Bitcoin could fall to around $30,000 before the year is out — at least 
according to one widely followed chart analyst. That bleak projection, drawn 
from a pattern tied to US midterm election years, is adding fresh weight to a 
growing skepticism about whether Bitcoin can reach $250,000 in 2026. Related 
Reading: Bitcoin Bull Run Brewing: ATH In Sight By Late 2026: Analyst Pattern 
Tied To Election Years Raises Red Flags Analyst Merlijn The Trader pointed to 
a recurring tendency for Bitcoin to sell off sharply in May of midterm 
election years. In 2014, Bitcoin dropped 60%. In 2018, it fell 65%. In 2022, 
the decline hit 66%. Each of those drops started around May. If 2026 follows 
the same script, Bitcoin — currently trading near $77,000 — could lose more 
than 60% of its value, landing somewhere close to $30,000. THREE WORDS. THREE 
CYCLES. ZERO EXCEPTIONS. Sell. In. May. But only in mid-term election years. 
2014: -61%. 2018: -65%. 2022: -66%. 2026: mid-term year. -60.73% is pointing 
to $30K. May is approaching. The chart doesn&#8217;t lie. The calendar doesn&#8217;t 
either. pic.twitter.com/qUshNbIHPN — Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) April 
27, 2026 Capital Group analysts have noted that midterm elections tend to 
increase market uncertainty, as campaign activity picks up in the spring and 
investors pull back from riskier assets. That environment, they say, 
historically pushes people toward caution. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is already 
trading roughly 40% below its October 2025 record high of approximately 
$126,000. Despite that slide, high-profile bulls like billionaire Tim Draper 
and Fundstrat&#8217;s Tom Lee have not walked back their $250,000 year-end target — 
a price that would require the cryptocurrency to more than triple from where 
it sits today. Bitcoiners Those of you predicting $250,000 in 2026 need to 
stop with the mushrooms This is called a channel $BTC While it does not 
preclude further price gains, it is NOT a bullish bottoming pattern The Factor 
Report reports on classical chart analysis https://t.co/6nRit1xsVp 
pic.twitter.com/ApMM46KFla — The Factor Report (@PeterLBrandt) April 27, 2026 
Peter Brandt Tells Bulls To Put Down The Mushrooms Veteran futures trader 
Peter Brandt has been blunter than most. Reacting to the $250,000 predictions, 
Brandt posted on social media: &#8220;Those of you predicting $250,000 in 2026 need 
to stop with the mushrooms.&#8221; He pointed to what he described as a bear flag 
channel forming on Bitcoin&#8217;s daily chart — not a bottoming pattern, he 
stressed, but a continuation of the existing downtrend. Based on the setup, 
BTC tested resistance near $79,500 before showing signs of pulling back. A 
move down to the flag&#8217;s lower boundary, around $69,000, is possible in May if 
selling pressure returns. A more severe breakdown below that line, Brandt 
warned, could push Bitcoin under $50,000. Halving Cycle Data Suggests The Peak 
May Already Be In The halving cycle history makes the bear case harder to 
dismiss. Bitcoin&#8217;s price peaks have historically arrived 12 to 18 months after 
each halving event. After the 2012 halving, the peak came in 12 months. After 
2016, it arrived in 17. After 2020, it took 18 months. Related Reading: 
Trump’s Bitcoin Reserve Could Be Near As White House Signals Major Update The 
most recent halving happened in April 2024. Bitcoin hit its all-time high of 
$126,000 in October 2025 — right at the 17 to 18-month mark. Now, more than 24 
months past that halving, the price sits around $77,000 and is still 
declining. That timeline, analysts say, lines up closely with prior cycle 
peaks, suggesting the top for this cycle may already be behind us. Not 
everyone is ready to call it a bear market, though. Analysts at Bernstein have 
pointed to a potential recovery toward the $100,000 to $150,000 range, a more 
measured view that neither chases the $250,000 target nor surrenders to the 
most bearish projections. Featured image from MetaAI, chart from TradingView

$250K Bitcoin In 2026? Analyst Warns Bulls To ‘Stop With The Mushrooms’

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