Michael Selig was chief counsel for the SEC Crypto Task Force but left in 
December last year to become chair of the Commodity Futures Trading 
Commission.

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XRP is struggling to hold the $1.40 level as persistent selling pressure 
continues to weigh on market sentiment. Price action remains fragile, 
reflecting broader uncertainty across the crypto sector. Bitcoin continues to 
trade within a range, offering limited directional clarity in the short term. 
This lack of decisive momentum is filtering through the market, leaving 
altcoins — including XRP — particularly vulnerable to underperformance in the 
absence of a strong macro trend. Related Reading: XRP’s Brutal Supply 
Compression Signals A Repeat Of The 2024 Expansion Recent market activity has 
also drawn attention to exchange flows. Binance absorbed a massive inflow this 
week, cementing its status as the premier venue for high-volume transactions. 
On-chain data shows that more than 31 million XRP were transferred to the 
exchange in a single day yesterday, a movement that naturally raises questions 
about potential short-term supply dynamics. Large inflows to exchanges can 
sometimes precede selling activity, although they do not guarantee immediate 
distribution. They may also reflect repositioning, hedging, or internal 
liquidity management. Still, in a market already facing cautious sentiment, 
such flows tend to reinforce short-term uncertainty around XRP’s price 
stability. Large Holder Inflows Raise Short-Term Sell Pressure Concerns On- 
chain breakdowns show that the recent inflows were largely driven by larger 
holder cohorts, reinforcing the view that this was not retail-led activity. 
Addresses holding less than 1,000 XRP accounted for just 6,543 tokens, while 
the 1,000–10,000 bracket contributed 73,630 XRP. In contrast, the bulk of the 
movement originated from higher tiers: 10,000–100,000 holders transferred 
2,938,809 XRP, the 100,000–1 million cohort moved 14,236,825 XRP, and wallets 
holding more than 1 million XRP sent 14,494,865 tokens to Binance. This 
distribution highlights that the overwhelming share of the 31 million XRP 
inflow came from large participants. At current price levels, the aggregate 
transfer represents nearly $45 million in potential sell-side liquidity. While 
exchange inflows do not automatically translate into immediate liquidation, 
they do increase the amount of readily tradable supply on the order books. In 
a market already facing muted momentum and broader uncertainty, such a 
concentration of large-holder deposits warrants close monitoring. If these 
flows evolve into sustained distribution, XRP could face renewed downward 
pressure. Under those conditions, the asset may struggle to stage a meaningful 
recovery from its ongoing corrective phase in the near term. Related Reading: 
The Great Bitcoin Handover: $8.2 Billion BTC Swamps Binance As Retail Momentum 
Fades XRP Tests Structural Support As Downtrend Persists XRP continues to 
trade under sustained technical pressure, with the 3-day chart confirming a 
broader corrective structure that began after the 2025 peak above $3.50. Since 
that high, price action has formed a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, 
signaling weakening bullish momentum rather than consolidation. The most 
recent decline toward the $1.30–$1.40 region places XRP at a critical support 
zone that previously acted as a launchpad during earlier expansion phases. 
Technically, XRP is trading below the shorter- and medium-term moving 
averages, both of which are now sloping downward and acting as dynamic 
resistance. The longer-term average remains upward sloping but has flattened 
noticeably, reflecting fading macro momentum. Until price reclaims the 
$1.80–$2.00 range with strong volume, upside attempts are likely to face 
supply pressure near these moving averages. Related Reading: Ethereum Breaks 
the Final Whale Floor In A 2018-Style Capitulation: What To Expect Volume has 
moderated compared with the impulsive rally phase, suggesting reduced 
speculative participation. However, recent spikes during sharp selloffs 
indicate active distribution rather than passive drift. If the $1.30 support 
region fails decisively, a deeper retracement toward the $1.10–$1.20 zone 
becomes plausible. Conversely, stabilization above current levels could open 
the door to a short-term relief bounce, though broader structure remains 
fragile. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin price failed to stay above $66,000 and dipped further. BTC is now 
consolidating losses and might struggle to recover above $66,000. Bitcoin 
started a fresh decline and traded below the $66,000 support. The price is 
trading below $65,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a 
bearish trend line forming with resistance at $66,800 on the hourly chart of 
the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it 
trades below the $63,500 and $63,200 levels. Bitcoin Price Breaks Key Support 
Bitcoin price failed to remain stable above the $66,500 zone. BTC started a 
fresh decline and traded below the $66,000 support zone. There was a push 
below $65,000. The price even spiked below $64,000. A low was formed at 
$63,351, and the price is now correcting some losses. There was a move above 
$64,000, but the price is still well below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of 
the recent decline from the $68,652 swing high to the $63,351 low. Bitcoin is 
now trading below $66,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the 
price remains stable above $64,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. 
Immediate resistance is near the $64,600 level. The first key resistance is 
near the $65,250 level. A close above the $65,250 resistance might send the 
price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the 
$66,000 resistance or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from 
the $68,652 swing high to the $63,351 low. Any more gains might send the price 
toward the $66,800 level. There is also a bearish trend line forming with 
resistance at $66,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The next 
barrier for the bulls could be $67,500 and $67,700. Another Decline In BTC? If 
Bitcoin fails to rise above the $65,250 resistance zone, it could start 
another decline. Immediate support is near the $64,000 level. The first major 
support is near the $63,500 level. The next support is now near the $63,200 
zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $62,650 support in the 
near term. The main support now sits at $62,000, below which BTC might 
struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The 
MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength 
Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – 
$64,000, followed by $63,500. Major Resistance Levels – $65,000 and $66,000.

Bitcoin Price Sinks to New Weekly Low, Bulls Lose Key Support

Dogecoin has pushed a cycle-style positioning metric to a level never seen 
before in its history, and the chart’s context suggests the market has only 
been in comparable territory twice, both times near major cycle lows. 
Alphractal founder and CEO Joao Wedson said DOGE has now crossed a key 
threshold in his “Number of Days Spent at a Profit” indicator. “For the first 
time, Dogecoin has accumulated more than 1,100 days in the past where the 
price was higher than today’s level,” Wedson wrote on X alongside the chart. 
“The Number of Days Spent at a Profit measures how many historical days traded 
above the current price, reflecting market memory and the aggregated 
positioning of holders over time. The higher the value, the longer the 
historical period that was traded at levels above the current price.” Related 
Reading: Ready For A 443% Dogecoin Move? The Meme Coin Just Touched A 
Historically Explosive Level The indicator is straightforward: it counts how 
many prior days in DOGE’s trading history printed prices above the current 
level. A higher reading implies today’s price sits below a larger share of 
Dogecoin’s historical “tape,” which can be interpreted as an expanded 
footprint of prior trading levels above spot—what Wedson calls “market 
memory.” What This Could Mean For Dogecoin The chart adds an important 
historical tell. Before this latest surge toward the 1,100+ day milestone, 
Dogecoin only moved above the 800-day level twice. Those two instances 
occurred around the March 2020 bottom and the October 2023 bottom, according 
to the chart and Wedson’s framing. Related Reading: Dogecoin Price Faces 
Critical Test As $0.074 Support Comes Into Focus In both historical cases, the 
move above 800 days coincided with a major turning point that was followed by 
parabolic runs in subsequent months. From the March 2020 low to the November 
2021 peak, DOGE rallied from about $0.0011 to its all-time high near $0.76, a 
gain of more than 65,000%. From the October 2023 low to December 2024, DOGE 
rose roughly 750%, climbing from about $0.0569 to $0.4846. Wedson emphasized 
that this is not a signal about an intraday swing but a longer-horizon 
condition. “This is a structural cycle metric, not just a short-term move,” he 
said—positioning the new 1,100+ day milestone as a regime-level datapoint 
about where today’s price sits versus Dogecoin’s historical distribution. The 
open question from here is whether this unprecedented reading will behave like 
prior extremes, where elevated “days above current price” aligned with cycle 
lows, or whether the market’s current structure breaks that historical rhyme. 
At press time, DOGE traded at $0.09705. Featured image created with DALL.E, 
chart from TradingView.com

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