Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent pullback may be less about crypto‑specific weakness and 
more about macroeconomic fears, according to André Dragosch, Bitwise’s Head of 
Research for Europe. In a social media post published Wednesday, Dragosch 
argued that the world’s largest cryptocurrency appears to be pricing in a 
potential deep US recession. If that downturn ultimately fails to materialize, 
he suggested, Bitcoin could be positioned for a significant rebound. Is 
Bitcoin Facing A Quantum Risk Premium? Dragosch described Bitcoin as 
fundamentally a macro‑driven asset. Historically, he estimates that roughly 
90% of its performance can be explained by broad economic forces such as 
growth expectations, global liquidity conditions and monetary policy trends. 
However, he acknowledged that there are periods when Bitcoin temporarily 
decouples from these drivers. In his view, the market may currently be in one 
of those transitional phases. Related Reading: UNI Rallies 10% As BlackRock 
Brings Treasury‑Backed BUIDL Token To Uniswap Part of the recent divergence, 
he noted, may stem from concerns unrelated to traditional macro factors. Some 
market participants have pointed to what Dragosch referred to as a “quantum 
discount.” This narrative suggests that long‑term holder selling and 
speculation about the eventual emergence of quantum‑resistant cryptography 
could be weighing on Bitcoin’s valuation. He observed that Bitcoin’s relative 
underperformance compared with Bitcoin Cash (BCH), which is perceived to have 
a clearer near‑term roadmap for quantum resilience, may reflect that line of 
thinking. By his rough estimate, markets could be assigning as much as a 25% 
probability to quantum‑related risk, whereas he believes a more realistic 
discount would be closer to 5%, given that any meaningful “Q‑Day” threat 
likely remains far in the future. Rare Macro Mispricing Opportunity More 
recently, Dragosch said Bitcoin’s sensitivity to macroeconomic developments 
has begun to increase again. That shift has coincided with weakness in 
software equities, adding further downward pressure to the cryptocurrency. In 
his assessment, the latest correction has produced one of the largest macro 
mispricings in Bitcoin’s history. He pointed to residuals between 
forward‑looking economic indicators and Bitcoin’s implied growth pricing, 
noting that the current gap is even more pronounced than during the COVID‑19 
recession in 2020. In practical terms, Dragosch believes Bitcoin’s current 
valuation reflects expectations of a deep US recession. Should such a downturn 
fail to occur, he argues that the resulting setup could represent one of the 
more asymmetric risk‑reward opportunities seen in Bitcoin to date. Related 
Reading: Strategy Unfazed By Bitcoin Crash, Michael Saylor Vows Quarterly 
Purchases He also emphasized that macroeconomic signals are not uniformly 
negative. Industrial commodity markets are showing early signs of renewed 
momentum, while US ISM data has returned to expansion territory. Leading 
indicators such as Germany’s Ifo survey and Taiwanese semiconductor export 
data are trending upward. Additionally, global rate‑cutting cycles have 
historically preceded stabilization in forward growth expectations. Taken 
together, these factors suggest that global growth prospects may not be 
deteriorating as sharply as some fear. Such an environment, Dragosch noted, 
typically supports risk assets like Bitcoin while diminishing relative demand 
for gold. He highlighted that the BTC-to-gold ratio currently sits near levels 
that historically signal dislocation, which he views as another potential sign 
of undervaluation. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $67,591, 
which is about 46% below the all-time high of $126,000 reached during last 
year&#8217;s rally in October. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from 
TradingView.com

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