Arthur Hayes signals a strategic window for bitcoin investors as potential 
U.S. conflict spending could push the Federal Reserve toward policies that 
historically ignite major crypto rallies, revealing when he believes the 
smartest buying opportunity may emerge. Arthur Hayes Advises Buying Bitcoin 
After Fed Prints Money to Support US Conflict Spending Geopolitical conflict 
and monetary […]

When Is a Good Time to Buy Bitcoin? Arthur Hayes Points to Fed Cuts Amid Iran Conflict

Bitcoin climbed back above $71,000 on Wednesday, reaching its highest level 
since February 8, even as broader geopolitical risk remained elevated. The 
move appears to have been triggered by a sudden shift in macro sentiment 
around Iran, but market structure inside crypto had already left BTC primed 
for a sharp reversal. Why Is The Bitcoin Price Up Today? The immediate 
catalyst came from a report cited by The Kobeissi Letter, which said the New 
York Times had reported that Iran made a “secret” offer to the US to negotiate 
an end to the war. According to Kobeissi, the proposed framework included Iran 
abandoning or sharply curtailing its ballistic missile and nuclear programs, 
as well as reducing support for proxy groups, while President Donald Trump had 
“suggested” Iran’s surviving leaders could remain in power under a so-called 
“Venezuela model.” Related Reading: Bitcoin To $11 Million By 2036? This AI- 
Deflation Thesis Is Turning Heads Kobeissi added that “it remains unclear if a 
deal is feasible at this point in time,” but the timing matched a rapid risk- 
on reaction across US stock futures markets as well as Bitcoin. That macro 
headline helps explain the spark. It does not fully explain why Bitcoin 
reacted more forcefully than stocks and gold. For that, the positioning 
backdrop matters. BREAKING: US stock market futures surge as the New York 
Times reports that Iran made a &#8220;secret&#8221; offer to the US to negotiate a deal to 
end the war. Potential terms include: 1. Iran to abandon or drastically 
curtail its ballistic missile and nuclear programs 2. Iran to abandon… 
https://t.co/IsF3saWl1A — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 4, 2026 
Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33 Research, argued that Bitcoin entered the 
latest week in an unusually compressed state after months of persistent 
weakness. “Bitcoin entered the weekend heavily oversold, heavily shorted, and 
significantly underowned,” Lunde wrote. “First and foremost, the context for 
BTC ahead of the war in Iran is wildly different from other asset classes. 
Bitcoin had fallen 50% after five continuous months of downside. The weekly 
RSI fell to its third lowest reading ever, meaning BTC entered the week 
uniquely oversold.” In other words, Bitcoin was not coming into the 
geopolitical shock from a position of strength. It was coming in after a deep 
washout. Lunde also noted that institutional exposure had already been cut 
back materially, with spot ETFs seeing outflows of nearly 100,000 BTC and 
notional CME open interest falling 30% from October levels. That matters 
because investors most likely to use BTC as a hedge against uncertainty had, 
in his view, already reduced exposure, loosening the asset’s correlation to 
traditional macro trades. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment On Wall Street 
Has Turned Negative, Galaxy’s Thorn Says Inside derivatives, the setup looked 
even more asymmetric. Lunde said perpetual funding rates had been unusually 
low and that traders had spent much of February paying a premium to stay 
short. “This is atypical market behavior for BTC, an asset with a distinct 
long bias,” he wrote. “Similar funding rate regimes have often appeared during 
bottoming phases and have historically reflected imbalances, overcrowding, and 
sell-side exhaustion.” That imbalance began to unwind quickly as price turned. 
In a follow-up post, Lunde said Binance BTCUSDT perpetual open interest had 
risen by 7,547 BTC in just four hours, a jump he said had not been seen on a 
comparable 4-hour basis since 2023. That suggests the rally was not just a 
spot reaction to headlines, but also a derivatives-led repositioning event. 
Crypto contributor Darkfost pointed to similar evidence. He noted that 
Bitcoin’s rebound above $70,000 came alongside five consecutive days of spot 
ETF inflows and a decisive turn in aggressive derivatives buying. On Binance, 
the BTC Taker Buy Sell Ratio reached 1.18, its highest reading of the year, 
while taker buy volume exceeded $1 billion per hour multiple times during the 
session. Taken together, those signals suggest buyers are no longer simply 
absorbing selling pressure; they are beginning to dictate short-term price 
action. At press time, BTC traded at $70,851. Featured image created with 
DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin Price Surges Back Above $71,000: Key Reasons Explained

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Digital asset infrastructure firm Zerohash has formally applied for a U.S. 
national trust bank charter, a move that could place the Chicago-based company 
under federal banking oversight while expanding its reach across the crypto 
and stablecoin economy. Zerohash Joins Wave of Crypto Firms Seeking Federal 
Banking Charters The application, submitted March 4 to the U.S. […]

Zerohash Files OCC Application to Operate Federally Regulated Crypto Trust Bank

XRP is approaching a pivotal technical moment as it pushes against the 200 EMA 
while holding firm at the base of a descending channel. With support still 
intact and momentum building near resistance, the chart is compressing into a 
potential breakout setup. A confirmed move above the EMA could shift short- 
term sentiment, while failure would keep the broader corrective structure in 
play. XRP Tests The 200 EMA Barrier According to technical analyst Egrag 
Crypto, XRP is currently attempting a significant breakthrough as it pushes 
against the 200 EMA. This move has the community questioning if the bulls 
finally have enough momentum to sustain the climb. While the immediate price 
action is encouraging, the next few days are critical for determining whether 
this is a genuine trend shift or merely a temporary spike. Related Reading: 
XRP Price Begins Consolidation, Breakout Pressure Gradually Builds The primary 
condition for a bullish transition is a weekly candle close above the 200 EMA 
and the $1.55 horizontal resistance. Achieving this would signal a surge in 
short-term strength and a meaningful shift in market momentum. Despite this 
push, XRP remains confined within a long-term descending channel, suggesting 
the broader macro structure is still technically corrective. Egrag highlights 
two major upside targets for those looking for a &#8220;bullish expansion.&#8221; First, 
the $1.55 level must be reclaimed and held to solidify current strength. If 
successful, the next major milestone is a weekly close above $2.20, which 
would likely trigger a more aggressive upward move. A rejection at or below 
the $1.55 mark would likely result in a liquidity sweep toward the $1.26 
level. If the selling pressure intensifies from there, the downside risk 
extends much further, with potential targets sitting in the $0.95–$0.85 range. 
Channel Floor Holding — Buyers Step In In a recent market update, analyst 
Jonathan Carter revealed that XRP&#8217;s descending channel support is holding 
remarkably strong. The altcoin is currently trading near the lower boundary of 
this multi-month descending channel on the daily chart, a zone that has 
historically acted as a springboard for price recoveries. Related Reading: XRP 
Triangle Could Point To Support Between $0.60 And $0.90 The focus for traders 
now shifts to a confirmed bounce from this support level. If the daily chart 
can print a strong reversal candle, it would validate the channel&#8217;s integrity 
and signal the start of a new upward leg. Should the bulls successfully ignite 
this bounce, Carter has outlined a series of ambitious price targets. The 
initial recovery would likely target $1.50 and $1.80, with a successful breach 
of those levels opening the door for a climb toward $2.35 and $2.70. In a full 
bullish extension, the analysis points to macro targets at $3.10 and $3.55. 
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Cryptocurrency price in MMK