Arthur Hayes has issued a stark market warning: he sees a growing split 
between his preferred risk gauge, Bitcoin, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 as a 
signal that credit stress may be building under the surface. Related Reading: 
What Bitcoin Rout? Michael Saylor Unfazed, Teases New Accumulation Hayes, a 
co-founder and former CEO of cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, calls Bitcoin a 
“fiat liquidity fire alarm” — an asset that reacts quickly when credit 
conditions change. A Warning From Market Signals When two assets that often 
moved together start to pull apart, traders take notice. Hayes believes that a 
gap like this deserves investigation because it could point to trouble in bank 
balance sheets or in the flow of lending. He argues the move is not about one 
stock or one trade; it is about the plumbing of credit and how fast liquidity 
can dry up when things turn. How AI Job Cuts Could Ripple Through Credit 
Reports note that companies cited AI as a reason for thousands of layoffs in 
recent years, with an outplacement firm counting roughly 55,000 cuts in 2025 
that were tied to AI. Much of that hit was inside tech. Hayes sketches a rough 
scenario: a sizable drop in knowledge-worker employment would weaken mortgage 
and consumer credit repayment, which could then shave bank equity and tighten 
lending. The numbers he offers are approximate and built on multiple 
assumptions, but they are intended to show how a shock to white-collar 
paychecks could cascade into the credit system. Expectations About Central 
Bank Action Hayes expects a policy response if banks start to fail and credit 
freezes. He argues the Federal Reserve would step in with fresh liquidity, and 
that more money creation would follow — a move he says would be favorable for 
Bitcoin’s price outlook. That scenario has been a recurring theme in his 
commentary; past essays and posts have linked anticipated Fed liquidity to 
sharp rallies in crypto markets. Altcoin Bets And Fund Positioning His fund, 
Maelstrom, is said to plan staking or stablecoin deployments into privacy- 
focused and exchange-native plays once liquidity policy shifts occur, naming 
Zcash and Hyperliquid as examples. That kind of tactical stance is meant to 
profit from a short-term surge in risk assets after a policy pivot. Related 
Reading: XRP Emerges As The Crypto Everyone’s Talking About, Grayscale Says A 
Measured View This is a dramatic chain of events: AI job losses lead to credit 
losses, which cause bank stress, which forces the central bank to expand money 
supply, which lifts Bitcoin. Each link is plausible, but none is guaranteed. 
Some of Hayes’ figures are rough estimates meant to illustrate risk rather 
than to act as a precise forecast. Market history shows that central banks do 
sometimes step in, and that policy moves can power asset rallies, but outcomes 
depend on timing, scale and public confidence — factors that are hard to 
predict in advance. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin May Gain If AI Job Losses Trigger Bank Stress, Hayes Says

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