income to credit investors while channeling capital 
into additional bitcoin accumulation. That, he argues, could create a 
reflexive loop between global yield demand and bitcoin buying. Related 
Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment On Wall Street Has Turned Negative, Galaxy’s Thorn 
Says The note leans heavily on scarcity math. Burnett writes that by 2036, 
fewer than 41,000 new BTC will be issued over the entire year. If global 
financial assets reach roughly $2 quadrillion and only 1% of one year’s 
incremental capital formation seeks monetary preservation in bitcoin, that 
would still amount to $1.4 trillion competing for that limited new supply — or 
roughly $34 million of demand per newly issued coin. “The path will not be 
smooth, but the conclusion will become increasingly obvious,” Burnett wrote. 
“Bitcoin’s trajectory toward eight-figure price levels reflects structural 
monetary conditions rather than speculative enthusiasm and ‘belief.’ As 
liquidity continues expanding within a technologically deflationary world, 
capital will concentrate into assets capable of preserving value across time.” 
His closing point is less about straight-line appreciation than timing. 
Markets, he argues, still price bitcoin as a volatile cyclical asset. The next 
decade, in his view, will increasingly price it as monetary infrastructure. 
Whether that transition plays out anywhere near his $11 million target, 
Burnett’s thesis is clear: if AI keeps driving abundance and policymakers keep 
offsetting it with liquidity, bitcoin may be where a growing share of global 
capital ends up. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $66,958. Featured image 
created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin To $11 Million By 2036? This AI-Deflation Thesis Is Turning Heads

In an interview with Natalie Brunell on Coin Stories, Masie described Bitcoin 
as functional currency in parts of Africa amid rapid inflation and currency 
debasement.

Locals prefer satoshis to dollars, says Africa Bitcoin chair Stafford Masie

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says the Iran attack weekend showed how onchain 
markets like Hyperliquid are becoming key venues for global trading.
The post Bitwise CIO says weekend Iran strike exposed advantage of 24/7 
markets like Hyperliquid appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

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