Bitcoin is hovering around the $65,000 level as persistent selling pressure 
continues to weigh on market sentiment. The recent decline has intensified 
uncertainty among investors, with volatility rising while liquidity conditions 
remain fragile. After a strong rally earlier in the cycle, price action now 
reflects a more defensive phase, with traders increasingly focused on downside 
risk rather than upside momentum. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders 
Deep In Loss: MVRV Signals Capitulation Phase A recent CryptoQuant report 
frames the central question facing the crypto market: how far this bear phase 
could extend before a durable bottom forms. Bitcoin has declined roughly 17% 
this year, a move attributed to several converging factors. These include 
approximately $12 billion in institutional ETF outflows over the past three 
months, broader global risk aversion tied to macroeconomic conditions, and 
ongoing regulatory ambiguity that continues to limit large-scale capital 
commitment. Despite the negative backdrop, analysts note that intense 
institutional selling does not necessarily preclude a reversal. Historically, 
periods of heavy distribution often precede accumulation phases. The 
analytical focus is therefore shifting toward identifying a potential 
accumulation zone — a price range where selling pressure becomes exhausted, 
and larger market participants begin rebuilding exposure. That transition, if 
confirmed, would likely mark the early stages of trend stabilization rather 
than an immediate recovery. Market Cycle Signals: Capitulation Phase Or Early 
Accumulation? According to the report, understanding the current Bitcoin 
environment requires focusing on market structure rather than short-term price 
forecasts. One framework gaining attention is the BTC Market Cycle Signals 
indicator, an on-chain analytical tool that interprets Bitcoin’s cycle through 
three distinct phases using monthly Bollinger Band positioning. This approach 
aims to contextualize volatility rather than simply react to it. The first 
phase, Distribution, typically occurs when the price reaches or exceeds the 
upper Bollinger Band, often reflecting euphoric sentiment and profit-taking 
behavior. This stage historically aligns with cycle tops. The second phase, 
Capitulation, emerges when price declines below the 20-month moving average 
and gravitates toward the lower band, signaling panic, forced selling, and 
deteriorating sentiment. Finally, the Accumulation phase represents conditions 
where long-term positioning becomes favorable, although this zone does not 
always coincide with the exact market bottom. Current price action appears to 
be converging toward the level associated with early accumulation, estimated 
around $54,600. Historically, this range has acted as a transitional zone 
between capitulation and renewed accumulation activity. However, this should 
be interpreted cautiously. While such indicators help clarify cycle 
positioning, they do not eliminate uncertainty. Market reversals typically 
require confirmation through liquidity inflows, improving sentiment, and 
sustained structural demand rather than technical positioning alone. Related 
Reading: Ethereum Coinbase Premium Drops To 2022 Bear-Market Levels: 
Capitulation Or Further Downside? Bitcoin Breaks Key Support As Bearish 
Momentum Intensifies Bitcoin continues to trade under heavy pressure, with the 
weekly chart showing a decisive breakdown below the $70,000 level after 
several weeks of weakening structure. Price recently closed near $67,200 
following a sharp rejection from the mid-$90K region, confirming a clear 
lower-high formation and reinforcing a bearish trend continuation. The move 
also represents a loss of momentum after the failed recovery attempt above the 
50-week moving average, which had previously acted as dynamic support during 
the uptrend. Technically, Bitcoin is now trading below the 50-week and 
100-week moving averages. While the 200-week average remains significantly 
lower near the mid-$50K area. Historically, this zone has acted as a major 
long-term support. Suggesting that further downside in that region cannot be 
ruled out if selling pressure persists. Volume expansion during the recent 
drop indicates distribution rather than simple low-liquidity volatility. 
Related Reading: Are We Near A Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom? History Offers A 
Framework The market appears to be transitioning from a late bull-cycle 
correction into a potential bear-market consolidation phase. Unless Bitcoin 
quickly reclaims the $70K–$75K range and stabilizes above it, the probability 
of continued downside or prolonged sideways accumulation remains elevated in 
the near term. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin At $65K: Market Cycle Indicator Points To Possible Bottom Zone

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A new theory circulating in the crypto market is challenging how investors 
interpret Bitcoin’s recent price decline. In a post shared on X (formerly 
Twitter), market analyst Crypto Rover argued that Bitcoin is no longer trading 
as a simple supply-and-demand asset, and that this structural shift is a major 
reason behind the current sell-off. A ‘Parallel Financial Layer’ Rover&#8217;s 
central claim is that although Bitcoin&#8217;s on-chain supply cap of 21 million 
coins has not changed, the way Bitcoin is traded in modern financial markets 
has effectively diluted its scarcity. According to him, focusing only on spot 
buying and selling misses what is really driving price action today. BTC, he 
says, no longer moves primarily based on physical ownership of coins, but on 
activity in massive derivatives markets that now dominate price discovery. 
Related Reading: What Went Wrong With Crypto? A Postmortem As the analyst 
highlighted, in Bitcoin’s early years, its valuation rested on two fundamental 
principles: a strictly fixed supply of 21 million coins and the impossibility 
of duplicating that supply. These features made Bitcoin uniquely scarce, with 
prices largely determined by real buyers and sellers exchanging coins in the 
spot market. However, over time, Rover asserts that a &#8220;parallel financial 
layer&#8221; developed on top of the blockchain itself. This financial layer 
includes cash‑settled futures, perpetual swaps, options contracts, prime 
brokerage lending, wrapped Bitcoin products such as WBTC, and total return 
swaps. None of these instruments create new Bitcoin on the blockchain, but 
they do create synthetic exposure to Bitcoin’s price. According to Rover, this 
synthetic exposure now plays a central role in determining how Bitcoin trades. 
As derivatives trading volumes grew and eventually surpassed spot market 
activity, Rover argues that Bitcoin’s price stopped responding mainly to 
on‑chain coin movement. Instead, prices increasingly reflect leverage, trader 
positioning, margin stress, and liquidation dynamics. In practical terms, this 
means Bitcoin can move sharply even when there is little actual buying or 
selling of real coins. Why Bitcoin Moves Without Spot Selling Rover also 
highlights the concept of synthetic supply, explaining that a single Bitcoin 
can now be used simultaneously across multiple financial products. One coin 
may back an exchange-traded fund (ETF) share while also supporting a futures 
contract, a perpetual swap hedge, options exposure, a broker loan, or a 
structured investment product. While this does not increase Bitcoin’s actual 
supply, it dramatically increases the amount of tradable exposure linked to 
that same coin. When this synthetic exposure grows large compared with the 
real supply of Bitcoin, the market’s perception of scarcity weakens. This 
phenomenon, often described as synthetic float expansion, changes how prices 
behave. Rallies are more easily shorted using derivatives, leverage builds 
rapidly, liquidations become more frequent, and volatility increases. 
According to Rover, this structural shift makes price movements feel 
disconnected from on‑chain fundamentals. Yet, the analyst notes that the 
leading cryptocurrency is not unique in this regard. Related Reading: Why The 
Market Cap Argument For XRP Price Not Reaching $10,000 Is ‘Flawed’ Similar 
transitions occurred in markets such as gold, silver, oil, and major equity 
indices. In each case, once derivatives markets overtook physical trading, 
price discovery moved away from supply alone and became increasingly 
influenced by financial positioning. This framework also helps explain why 
Bitcoin sometimes declines even in the absence of heavy spot selling. Price 
pressure can come from forced liquidations of leveraged long positions, 
aggressive futures shorting, options hedging activity, or ETF arbitrage 
trades. Importantly, Rover emphasizes that Bitcoin’s hard cap has not changed 
at the protocol level. The 21 million limit remains intact on the blockchain. 
What has changed, he argues, is the financial structure surrounding Bitcoin. 
He concluded his analysis by asserting that in today’s markets, “paper 
Bitcoin” has become more influential than physical ownership, and that 
dominance is playing a key role in the market’s recent instability. Featured 
image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Top Analyst Says ‘Paper Bitcoin’ Is Driving The Market, Not The 21 Million Supply Cap

BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF posted inflows on Friday following a turbulent week 
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Sberbank, Russia’s largest bank, stated that it was preparing to roll out a 
program of crypto-backed loans for corporate customers. The institution 
stressed that it was currently finalizing the infrastructure needed to scale 
up the rollout of these financial products. Sberbank Prepares To Scale 
Issuance Of Crypto-backed Loans Russian banks are prepared to take a […]

Cryptocurrency price in MYR