Bitcoin is still far from triggering the three signals that have historically 
appeared at the end of bear markets, according to analyst Willy Woo. Bitcoin 
Is Still Trading Far Below The Cost Basis Of Recent Investors In a new post on 
X, analyst Willy Woo has listed the three things that tend to happen at the 
end of bear markets. The first signal is the price breaking the cost basis of 
the short-term holders (STHs). The STHs refer to the investors who purchased 
their coins within the past 155 days. As such, the cost basis of this group 
represents the break-even level of the recent buyers of the cryptocurrency. 
Related Reading: Bitcoin Sharks &amp; Whales Capitulate: Realized Loss Exceeds 
$200M As the below chart shared by Woo shows, Bitcoin fell under the STH cost 
basis during past bear markets and maintained there, suggesting that the new 
entrants remained underwater. As is visible in the graph, Bitcoin also slipped 
under the STH cost basis alongside the bearish shift in Q4 2025 and since 
then, it has stayed below this level, with the gap widening over time. 
Historically, the cryptocurrency&#8217;s price has broken back above the STH cost 
basis at the end of bear markets (as highlighted with circles in the chart). 
Another thing that has tended to follow this phase shift is fresh buying from 
investors. This second signal gives rise to the third one: a reversal of trend 
in the average acquisition level of the STHs. From the chart, it&#8217;s apparent 
that the STH cost basis shows a downtrend during bear markets. This is a 
natural result of coins changing hands at the lower bear market levels, 
pushing the average break-even level lower. As a transition away from a major 
bearish phase occurs, investors start buying at higher prices, causing the STH 
cost basis to see an upward reversal. Related Reading: Ethereum Drops Nearly 
5% As Familiar Leverage Setup Plays Out Under the post, a user asked asked Woo 
to elaborate. To which, the analyst responded with: Given price is not even 
close to the cost basis of recent investors, and that cost basis is dropping 
each day… there&#8217;s no point in buying until a cross becomes imminent. Bear 
markets are about patience. At the moment, the Bitcoin STH cost basis is 
floating around $81,000, implying that the recent buyers are holding a net 
unrealized loss of more than 14%. It now remains to be seen how long it will 
be before the cryptocurrency will be able to find a break back above the 
level. BTC Price Bitcoin ended last week under the $67,000 level, but the 
digital asset has kicked back up to start Monday, with its price recovering to 
$69,500. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

These 3 Signals Mark Bear Market Exits—Bitcoin Has Yet To Trigger Them

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Cryptocurrency price in MMK