According to crypto analyst Tony Severino, the Bitcoin price has broken below 
the 50-week Moving Average (MA) for the first time in the current cycle, 
triggering renewed fears of a deeper decline. With price momentum weakening 
and long-term trend indicators flashing bearish warning signals, the 
possibility of a price crash to $38,000 is becoming hard to ignore. 50-MA 
Breakdown To Trigger $38,000 Bitcoin Price Crash The Bitcoin price action took 
a decisive turn this week as the market slipped below the 50 MA for the first 
time in this four-year cycle. Severino noted in his technical analysis shared 
on X this Monday that the 50 MA has historically marked the beginning of 
extended downturns. He stated that following Bitcoin’s launch over 14 years 
ago, every time it has closed below the 50 MA, a prolonged bear market has 
followed. Related Reading: Financial Strategist Debunks Prediction That 
Bitcoin Price Will Reach $220,000 In 45 Days Severino’s price chart highlights 
BTC’s price performance from 2017 to date. In the past three Bitcoin bear 
markets, after the price fell below the 50-week MA, BTC continued to drop an 
additional 61%, 59%, and 67%. On average, the cryptocurrency has lost 62% from 
the break point. Applying the 62% drawdown to this cycle’s 50 MA level, the 
analyst predicts Bitcoin could soon experience a price crash to $38,000. From 
the cryptocurrency’s current price of above $87,000, this represents a 
staggering 60% decline. Additionally, it would imply a roughly 70% decline 
from its all-time high of more than $126,000. Severino warns that traders 
calling for a price bottom may be ignoring how far Bitcoin has historically 
fallen once this long-term trend fails. He indicated that the 50-week MA has 
repeatedly served as a dividing line between bullish and bearish phases, and 
that price slipping below it has more often led to extended periods of 
weakness and capitulation. Bitcoin Momentum Indicator Falls To Historic Lows A 
second analysis presented by Severino focuses on Bitcoin’s daily LMACD, which 
is now near levels not seen in more than 1,250 days. The oscillator has only 
pushed below this level six times since BTC’s 2017 macro peak. These past 
instances correspond to periods of heavy downside momentum where the 
cryptocurrency had yet to complete its bottoming process. Related Reading: One 
Of The Most Popular Bitcoin Advocates Dumps Millions In BTC, Here’s Why 
Looking at Severino’s price chart, the extended period without revisiting this 
lower bound suggests Bitcoin may be overdue for a momentum reset. The LMACD 
indicator’s current reading is also unusually weak historically, signaling 
that market momentum has not yet reached extreme pessimism. The readings 
further indicate that, although BTC remains in a downtrend, price corrections 
remain possible before a true bottom is established. According to 
CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin is trading below $87,000 amid volatile, choppy 
conditions that have contributed to its 24% decline over the past month. 
Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin Price Breaks Below 50-MA For The First Time This Cycle, Why A Crash To $38,000 Could Be Coming

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setting the stage for a new onchain market infrastructure built atop 
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Avalanche Securitize, which describes itself as the leading platform […]

Dual Markets: Securitize Earns EU Approval for Digitized Market Infrastructure on Avalanche

Ethereum tried to break through a key resistance level this week, only to be 
politely shown the door once more. At last check, the asset is down over 26% 
for the month. See below. The cryptocurrency flirted with its upper…

Ethereum hits resistance, whales hold strong as price sinks 26% in November

Ethereum continues to trade below the critical $3,000 level as selling 
pressure intensifies and fear dominates sentiment across the crypto market. 
The broader downturn has pushed ETH nearly 40% below its August all-time high, 
raising concerns that the asset may be entering a prolonged bearish phase. 
Analysts who were once confident in a continued rally are now shifting their 
tone, warning that market structure, volatility, and liquidity conditions are 
beginning to resemble early-stage bear market behavior. Related Reading: 
Bitcoin Short Squeeze Flushes Out Late Longers as Funding Turns Negative: 
Classic Capitulation Signal At the same time, investor confidence is being 
further tested by fresh on-chain activity showing large holders reducing 
exposure. According to data from Lookonchain, an Ethereum ICO participant has 
sold another 20,000 ETH, valued at approximately $58.14 million, through 
FalconX just a few hours ago. With selling pressure accelerating, derivatives 
sentiment weakening, and long-term holders beginning to reduce positions, 
Ethereum now sits at a pivotal moment. Bulls must reclaim the $3,000 region to 
stabilize momentum, while bears argue that a deeper correction could unfold if 
support continues to erode. ICO Whale Selling Raises Pressure as Ethereum 
Awaits Direction According to Lookonchain, the wallet behind the latest sale — 
identified as address 0x2eb0 — is no ordinary holder. This Ethereum OG 
received 254,908 ETH during the ICO, paying just $79,000 at the time. At 
today’s prices, that allocation is worth roughly $757 million, highlighting 
the scale of unrealized gains still held by early participants. The recent 
sale of 20,000 ETH suggests that even long-standing holders with substantial 
profit cushions are beginning to offload coins, adding to the already fragile 
market environment. This selling activity is particularly impactful given the 
current sentiment. Ethereum has already fallen sharply from its highs, 
leverage has unwound across derivatives markets, and retail confidence has 
thinned. When an early participant with a cost basis near zero begins 
distributing, it sends a psychological signal that further downside is 
possible. Yet, some analysts argue that these sales may simply represent 
portfolio rotation rather than a long-term bearish stance. The coming days 
will be decisive, as investors watch whether Ethereum can stabilize and 
rebound or if selling pressure accelerates. A recovery above $3,000 could 
revive optimism and reset momentum, while continued weakness risks confirming 
a deeper downtrend for both ETH and the broader market. Related Reading: XRP 
OI Collapses to Lowest Level Since Nov 2024: Binance Data Shows Liquidity Is 
Fading Breakdown, Weak Structure, and Fragile Bounce Attempt Ethereum’s weekly 
chart reveals a clear deterioration in trend structure following the sharp 
rejection from the $4,400 region and the subsequent breakdown below the $3,200 
support zone. The selloff pushed ETH toward the mid-$2,700s before a modest 
rebound, but the price remains below key moving averages, signaling that 
momentum continues to favor sellers. The 50-week moving average has rolled 
over, while the 100-week and 200-week moving averages now sit overhead, 
forming layered resistance that could cap any recovery attempts in the short 
term. Related Reading: Bitmine Scoops Up Another 28,625 Ethereum ($82.1M) as 
Market Bleeds – Details Volume during the decline expanded noticeably, 
indicating active distribution rather than passive drifting. The most recent 
candle shows a small bounce, but with no strong volume follow-through, 
suggesting hesitation and lack of conviction among buyers. For Ethereum to 
regain bullish structure, reclaiming the $3,000–$3,200 area is essential, as 
this zone acted as a pivotal support throughout earlier phases of the cycle 
and now threatens to flip into resistance. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart 
from TradingView.com

Ethereum ICO Whale Sells 20,000 ETH ($58M), Raising Questions Over Market Timing

Bitcoin briefly surpassed $90,000 on Wednesday and held the breakout, despite 
volatility across the broader crypto market.

Cryptocurrency price in MMK