Solana failed to settle above $112 and extended losses. SOL price is now 
recovering above $102 but faces many hurdles near $108 and $110. SOL price 
started a decent recovery wave above $100 and $102 against the US Dollar. The 
price is now trading below $110 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. 
There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $108 on the 
hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The price could 
continue to move up if it clears $108 and $110. Solana Price Faces Resistance 
Solana price remained stable and started a decent recovery wave from $95, like 
Bitcoin and Ethereum. SOL was able to climb above the $100 level. There was a 
move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $119 
swing high to the $95.81 low. However, the bears are active below $110. There 
is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $108 on the hourly 
chart of the SOL/USD pair. Solana is now trading below $105 and the 100-hourly 
simple moving average. On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $108 
level, the trend line, and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move 
from the $119 swing high to the $95.81 low. The next major resistance is near 
the $110 level. The main resistance could be $115. A successful close above 
the $115 resistance zone could set the pace for another steady increase. The 
next key resistance is $122. Any more gains might send the price toward the 
$125 level. Another Decline In SOL? If SOL fails to rise above the $108 
resistance, it could continue to move down. Initial support on the downside is 
near the $101 zone. The first major support is near the $95 level. A break 
below the $95 level might send the price toward the $88 support zone. If there 
is a close below the $88 support, the price could decline toward the $80 zone 
in the near term. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for SOL/USD is 
gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly Hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – 
The RSI for SOL/USD is above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $101 and 
$95. Major Resistance Levels – $108 and $115.

Solana (SOL) Keeps $100 Alive, Recovery Push Faces First Test

Bitcoin slipped below the $80,000 level over the weekend as selling pressure 
intensified across global markets. Reinforcing a climate of uncertainty that 
has weighed heavily on risk assets in recent weeks. The move came amid broad 
weakness in equities, elevated volatility, and declining liquidity conditions, 
pushing many investors into a defensive posture. While the price action alone 
may resemble prior corrective phases, on-chain data suggest that the 
underlying market structure is beginning to change. A recent analysis from 
CryptoQuant indicates that Bitcoin is starting to exhibit characteristics 
historically associated with the early stages of bear markets. One of the 
clearest signals comes from the Supply in Loss (%) metric, which has climbed 
sharply to around 44% and continues to trend higher. This means a growing 
share of circulating BTC is now held at an unrealized loss. Reflecting 
increasing stress across market participants. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miner 
Fees Remain Near Cycle Lows: What Does This Signal? Importantly, Bitcoin is 
still trading above its Realized Price, suggesting the market has not yet 
reached full capitulation. However, the combination of rising losses and 
weakening price structure raises the risk that the current phase represents 
the transition into a broader bear market, rather than a temporary correction 
within an ongoing uptrend. Supply in Loss Signals Structural Shift Toward a 
Bear Market The report explains that Bitcoin’s current on-chain structure 
closely mirrors conditions observed at the onset of previous bear markets. 
Historically, several signals have tended to appear together at the start of 
prolonged downside phases rather than at the end of routine corrections. These 
include Supply in Loss expanding above roughly 40%, a simultaneous decline in 
Supply in Profit, and price remaining elevated relative to realized value. 
When these conditions align, they have typically marked the beginning of 
structural weakening, not a reset before another leg higher. The present setup 
fits this historical pattern. Supply in Loss has moved decisively above the 
40% threshold, while profitable supply is gradually contracting. This shift is 
occurring without widespread panic or capitulation. Indicating that losses are 
spreading across the supply in a controlled but persistent manner. This 
dynamic suggests a slow deterioration in market health, as more participants 
hold BTC at a loss while price struggles to recover meaningfully. Related 
Reading: Ethereum Trades At A Historical Accumulation Level: Can Bulls Hold 
$2,600 In past cycles, durable market bottoms only formed after Supply in Loss 
expanded further, usually alongside deeper price compression and a clearer 
capitulation phase. At current levels, those conditions have not yet been 
fully met. As a result, the data implies that the market is still in a 
transitional phase. This no longer resembles a mid-cycle dip. On-chain signals 
point to Bitcoin entering a bear market structure, with downside risk 
remaining unresolved until stronger signs of capitulation or structural 
stabilization emerge. Bitcoin Higher Timeframe Confirms Bearish Market 
Structure Bitcoin’s price structure has deteriorated sharply on the higher 
time frame, as shown by the 3-day chart. After months of consolidation below 
the prior all-time highs, BTC has now broken decisively below the $80K 
psychological level, with the latest close around $77,500. This move confirms 
a loss of medium-term support and marks a clear transition from distribution 
into downside continuation. From a trend perspective, price has slipped below 
the 50-period and 100-period moving averages, both of which are now rolling 
over. The 200-period moving average, still rising but flattening near the 
mid-$80K area, failed to act as durable support and now represents a major 
overhead resistance zone. Historically, sustained trading below these averages 
signals weakening trend strength and reduced probability of immediate trend 
recovery. Related Reading: XRP Risk-Adjusted Returns Signal Consolidation 
Rather Than Trend Formation – Details The recent sell-off also stands out for 
its impulsive character. Large bearish candles with limited lower wicks 
suggest aggressive selling pressure rather than orderly consolidation. Volume 
expanded on the breakdown, reinforcing the validity of the move and indicating 
forced exits rather than passive rebalancing. Structurally, the market is now 
forming lower highs and lower lows on this timeframe. Unless BTC can quickly 
reclaim the $80K–$85K region, downside risk remains dominant. In this context, 
the chart supports a bearish continuation. At best, a prolonged basing phase 
precedes any meaningful recovery attempt. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart 
from TradingView.com

Bitcoin Bear Market Signal Emerges: Supply in Loss Rises Above 40%

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