Renowned macro analyst Alex Krüger is pushing back on a comparison that has 
taken hold across desks since strikes involving Iran began: that markets are 
replaying the 2022 Russia-Ukraine shock, with crypto and Bitcoin in particular 
tracing an uncomfortably familiar pattern. Yes, the setups rhyme, Krüger wrote 
in a March 4 Substack note. But he argues the analogy breaks where it matters 
for Bitcoin: monetary policy and the persistence of the energy shock. “Markets 
are panicking. Everyone sees 2022 again. The chart setups look almost 
identical and the energy shock is real,” he wrote. “But the comparison falls 
apart under scrutiny. The macro is different, and the oil disruption is 
transitory.” What Is Crucial For Bitcoin Now Krüger’s starting point is 
historical rather than crypto-specific: wars and kinetic conflicts have often 
created “buying opportunities,” even when the initial impulse is risk-off. The 
reason 2022 became so toxic for risk, he says, wasn’t the invasion itself, it 
was what came after. In 2022, Bitcoin and overall risk assets bottomed on the 
day Russia invaded Ukraine (Feb. 24), then bounced hard, then rolled over by 
late March as markets resumed sliding. The war was the catalyst, not the 
engine. The engine was a Federal Reserve forced into an aggressive hiking 
cycle with inflation already running hot, and an oil spike that worsened the 
inflation problem. Krüger’s core claim is that 2026 does not have the same 
policy backdrop. In 2022, the Fed was “behind the curve” with year-over-year 
inflation at 7.9% and the real Fed Funds rate around -7.5% when war broke out. 
Today, he says the Fed is in “wait-and-see mode,” with inflation trending 
lower and real rates around +1.2%. Related Reading: Manufacturing The Bitcoin 
Reserve: Inside The Trump Family’s 11,000-Miner Expansion At American Bitcoin 
He frames the policy asymmetry in blunt terms: “Even if the oil spike pushes 
headline inflation temporarily higher, the Fed has room to look through it. At 
+1.2% real rates, they don&#8217;t need to tighten into a supply shock. In 2022 they 
had no choice — at -7.5% they were catastrophically behind. That&#8217;s the 
difference that matters for risk assets.” Krüger points to recent Fed 
communication as consistent with that stance. John Williams said oil would 
affect the “near-term inflation outlook” but that persistence mattered: “code 
for: we’re not moving unless this lasts,” Krüger wrote, while noting the US is 
less oil-dependent than past decades. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also 
argued the US is “in a very different position than when Russia invaded 
Ukraine.” Since the strikes began, Krüger noted, four Fed officials have 
spoken publicly without changing their outlook; Williams described the market 
reaction as “muted,” Neel Kashkari said it’s “too soon to know” and still sees 
one to two cuts this year if inflation cools, and hawk Beth Hammack called 
policy “neutral” while urging an extended pause. The second pillar of Krüger’s 
argument is that the oil disruption in 2026 is more likely to be temporary 
than the structural break of 2022. Then, Europe lost access to roughly 4.5 
million barrels per day of Russian crude and refined products and sanctions 
made that disruption effectively permanent; Brent surged near $130 on March 8 
and didn’t sustainably break below $90 until late August. Related Reading: 
Bitcoin To $11 Million By 2036? This AI-Deflation Thesis Is Turning Heads This 
time, he argues, Iran’s own barrels are not the key variable. Iran produced 
roughly 3.3 million bpd and exported about 1.9 million bpd before the strikes, 
mostly to China through shadow channels at an $11–$12 discount to Brent, with 
most of its tanker fleet already sanctioned, meaning “additional sanctions on 
Iran post-war would change nothing.” The market’s focus, instead, is the 
Strait of Hormuz, where roughly 14 million bpd transits — about 20% of global 
petroleum liquids consumption and where traffic has “dropped almost to a 
standstill.” Krüger says the futures curve is doing the real talking. In 2022, 
the front month repriced about +50% and the tenth contract +29%, signaling a 
long repair job. In 2026, he estimates the front month is up +32% but the 
tenth contract only +12%, “despite a shock affecting 4.4x more barrels,” 
implying traders see an expiration date to the disruption rather than a 
rewiring of supply chains. Tail Risk Is The Curve’s “Tell” Krüger is explicit 
about what could turn a “transitory” shock into a 2022-style regime shift: 
direct, repeated hits that take refining capacity or LNG offline for months. 
Iran has already struck Ras Tanura, Fujairah, and Qatari LNG facilities, he 
wrote, mostly with debris from intercepted drones but he sees an escalation 
pattern toward energy infrastructure, with “tens of thousands of drones in 
reserve.” “If direct hits start landing on refining capacity — SAMREF, Jebel 
Ali, Jubail — that is lost production that does not come back with a 
ceasefire. Refineries take months to repair,” he wrote. “And the risk is no 
longer limited to oil. This is becoming a products and gas crisis, not just a 
crude problem.” Krüger added that QatarEnergy has shut down LNG output at Ras 
Laffan and Mesaieed, removing roughly a fifth of global LNG export capacity. 
For Bitcoin, the takeaway is less about pattern-matching the chart and more 
about watching whether the macro “off-switch” remains credible. Krüger’s rule 
of thumb is simple: if the back end of the curve starts repricing, for 
example, if that tenth contract moves from roughly +12% toward +25%, the 
market is signaling the shock is turning structural. “But as of today,” he 
wrote, “the curve hasn’t blinked. Don’t confuse a transitory geopolitical 
shock (2026) with a major liquidity crisis (2022).” At press time, Bitcoin 
traded at $ Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin Prints A 2022-Like Iran War Chart, But It’s Not

XRP investment demand is accelerating as institutional capital flows into 
regulated funds, with Bitwise’s XRP ETF emerging as the largest in the United 
States and signaling expanding Wall Street exposure to the digital asset. 
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PsiQuantum co-founder Terry Rudolph said in July it has no plans to attack 
Bitcoin, even if its upcoming facility becomes powerful enough to break the 
blockchain’s cryptography.

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XRP recorded a sharp rebound of roughly 5% as the broader crypto market 
experienced a brief wave of relief following weeks of persistent volatility. 
The move comes after a difficult February for digital assets, a period defined 
by escalating geopolitical tensions and a macroeconomic environment that has 
continued to deteriorate. Despite these pressures, several large-cap altcoins 
have demonstrated relative resilience, with XRP among the assets managing to 
stabilize near key technical levels. Related Reading: The Quiet Accumulation: 
13,500 Bitcoin Leaving Binance Signals A Strategic Whale Pivot at $66,000 
According to analysis shared by top analyst Darkfost, derivatives data reveal 
a particularly notable shift in market positioning. Funding rates for XRP on 
Binance have recently moved into deeply negative territory while the asset 
traded within a range between $1.35 and $1.50. Negative funding rates 
typically indicate that short positions dominate the derivatives market, 
meaning traders betting on further downside are paying a premium to maintain 
those positions. This dynamic highlights the extent of bearish sentiment 
currently surrounding the asset. Even after XRP has already undergone a 
significant correction of approximately 60% from previous highs, a large 
portion of derivatives traders continue to position on the short side. Extreme 
Negative Funding Rates Could Signal Short-Term Rebound Darkfost explains that 
this type of market configuration often functions as a contrarian signal 
within derivatives-driven environments. When market consensus becomes 
excessively aligned in a single direction, historical patterns show that price 
action frequently moves against the majority’s expectations. In the case of 
XRP, the deeply negative funding rates observed on Binance suggest that a 
large share of traders is currently positioned on the short side of the 
market. When this imbalance grows too pronounced, it can create the conditions 
for a short squeeze or a corrective rally, as traders betting on further 
downside are forced to close positions if the price begins to move upward. 
Historical data support this interpretation. Previous periods where XRP 
funding rates reached similarly extreme negative levels have often been 
followed by short-term rebounds. These moves tend to occur when the market 
becomes overcrowded with bearish positioning, leaving the price vulnerable to 
sharp upward adjustments once selling pressure begins to fade. While extreme 
funding conditions can indicate a temporary imbalance in positioning, they do 
not necessarily guarantee the beginning of a sustained bullish trend. Instead, 
this setup may represent a constructive signal for investors seeking potential 
entry zones or opportunities to gradually build exposure as market conditions 
stabilize. Related Reading: The $11,000 Deficit: Why the Record $8.9B Bitcoin 
ETF Drawdown Is Paralyzing Wall Street’s BTC Appetite XRP Trades Near Key 
Support After Prolonged Downtrend The chart shows XRP trading near $1.43 after 
an extended correction that has significantly altered its broader market 
structure. Since peaking above the $3.50 region in mid-2025, the asset has 
entered a clear downtrend characterized by lower highs and persistent selling 
pressure. This structural shift became more evident as XRP lost the support of 
its key moving averages, which now act as overhead resistance. Price is 
currently trading well below the 50-period and 100-period moving averages, 
while the 200-period average sits even higher near the $2 zone. This 
configuration reflects a market where bullish momentum has largely faded, with 
buyers struggling to reclaim higher levels. Each rebound attempt over recent 
months has failed to break through resistance, reinforcing the prevailing 
bearish structure. Related Reading: The Quiet Accumulation: 13,500 Bitcoin 
Leaving Binance Signals A Strategic Whale Pivot at $66,000 However, the chart 
also highlights the emergence of a consolidation phase between approximately 
$1.30 and $1.50. This range developed after a sharp capitulation move in early 
2026, when XRP briefly dipped close to the $1.20 area before stabilizing. For 
XRP to shift toward a more constructive structure, the price would likely need 
to reclaim the $1.60–$1.80 region and break above its short-term moving 
averages. Otherwise, the current range could continue acting as a base while 
the market searches for direction. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from 
TradingView.com

The $1.35 Floor: How Extreme Negative Funding Is Priming XRP For A High-Velocity Trend Reversal

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returns. Eric Trump Criticizes JPMorgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo Over 
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Cryptocurrency price in MYR