Swan Bitcoin Managing Director John Haar argued on Wednesday that the market’s 
repeated comparison between the current cycle and the 2022 bear market misses 
a fundamental point: the backdrop has changed. In a post on X, Haar said 
Bitcoin’s roughly $65,000 to $70,000 range has acted as a floor for the past 
two months and may already represent the cycle bottom. His case rests on a 
simple distinction. The forces that broke Bitcoin in 2022: inflation shock, 
aggressive monetary tightening, collapsing liquidity and industry-wide 
contagion are, in his view, either gone or materially weaker today. “Those 
predicting a further decline are drawing comparisons to 2022,” Haar wrote. 
“But the macro, regulatory, and institutional landscape today is fundamentally 
different. The nine structural factors below illustrate why the 2022 analogy 
is unlikely to hold.” A Different Macro Regime Haar began with the macro 
backdrop, framing inflation and monetary policy as the first major break from 
the last cycle. In 2022, he noted, CPI hit a 40-year high, eroding purchasing 
power and giving the Federal Reserve a clear reason to tighten policy 
aggressively. Today, he described inflation as having stabilized around 2.5% 
to 3% year over year, a level he sees as far less threatening to risk assets. 
Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Eye $78,000, But Glassnode Urges Caution That 
argument extends to rates, the Fed’s balance sheet and broad money growth. 
Haar wrote that 2022 brought “the fastest rate-hiking cycle in modern 
history,” while the present environment is defined by steady or modestly lower 
rates. He also pointed to what he described as a return of balance-sheet 
expansion and a multi-year run of month-over-month M2 growth, framing both as 
liquidity support rather than a headwind. Fiscal policy features prominently 
in the thread as well. Haar argued that US deficit spending has remained 
elevated at roughly 5% to 6% of GDP for more than three years, with no 
meaningful pullback in sight. Taken together, his message is that the macro 
engine driving the 2022 unwind has been replaced by one that looks, at 
minimum, more neutral and potentially supportive. Contagion, Then And Now 
Haar’s sixth point shifts from macro to crypto market structure. In his 
telling, 2022 was not simply a drawdown but a cascading institutional failure 
across tightly connected firms. Terra/Luna, Celsius, BlockFi, Three Arrows 
Capital, Voyager and FTX collapsed in sequence, amplifying losses and 
destroying confidence across the sector. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Be 
Near A Bigger Breakout As Key Metrics Turn, Capriole Founder Says He 
contrasted that period with today’s environment by arguing that institutional 
counterparties are stronger, even if pockets of stress remain. “BlockFills is 
an example of institutional failure, but its scale is a fraction of the 2022 
failures,” Haar wrote. “This cycle, theories circulate regarding engineered 
cascading selloffs that ultimately caused leveraged crypto funds to implode.” 
Institutional Bitcoin Demand The final stretch of Haar’s thesis centers on 
what he sees as the most important difference between cycles: the scale of 
institutional demand. He wrote that Strategy deployed about $270 million to 
acquire roughly 8,000 BTC in 2022, compared with $22.5 billion in 2025 for 
226,000 BTC and another $8.5 billion year to date in 2026 for 108,000 BTC. He 
paired that with the arrival of spot Bitcoin ETFs and a broader shift in 
institutional posture. “Spot Bitcoin ETFs are live with billions in AUM,” Haar 
wrote. “BlackRock is publicly promoting Bitcoin. Morgan Stanley is launching 
their own spot Bitcoin ETF. Vanguard reversed course and will allow their 
clients to buy spot Bitcoin ETFs.” He also cited Harvard’s endowment as 
holding a sizable Bitcoin position and argued that the federal policy tone in 
the US has become more openly supportive. Haar stopped short of calling the 
floor guaranteed. He included a caveat that Bitcoin can still trade below 
levels that appear technically or structurally supported and warned that 
shocks ranging from war to supply-chain disruption to energy shortages could 
still derail the setup. Still, his broader point was clear: if 2022 was 
defined by tightening, forced liquidations and institutional absence, this 
cycle may be defined by liquidity, access and deeper capital pools. At press 
time, BTC traded at $73,862. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from 
TradingView.com

9 Reasons Why The Bitcoin Bottom May Already Be In: Expert

Netanyahu&#8217;s stance suggests prolonged tension, yet market optimism for a 
ceasefire indicates potential divergence between rhetoric and reality.
The post Netanyahu rejects Hezbollah demand for Israeli army withdrawal from 
Lebanon appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

Netanyahu rejects Hezbollah demand for Israeli army withdrawal from Lebanon

The ceasefire could stabilize regional tensions, but ongoing military 
operations and diplomatic developments will influence its durability.
The post Israel and Hezbollah agree to 10-day ceasefire, Trump calls it 
&#8216;historic day&#8217; appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

Israel and Hezbollah agree to 10-day ceasefire, Trump calls it ‘historic day’

Zanzibar police are reportedly holding Asymmetric founder Joe McCann for 
questioning after the death of his fiancée, Ashly Robinson.

Zanzibar police probe crypto exec Joe McCann after fiancée’s death

Grinex has been accused by US authorities of assisting Russia and other 
entities in evading sanctions and laundering funds for Russia-linked hackers.

Cryptocurrency price in PHP