On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Supply in Loss indicator has witnessed a shift 
in direction that has often led into bearish phases in past cycles. 365-Day 
SMA Of The Bitcoin Supply In Loss Has Been Rising Recently As pointed out by 
an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the Bitcoin Supply in Loss has 
started to trend up again. This metric measures, as its name suggests, the 
percentage of the total BTC circulating supply that&#8217;s currently being held at 
some net unrealized loss. Related Reading: Next Ethereum Move Hinges On This 
Level, Says Glassnode Analyst The indicator works by scanning through the 
transaction history of each token in circulation to determine the price at 
which it was last transacted on the network. If this previous transaction 
value for any coin was greater than the latest spot price, then the metric 
assumes that particular token to be underwater. The Supply in Loss adds up all 
coins falling in this category and finds what part of the supply they make up 
for. A counterpart metric known as the Supply in Profit tracks the supply of 
the opposite type. Since the total supply must add up to a 100%, however, the 
Supply in Profit is simply equal to the Supply in Loss subtracted from 100. 
Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 365-day simple moving average 
(SMA) of the Bitcoin Supply in Loss over the cryptocurrency&#8217;s history: As 
displayed in the above graph, the 365-day SMA Bitcoin Supply in Loss plummeted 
to the lowest point for the cycle back in October. This plunge came as the 
asset rallied to a new all-time high (ATH) beyond the $126,000 level. Since 
the low, however, the indictor has witnessed a rapid climb, a consequence of 
the bearish momentum that BTC has faced following its ATH. So far, the 
indicator hasn&#8217;t risen to a significant level compared to past capitulation 
levels, but the change in direction has been solidifying itself. 
&#8220;Historically, this shift has marked the early phase of bear markets, when 
losses begin to spread beyond short-term holders and gradually reach longer- 
term participants,&#8221; explained the quant. From the chart, it&#8217;s visible that 
bearish transitions in past cycles occurred as the indicator shot up, with a 
high value in it coinciding with the cycle bottom. Related Reading: Bitcoin 
Social Interest Fades As Retail Chases Gold, Silver Hype Whether the recent 
reversal in the Supply in Loss is the beginning of something similar only 
remains to be seen. Earlier in this cycle, an upward turn in the indicator 
ended up only being temporary, as the H1-2025 drawdown gave way to renewed 
bullish momentum rather than a prolonged bear phase. BTC Price At the time of 
writing, Bitcoin is trading around $89,000, up over 1% in the last 24 hours. 
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin Supply In Loss Turns Upward—Early Bear Market Signal?

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