Bitcoin is currently at a crossroads, caught between bullish hopes and bearish 
pressure. Bulls are struggling to reclaim the $115K level, while bears have 
been unable to keep BTC below $110K, leaving the market in a tense state of 
uncertainty. This indecision comes as volatility increases ahead of the 
upcoming US Federal Reserve meeting, where investors expect a possible 
announcement on interest rate cuts. Such a decision could significantly impact 
risk assets, including Bitcoin, by shaping liquidity conditions in global 
markets. Related Reading: Ethereum Dominates Trading Volume Despite Market 
Cool-Off – Details Top analyst Axel Adler highlights that as of today, it has 
been 504 days since the last halving, a milestone that places the market in a 
mature phase of the bull regime. By comparing the current cycle with the 
previous two, Adler suggests that Bitcoin is showing characteristics 
consistent with late-cycle behavior. While this phase often brings heightened 
volatility and profit-taking, it also underscores the broader strength of the 
cycle, supported by institutional demand and long-term adoption trends. 
Bitcoin Redistribution Patterns Signal A Sustainable Cycle Adler explains that 
in this cycle, Bitcoin has displayed a unique redistribution pattern compared 
to past bull runs. In March, when BTC traded near $70,000, the market 
witnessed an extreme spike in Value Days Destroyed (VDD), a signal of 
significant long-term holder (LTH) activity. This was followed by two 
additional, but more moderate, distribution waves near $98,000 and $117,000. 
Importantly, these later waves did not surpass the March extremum, suggesting 
that selling pressure from LTHs has been segmented and less overwhelming than 
in prior cycles. This behavior points toward more sustainable redistribution, 
primarily due to institutional demand. Rather than one explosive top driven by 
panic or retail frenzy, supply is exiting in batches after each new all-time 
high. Institutional buyers, ETFs, and corporate treasuries are absorbing this 
selling, which spreads peaks across a longer period and creates stretched-out 
cycle dynamics. Looking ahead, final conclusions about the cycle’s ultimate 
peak hinge on the emergence of the Peak Flag, a well-established late-cycle 
signal. The Peak Flag is triggered when the spot price trades at roughly 11 
times higher than the LTH realized price. Historically, this ratio indicates 
that the market price has far outpaced the steadily climbing base cost of 
long-term holders. Based on current trajectories, the nearest window for such 
a setup is October–November 2025. However, this depends on conditions 
aligning: a surge in major LTH spending, a spike in short-term volatility, and 
then a gradual fading of that volatility. Related Reading: Bitcoin LTH Aging 
Velocity Turns Negative: Distribution Phase Unfolds Price Testing Short-Term 
Resistance Bitcoin is trading at $112,952, staging a rebound after holding 
above the $110K support zone. The chart shows BTC attempting to build 
momentum, but clear resistance lies around $114K, in line with the 100-day 
moving average (green line). A sustained move above this level would be 
critical to validate further upside. The 50-day moving average (blue line) is 
trending downward, currently acting as dynamic resistance and compressing 
price action. Until BTC reclaims it decisively, momentum remains fragile. On 
the downside, the 200-day moving average (red line) around $101,900 offers a 
deeper layer of long-term support, far below current levels. Related Reading: 
Old Bitcoin Supply Unlocks: 7,626 BTC Aged 3–5 Years Moves Onchain 
Structurally, BTC is forming a short-term higher low compared to early 
September, hinting at stabilization. However, bulls face the challenge of 
reclaiming lost ground quickly before bears reassert pressure. The broader 
resistance zone between $115K and $117K will likely determine whether BTC 
continues its consolidation or mounts a stronger recovery attempt. Holding 
above $110K keeps the bullish case intact, but without a breakout over 
$114K–$115K, Bitcoin risks slipping back into a choppy range. Traders should 
watch for volume confirmation on any breakout attempt. Featured image from 
Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin Market Absorbs Supply In Batches: VDD Highlights Mature Bull Phase

XRP is surging this week, with its price climbing past the key $3 level as 
bullish momentum builds across the market. At press time, XRP (XRP) is trading 
at $3.07, up nearly 4% on the day and extending a run…

XRP rally accelerates as price breaks above $3

Ondo Finance has welcomed global asset manager WisdomTree as the newest member 
of its Global Markets Alliance. Ondo Finance (ONDO) announced today that 
WisdomTree, a global asset manager with $131 billion in assets under 
management, has formally joined the Ondo…

WisdomTree joins Ondo Finance’s Global Markets Alliance

Hong Kong’s financial regulator has received expressions of interest from at 
least 77 institutions seeking a limited number of initial stablecoin licenses, 
as major global and regional banks move to secure market position. Industrial 
and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) and its Hong Kong arm, ICBC (Asia), 
reportedly notified the regulator of their intent, joining […]

Major Banks Vie for Hong Kong’s Scarce Stablecoin Licenses

Ripple will provide crypto custody services to Spain’s BBVA bank, expanding 
its existing partnership amid MiCA-driven adoption by European banks.

Cryptocurrency price in ILS