As the Bitcoin price exhibits signs of recovery, climbing back above $90,000, 
the cryptocurrency community finds itself sharply divided. Some analysts 
believe this movement is merely a relief rally preceding another downturn, 
while others maintain that a bull market is still in play despite a recent 30% 
correction. Current Data Suggests No Cycle Top Market analyst OxChain went on 
social media platform X (formerly Twitter), focusing on on-chain data to shed 
light on the current market dynamics and what investors might expect in the 
near future. He argues that the recent downturn does not exhibit 
characteristics typical of a cycle top. In October, Bitcoin reached the 
mid-$120,000 range before experiencing a subsequent decline of approximately 
35%. Notably, this drop transpired without the hype, fervor, or speculation 
that usually accompany a market peak. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Climbs 
Back To $91,000: Is The Decline Over? Key Levels To Watch The loss of nearly 
$1 trillion in market value underscores the underlying challenges. As Ethereum 
(ETH) and mid-cap cryptocurrencies simultaneously declined, there wasn&#8217;t an 
evident frenzy of speculation driving the downturn. Instead, OxChain 
attributes the decline primarily to a drop in demand. A slowdown in stablecoin 
creation and diminished inflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have led to 
reduced buying activity. Derivatives traders have also stepped back, with 
funding conditions softening and open interest unwinding. With market 
expectations recently leaning toward a potential interest rate cut in 
December, many buyers have opted to remain on the sidelines, preferring not to 
chase riskier assets. This hesitancy has led to a “fragile liquidity 
environment,” the analyst asserted. OxChain notes that even medium-sized 
orders can cause price changes of several percentage points due to the 
scarcity of resting bids. An examination of order book snapshots reveals that 
market depth has been waning during active trading periods, leading to a 
scenario where the market appears to be “running on fumes.” Bitcoin Market 
Struggles Without Conviction The situation in the derivatives market further 
supports this cautious outlook. Volatility has risen, with traders now leaning 
toward protective measures rather than building long positions. Interestingly, 
interest in futures contracts has decreased even amid small relief rallies, 
indicating that many traders are hesitant to take on larger positions. OxChain 
highlights a crucial trend: without leveraged conviction, market trends often 
struggle to gain momentum. On-chain data shows a more cautious sentiment among 
investors rather than outright fear. While the coin days destroyed (CDD) 
metric has risen due to older coins moving, much of the long-held Bitcoin 
remains with patient holders who are not in a rush to sell. Related Reading: 
Metaplanet In Jeopardy: Bitcoin Needs To Surpass $108,000 By December 18 To 
Prevent New Crisis Furthermore, the adjusted spent output profit ratio 
(aSOPR), hovering near 1, signals that there is neither extensive profit- 
taking nor widespread panic selling taking place. The analyst identified that 
the majority of selling activity has come from mid-term holders, contributing 
to a muted and indecisive market flow. Additionally, institutional investors 
remained relatively inactive throughout November. Significant outflows were 
reported in both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which further contributed to the 
current state of the market. OxChain concluded his analysis by saying: The 
broader bullish narrative isn’t gone, but the near-term setup is fragile. 
Until a strong catalyst appears, expect a wandering market that drifts, chops, 
and tests lower levels. When writing, the leading cryptocurrency was trading 
just above the $91,550 level, recording a 4% price recovery in the 24-hour 
time frame. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

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