Bitcoin may no longer be moving in lockstep with the S&amp;P 500 over a short time 
frame, but that does not mean it has escaped the broader risk-off regime. In 
Axel Adler Jr.’s latest morning brief, the more important signal is not the 
breakdown in short-term correlation, but Bitcoin’s continued relative weakness 
against US equities. Bitcoin Weakens Against The S&amp;P 500 Adler’s argument 
rests on two charts that, taken together, push back on the increasingly 
familiar claim that a lower BTC-equity correlation automatically points to 
decoupling. The first is the 13-week BTC-S&amp;P correlation, which has recently 
turned negative and stayed below zero. On the surface, that could look 
constructive for Bitcoin. But Adler argues that the reading is easy to 
misinterpret. “The 13-week correlation measures how closely the weekly returns 
of BTC and the S&amp;P 500 have moved together over a short window,” he wrote. 
“Over recent weeks, the short-term correlation has turned negative and has 
been holding below zero. At first glance this might look like a loosening of 
the link between BTC and equities &#8211; but in practice it more likely reflects 
the choppy nature of recent weeks, where isolated Bitcoin bounces have 
alternated with continued weakness in the index.” Related Reading: OG Bitcoin 
On-Chain Models Could Hint At $46,000-$54,000 Floor: Analyst That distinction 
is central to the note. A falling or negative correlation only says that the 
two assets are no longer moving neatly together over that window. It does not 
say Bitcoin is strong. It does not say capital is treating BTC as a defensive 
asset. And it does not confirm that the market has begun to price Bitcoin 
independently of the same macro pressures hitting equities. For that, Adler 
points to the second chart: the BTC/S&amp;P price ratio. This is where the case 
for decoupling breaks down. The ratio, which tracks Bitcoin’s performance 
relative to the S&amp;P 500, has declined since the start of the year and remains 
under pressure. In practical terms, that means Bitcoin has been 
underperforming stocks even during periods when the short-term correlation has 
weakened. “What matters to the market here is not the fact of negative 
correlation per se, but whether it is accompanied by sustained BTC 
outperformance over the S&amp;P,” Adler wrote. “That confirmation is not there 
yet, so it is too early to talk about Bitcoin achieving genuine independence 
from the risk-off regime.” Related Reading: JPMorgan Says Bitcoin Is Beating 
Gold And Silver During The Iran War That framing matters because it shifts the 
focus away from a single statistical measure and back toward market behavior. 
If Bitcoin were truly decoupling, the relative-strength picture would likely 
be improving. Instead, Adler argues, the market is still assigning Bitcoin the 
role of a higher-beta risk asset, one with “higher risk and a larger drawdown 
amplitude” than the index. He makes the point even more explicitly in the 
note’s conclusion. “The market is currently sending an uncomfortable but 
fairly honest signal,” Adler wrote. “The S&amp;P 500 continues to decline, and BTC 
is not merely staying vulnerable to external risk-off pressure &#8211; it continues 
to underperform the index in relative terms. The prevailing regime remains 
risk-off.” In that framework, the more useful trigger to watch is not whether 
correlation stays negative for another week, but whether the BTC/S&amp;P ratio can 
reverse and hold higher. Adler says only “a new stable regime” of relative 
outperformance would support a real decoupling thesis. Until then, the market 
message remains straightforward: the relationship between Bitcoin and equities 
may have become less linear, but not less risk-sensitive. At press time, BTC 
traded at $66,652. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from 
TradingView.com

Bitcoin Isn’t Decoupling From Stocks Yet, And This Chart Shows Why

Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao has sought to calm fears over quantum 
computing, arguing that cryptocurrencies mainly need to migrate to 
post‑quantum encryption rather than brace for an existential collapse. In a 
new post on X, Zhao wrote that crypto…

CZ says quantum won’t kill crypto, calls for calm post‑quantum upgrade

Futures market activity continues to drive Bitcoin price, while insufficient 
buy-side spot demand shortens the length of bullish breakouts and pins BTC in 
a $10,000 range.

Bitcoin’s $10K range expected to hold until spot traders show up: Data

America holds roughly 38% of global Bitcoin mining capacity, and the 
specialized hardware powering that position comes overwhelmingly from Chinese 
manufacturers. Senators Bill Cassidy and Cynthia Lummis introduced the Mined 
in America Act on Mar. 30 to address that gap, proposing certification, 
domestic manufacturing support, and the codification of President Donald 
Trump&#8217;s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve […]
The post Washington moves to cut China out of the machines powering US Bitcoin 
mining appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Washington moves to cut China out of the machines powering US Bitcoin mining

Bitcoin closed March with a modest gain after a volatile session, swinging 
between $65,926 and $68,517 before settling above $67,500. Market Volatility 
and Geopolitical Catalysts On the final day of March, bitcoin navigated 
another volatile session, oscillating between $66,200 and a peak just around 
$68,500 before retracing to sub-$66,000 levels during the morning session. As 
[…]

Cryptocurrency price in DKK