Non-profit group Presidio Bitcoin has released a technical report examining 
the growing quantum computing risk to the Bitcoin network. The document looks 
at where quantum capabilities stand today, how much of BTC’s value could be 
exposed, what mitigations are already feasible, and how the wider ecosystem 
might coordinate a software update and migration. Why Upgrades Are Harder In A 
Decentralized System Presidio Bitcoin begins from a simple point: Bitcoin is 
software, and that is both its power and its weakness. Because it is built as 
a system of code, Bitcoin is relatively easy to move, verify, and hold. At the 
same time, it inherits digital risks that come with relying on cryptography. 
One of the most important of those risks has been discussed since Bitcoin’s 
early days—cryptographically relevant quantum computers, often shortened to 
CRQCs. Related Reading: XRP Could Face Big Moves Based On CLARITY Act Outcomes 
– 3 Key Price Scenarios In theory, a CRQC could break the elliptic curve 
cryptography that underpins Bitcoin by enabling the derivation of private keys 
from public keys. The report emphasizes that this would primarily enable 
quantum-enabled theft of coins tied to exposed public keys. The report argues 
that Bitcoin’s mitigation toolkit is broad and technically achievable today, 
but the path is less straightforward than it is for more centralized systems. 
In centralized environments, coordination can be directed more easily. With 
Bitcoin, coordinating upgrades across developers, users, wallets, custodians, 
and infrastructure is inherently more complex. There is also the risk of 
making changes too early, too quickly, or in a way that creates new 
vulnerabilities. Presidio also notes that post-quantum schemes come with 
meaningful trade-offs, not just technical but practical ones for the 
ecosystem. 6.5 Million Bitcoin Could Be At Risk At the center of the 
vulnerability is Shor’s algorithm. Presidio explains that if a sufficiently 
powerful quantum computer exists, it could execute Shor’s algorithm to derive 
private keys from exposed public keys. The report provides a stark 
quantitative estimate of what that could mean. If a cryptographically relevant 
quantum computer existed today, approximately 6.5 million BTC— one-third of 
the total supply—would be immediately vulnerable to theft. More than two- 
thirds of that exposure—about 4.5 million Bitcoin—comes from address reuse. 
Much of the reuse, the report says, is concentrated among a small group of 
large custodians that use the practice for simplicity. While that 
concentration increases the risk profile, Presidio also points out that this 
portion is reducible without any protocol change. The mitigation is 
straightforward in concept: rotate to fresh addresses. The remaining 
structural exposure is different in nature. Presidio estimates 1.72 million 
BTC sits in legacy pay-to-pubkey (P2PK) outputs, and the report notes that 
most of those are presumed lost. It also distinguishes another category: 
addresses that have never been spent and where only a hash of the public key 
is visible on-chain are not vulnerable at rest under current understanding. 
The Uncertain Clock For CRQCs A major part of the report is the uncertainty 
around timing. Presidio stresses that the timeline for CRQCs remains 
uncertain, with expert surveys placing the probability of cryptographically 
relevant machines emerging between 2030 and 2035 at about 50%. Even so, 
Presidio outlines a concrete strategy for Bitcoin network&#8217;s path forward. It 
involves deploying post-quantum signature schemes via a soft fork, rather than 
a disruptive hard change. Related Reading: Three-Way Bitcoin Outlook Tied To 
US–Iran War—Which Case Is Most Realistic? Activation is where timing matters 
most. Presidio says the Bitcoin ecosystem will likely complete the post- 
quantum signature activation well before a CRQC threat materializes. However, 
Chaincode’s playbook—referenced in the report—places activation around month 
6–7 if it does not happen earlier. After activation, migration would follow. 
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

What Presidio Bitcoin Found About Quantum Computing: Threat Timeline And Next Steps

Ripple is merging institutional finance and blockchain development into a 
broader New York event aimed at a more unified digital asset audience. The 
Swell 2026 format expands beyond past silos to include leaders, builders, and 
researchers. Key Takeaways: Ripple merged Swell and Apex into one event, 
expanding reach across finance and blockchain. XRP Ledger gains […]

One Event for Everyone: Ripple Combines Swell and Apex to Unite Finance Leaders, Developers, and Innovators

Dogecoin corrected some gains from the $0.0980 zone against the US Dollar. 
DOGE is now holding the $0.0920 support and remains at risk of more losses. 
DOGE price started a fresh downside correction below $0.0950. The price is 
trading above the $0.0920 level and the 100-hourly simple moving average. 
There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $0.0932 on the hourly 
chart of the DOGE/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The price could aim for 
a fresh increase if it remains stable above $0.0920. Dogecoin Price Dips Again 
Dogecoin price started a downside correction after it failed to surpass 
$0.0980, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. DOGE declined below the $0.0960 and 
$0.0950 levels. There was a move below the 50% Fib retracement level of the 
upward move from the $0.0903 swing low to the $0.0980 high. The price even 
spiked below $0.0930 before the bulls appeared. Dogecoin price is now trading 
above the $0.0920 level and the 100-hourly simple moving average. Besides, 
there is a bullish trend line forming with support at $0.0932 on the hourly 
chart of the DOGE/USD pair. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the 
$0.09430 level. The first major resistance for the bulls could be near the 
$0.0952 level. The next major resistance is near the $0.0965 level. A close 
above the $0.0965 resistance might send the price toward $0.0980. Any more 
gains might send the price toward $0.0988. The next major stop for the bulls 
might be $0.10. More Losses In DOGE? If DOGE’s price fails to climb above the 
$0.0952 level, it could continue to move down. Initial support on the downside 
is near the $0.0932 level and the trend line. The next major support is near 
the $0.09220 level or the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from 
the $0.0903 swing low to the $0.0980 high. The main support sits at $0.090. If 
there is a downside break below the $0.090 support, the price could decline 
further. In the stated case, the price might slide toward the $0.0880 level. 
Any more losses might call for a test of $0.0850. Technical Indicators Hourly 
MACD – The MACD for DOGE/USD is now gaining momentum in the bearish zone. 
Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for DOGE/USD is now below the 
50 level. Major Support Levels – $0.0920 and $0.0900. Major Resistance Levels 
– $0.0952 and $0.0965.

Dogecoin (DOGE) Stuck Under $0.10, Bulls Can’t Force Break Higher

The authors described it as a “private incentive to upgrade” because lost or 
frozen coins will make everyone else’s coins worth slightly more.

Bitcoiners propose freezing quantum-vulnerable coins in BIP-361

Bitwise&#8217;s Matt Hougan previously estimated that if Bitcoin captures 17% of the 
store-of-value market over the next decade, it could be worth $1 million a 
coin.

Cryptocurrency price in CNY