Crypto analyst Ardi has pointed to a bear market divergence to explain what 
has been going on with Bitcoin’s price for a while now. His analysis comes 
just as BTC continues to struggle to hold above $70,000 amid the U.S.-Iran war 
and rising oil prices. Analyst Explains What Is Happening With Bitcoin as 
Price Struggles In an X post, Ardi noted that this is the first time in this 
bear market that Bitcoin’s price and open interest have diverged on an 
intermediate timeframe. BTC has climbed over the last six weeks to a low of 
around $60,000 while its open interest has declined during the same period. He 
stated that this indicates the recent rally wasn’t driven by new buyers 
entering, but rather by a large part of it being shorts closing their 
positions. Related Reading: How Low Can Bitcoin Price Go? Analyst Shares 
Worst-Case Scenario The analyst further remarked that traders who shorted the 
Bitcoin top like saw the drop to $60,000 and felt it was a good position to 
take profits. “They locked profit. They exited. That exit pressure pushed the 
price up,” he said. However, Ardi added that this development is not the same 
as fresh demand, which is sufficient for a reversal. He said that open 
interest typically rises when the Bitcoin rally has real strength, as shorts 
close and longs open to replace them. Meanwhile, new capital enters, forming 
the foundation for the bullish reversal in BTC. Ardi declared that none of 
that has happened in this range, with trading activity one-sided even as the 
leading crypto climbed to as high as $75,000 last week. Ardi said that the 
problem is that short covering has a ceiling, and once the last short has 
closed, the source of upward pressure is gone, leaving no other factor to 
sustain the move to the upside. How It Could Play Out For BTC In The Near Term 
Crypto analyst Colin noted that Bitcoin has been tracking inside the channel 
of a bear flag since the February 6 low. In line with this, he opined that BTC 
will eventually break down and that it is not a question of if but when. The 
analyst also questioned how high the leading crypto will rise before it 
suffers this breakdown. Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Price Is Showing 
Dangerous Weakness, Here’s Why Colin opined that the highest price Bitcoin 
might reach before this projected breakdown is around $80,000. He described 
this as the best-case scenario at this point and that BTC might not even reach 
this psychological level. However, the analyst also admitted that there are 
some outlier outcomes, like BTC rising above $80,000 if the U.S.-Iran war 
suddenly ends. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around 
$70,700, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. 
Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

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