On-chain analytics firm Santiment has highlighted how the average Bitcoin 
returns of the buyers from the past year are looking similar to late 2022. 
365-Day Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Has Plunged Recently In a new post on X, Santiment 
has talked about the latest trend in the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized 
Value (MVRV) Ratio. This on-chain indicator measures the ratio between the 
market cap of the asset and its Realized Cap. The Realized Cap here refers to 
a capitalization model that calculates the total value of the cryptocurrency 
by assuming that the &#8216;real&#8217; value of each token in circulation is equal to the 
price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain. In short, this metric 
represents the sum of the capital stored in the asset by all investors. 
Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Score Surges To 30, Exits ‘Extra Bearish’ Zone 
Since the market cap is the amount held by investors in the present, its 
comparison with the Realized Cap in the MVRV Ratio tells us about the profit- 
loss status of the overall network. When the value of the metric is greater 
than 1, it means the investors are in a state of net unrealized loss. On the 
other hand, it being under the mark suggests the dominance of losses. In the 
context of the current topic, the MVRV Ratio of the entire market isn&#8217;t of 
interest, but rather that of two specific investor cohorts: 30-day and 365-day 
buyers. The MVRV Ratios of these groups naturally tell us about the average 
returns for coins purchased over the past month and past year, respectively. 
Now, here is the chart shared by Santiment that shows the trend in the 30-day 
and 365-day MVRV Ratios for Bitcoin over the last few years: As displayed in 
the above graph, the 30-day Bitcoin MVRV Ratio is currently sitting at the 
+2.8% mark, suggesting short-term buyers are in a state of slight profit. This 
could raise the chances of a profit-taking selloff occurring, but perhaps not 
by much as these returns aren&#8217;t significant enough to fall inside what the 
analytics firm defines as the &#8220;Danger Zone.&#8221; The picture is a bit different 
when it comes to the profitability of the 1-year investors. From the chart, 
it&#8217;s visible that the MVRV Ratio has plunged to the -26.6% mark for this 
group, which is well past the boundary for the &#8220;Opportunity Zone.&#8221; 
Interestingly, the last time that the indicator fell to such a low level was 
at the end of the 2022 Bitcoin bear market. &#8220;When the 365-day MVRV was 
severely negative following the FTX collapse, $BTC proceeded to rise +67% in 
the following 3 months,&#8221; noted Santiment. Related Reading: XRP Bollinger Bands 
Are Squeezing—Volatility Incoming? That said, while the current value is 
similar to back then, the structure itself more resembles that of mid-2022, 
since the metric has only recently plummeted to these levels, while in late 
2022, it was on the way back up. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is 
floating around $70,500, down nearly 1% over the last seven days. Featured 
image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin Returns Mirror Late-2022 Levels Seen Before 67% Rally: Santiment

Despite trading more than 40% below its all-time high, with $70,000 serving as 
a short-term support level, Bitcoin (BTC) may be poised for a repeat pattern 
that could lead to a 54% increase following this year&#8217;s US midterm elections. 
New research from cryptocurrency exchange Binance suggests that, historically, 
the aftermath of midterm elections has been positive for both the Bitcoin 
price and the S&amp;P 500. Will Bitcoin Follow Historical Patterns? The research 
shows that since 1939, the S&amp;P 500 has reported no negative returns in the 12 
months following midterm elections, averaging gains of 19%. In the same 
periods, Bitcoin has experienced an average rally of 54% across all three 
previously recorded midterm years. Binance&#8217;s analysis further reveals that 
midterm election years often lead to political volatility, resulting in 
average peak-to-trough drawdowns of about 16% for the S&amp;P 500—marking them as 
the weakest years in the four-year presidential cycle. Related Reading: Ripple 
Launches $750 Million Share Buyback, Boosting Valuation To $50 Billion 
Tracking Bitcoin from 2014 onward, the research indicates that the market’s 
leading cryptocurrency has mirrored these market dynamics, with an average 
decline of 56% during midterm years. The research emphasizes what they call 
“The Post-Election Opportunity,” as once election results are settled and 
uncertainties are cleared, markets historically tend to rally significantly. 
The exchange asserts that the year following midterm elections has been shown 
to be particularly strong for market returns, thus setting the stage for 
potential Bitcoin gains as well. If Bitcoin follows a similar trajectory, it 
could make a strong case for a rebound. However, potentially not toward new 
record highs. The cryptocurrency has fallen by an average of 70% from its 
previous all-time highs during previous bear market cycles. With Bitcoin’s 
bull market peak at $126,000, a potential decline to $37,800 could precede a 
54% surge pointed by Binance, potentially returning its price to nearly 
$58,000. However, some analysts are pointing out that the market bottom may 
already have been reached. Is The End Of The Bear Market Near? NewsBTC 
reported Wednesday that CryptoQuant analysts suggest that Bitcoin might be in 
the final stages of its bear market, especially after it dropped to $59,900 on 
February 6. Related Reading: White House Crypto Advisor Denounces Attempts To 
Sabotage CLARITY Act’s Goals Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating between 
$65,000 and $70,000, eyeing the key resistance level at $73,000. This phase 
may indicate a final accumulation stage of the bear cycle, which is often 
succeeded by substantial recoveries, albeit not in a straight path. With this 
pattern in mind, if Bitcoin maintains its current trading levels, the post- 
midterm elections in the US could propel the cryptocurrency back toward 
$107,000 for the first time since November 2025. Featured image from OpenArt, 
chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin Historically Surges 54% On Average Post-US Midterm Elections, Binance

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