Bitcoin could be vulnerable to another sharp leg lower if a developing wedge 
pattern breaks down, according to market technician Aksel Kibar, whose latest 
chart work points to a possible move toward $52,500. The warning matters 
because Kibar is not framing this as a macro hot take or a sentiment call, but 
as a pure technical risk signal built around the same structure he flagged 
before Bitcoin’s earlier selloff. In one of his latest posts on X, Kibar 
wrote: “See my analysis at the time of the previous bearish wedge pattern. A 
similar pattern might be developing. Not a prediction. Breakdown of the lower 
boundary will be the signal for a possible move towards 52.5K.” That caveat is 
central to the setup. He is not saying Bitcoin must trade there. He is saying 
a confirmed loss of structure (currently around $66,000) would open that path 
on the chart. History Repeating For Bitcoin? Kibar paired that with a broader 
point about trade management rather than directional conviction. “If you got 
in with a chart signal, you should get out with the chart signal,” he wrote. 
In a follow-up, he added: “How can charting be used as a risk management tool? 
By moving to the sidelines when the time is not right, protects capital, frees 
it for other opportunities.” Read together, the message is less about calling 
a dramatic collapse than about respecting invalidation when a technical setup 
fails. Related Reading: Bitcoin Has Entered A Rare Zone Against Gold, Fidelity 
Says The backdrop is a call Kibar made on Jan. 19, when Bitcoin was 
consolidating beneath what he treats as its long-term trend filter, the 
365-day EMA. At the time, with price trading inside a rising wedge and getting 
rejected near the upper boundary around $97,000, he wrote: “The consolidation 
below the long-term average. With cryptocurrencies I’m taking the 365 day EMA. 
With equities I take 200 day EMA as my year-long average trend filter. So far 
BTCUSD respected the year-long average. This is part of the chop and search 
for a base. The pattern can become a rising wedge, usually bearish in an 
attempt to test 73.7K-76.5K support area.” That support zone eventually came 
under pressure, and the chart he reposted now shows a deeper washout toward 
the $60,000 area before the latest rebound began tracing what he says may be a 
similar wedge. Related Reading: Bitcoin Long-Term MVRV Remains In 
‘Opportunity’ Zone: Data Notably, Kibar is one of the most respected technical 
analysts on X. He is a Chartered Market Technician and founder of Tech Charts 
LLC, and before launching his own research firm he worked as a senior 
technical analyst and fund manager at National Bank of Abu Dhabi, as well as a 
portfolio manager at Abu Dhabi Investment Company. The CMT Association also 
lists him as a presenter and contributor. For Bitcoin traders, the immediate 
implication is straightforward. When Kibar speaks, the market tends to pay 
attention. As long as price remains inside the wedge or breaks out, bulls have 
little to worry about. But a break below $66,000 could open the door to 
another drawdown toward $52,000. At press time, BTC traded at $70,259. 
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin Risks Drop To $52,000, Veteran Analyst Aksel Kibar Says

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